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Is this the Holy Grail?

djb38 said:
I like the idea John. What happens if you apply and add the system to the 2 of slicers bets that we already know about, so that you're involved in 4 markets/bets?
Its at this point where my tiny brain struggles to comprehend all the permutations :confused:
Click to expand...

I've just looked at the odds on BF

germany v england

outsider england lay at 5.0
next goal germany lay at 1.72 not much liquidity
0-0ht lay at 3.3
0-0ft back at 14

Pick the bones from that!!
 
Back to the Slicer Bet!
I dug this up from Soccerwidow which appears to bear some relevance.
Holy Grail: Lay 0-0 at Half Time
Written by Soccerwidow | 20


I have come across an interesting riddle which is worthwhile mentioning on Soccerwidow… This mystery was presented by a Dr Slicer approximately two years ago in the Betfair Community Forum and still causes headaches for many people!

Dr Slicer describes that he found the ‘holy grail’ or a ‘no-lose strategy’ and since then he has not lost a single football bet which is suitable for his formula. The riddle is simple:

Placing 2 bets before kick off:
First bet: Laying 0-0 half time result
Second bet is guaranteed to lose should the first bet win

If the first bet loses a third bet is placed during half time and an adjustment of the second bet may be needed.

However, it is not revealed what bets 2 and 3 comprise.

The whole strategy with a calculated staking plan guarantees a profit between 9 to 12% per match. One more little thing: The matches must have a clear advantage for the home team. Whoever finds the answer will have found the holy grail
simple-smile.png


Here are a few links to some of the forums where this mystery has been discussed with many suggestions and thoughts, but without solutions:

Although in many forums it is said that this is a hoax and not possible… My opinion is that it is most certainly not a hoax. One must think ‘outside the box’ in order to find the identities of bets 2 and 3.

HINT: Don’t limit your thinking to the correct score market only and it’s not only the 0-0 full time result which is guaranteed to lose should the first bet win. Reverse engineering is needed to solve this riddle!

Can anyone find the solution?

Your Soccerwidow

So looking at the manual provided by Scooter Boy it states Bet 2 = Back FT 0-0 so could this indeed be Bet2?
You can wade through the links above, particularly Slicers Bet Attack.
Anyone got any constructive comments to offer? ;)
 
If anyone were to find the elusive third bet (providing the second bet is correct) my guess would be that the market would at least attempt to adapt to counteract the profit potential from the bets very quickly with traders descending on the markets like a swarm of locusts Delboy99 Delboy99.
Liquidity is also a likely limiter.

J
 
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*tom* said:
I've just looked at the odds on BF

germany v england

outsider england lay at 5.0
next goal germany lay at 1.72 not much liquidity
0-0ht lay at 3.3
0-0ft back at 14

Pick the bones from that!!
Click to expand...

So depending on your stakes and backing england at 1-0 down to green up for a small profit, an overall profit would have been made on this game
 
England were 9.00 to come back and win from behind and that was at 1-0 down! I suspect that this isn't the HG market we should look for but think along these lines, the liquidity will take a bit of a battering with just a few modest stakes. The b/e after the first German goal went in would have been around 22.0 but the market 'only' drifted to 14.5-15.0 for quite a while and it was that at HT; around the time when the Germans second goal went in it was around 110.0.

J
 
No one seems to be able to try anything here, so I'll make an assumption.
Bet 1 opens by saying lay 0-0 in half time market.
Bet 2 According to manual which may or may not be correct, states back full time market 0-0
Reading further into the manual looks like nothing to do if Bet 1 wins as profit is made.
There is action to take if Bet 1 goes down and we have to play around with a certain correct score at the odds quoted in the provided spreadsheet, seemingly until some Green is found here. Not done anything like this yet, but may have a play around when I get a minute. Anyone remotely interested could give it a go and see if anyone comes up with anything, at least it is worth a try.;)
 
Delboy99 said:
No one seems to be able to try anything here, so I'll make an assumption.
Bet 1 opens by saying lay 0-0 in half time market.
Bet 2 According to manual which may or may not be correct, states back full time market 0-0
Reading further into the manual looks like nothing to do if Bet 1 wins as profit is made.
There is action to take if Bet 1 goes down and we have to play around with a certain correct score at the odds quoted in the provided spreadsheet, seemingly until some Green is found here. Not done anything like this yet, but may have a play around when I get a minute. Anyone remotely interested could give it a go and see if anyone comes up with anything, at least it is worth a try.;)
Click to expand...

I think my comment in post #43 sums up my feelings Delboy99 Delboy99 and I also think several people have mentioned that if the bet was viable someone would have come up with it by now especially as traders on Betfair (well some anyway) are pretty fly and would have surely cracked it by now. Others have tried different angles (see Toms post top of this page); I don't feel that any of us are disinterested as such, it's probably the lack of any more real info to go on - which is where you can come in; what you say in your post is a truism - there looks to be just the two bets required there i.e. not a true Slicer bet at all, just a means of trading a match using those two markets. Maybe some further research on your part may turn up a real nugget of information?
I am aware of that item from Soccer widow from some time ago, in fact Tom's first post on this thread reignited my re-finding it.

We all (or at least I do) have half a dozen football and a few horse racing systems that we follow and have keep track of so time is unfortunately divided up between them.
If you find anything further I'm sure people will be able to respond likewise.
Slicers bet has certainly become the stuff of legend now.

atb, J
 
Scooter_Boy said:
I think my comment in post #43 sums up my feelings Delboy99 Delboy99 and I also think several people have mentioned that if the bet was viable someone would have come up with it by now especially as traders on Betfair (well some anyway) are pretty fly and would have surely cracked it by now. Others have tried different angles (see Toms post top of this page); I don't feel that any of us are disinterested as such, it's probably the lack of any more real info to go on - which is where you can come in; what you say in your post is a truism - there looks to be just the two bets required there i.e. not a true Slicer bet at all, just a means of trading a match using those two markets. Maybe some further research on your part may turn up a real nugget of information?
I am aware of that item from Soccer widow from some time ago, in fact Tom's first post on this thread reignited my re-finding it.

We all (or at least I do) have half a dozen football and a few horse racing systems that we follow and have keep track of so time is unfortunately divided up between them.
If you find anything further I'm sure people will be able to respond likewise.
Slicers bet has certainly become the stuff of legend now.

atb, J
Click to expand...

Hi there,

I've just joined the forum.

I don't think the bet was a hoax, more of an intellectual challenge. You certainly couldn't make serious money from it if you think about it..... the HT Correct Score market doesn't have enough liquidity in it to make serious money. That market, even in big games only has c£10,000 in it at KO. In most games you would become 'the market' pretty much with laying anything c£1000, which is what you'd need to do to return £100 if the other bet was back FT 0-0 for, say, £900.

The bet is achievable, but probably an intellectual Holy Grail only.

TWD
 
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T Thin White Duke, welcome to the forum.
I'm still not 100% sure what to make of it as any time someone raises the issue I go back to my notes and can't help myself beavering away at a solution once more just in case I might be overlooking something.
I hadn't seen Dr S posting about his miraculous approach for quite a while now, must be four years (2012-ish) he did yet again toss a little comment into the mix without giving anything away and that takes me to your point re: liquidity (in a round about fashion), if there were big bucks available he could have retired on the proceeds long ago which leads me to think that lack of liquidity meant small gains each time from a limited pool of matches.
I have had some thoughts that maybe the answer (if one truly exists) might lie in what Dr S hasn't said in that, one or other bets might be constructed differently to what people may have assumed thus far.
If you crack it - keep it to yourself. :) There may well be limited opportunities that would swamp the method if it became widely known.

atb, J
 
Hi Scooter Boy,

yes that's exactly true. Given the size of the HT 0-0 market it's impossible to make more than about £100 per game in my opinion, more likely much less than that, plus that assumes you are the only one using the method. I think Dr S went quiet as a few people worked it out and realised the same thing.

I'm fairly certain on how the method works, or how it used to work when the markets were a bit looser than they are now. I've tested it a few times with varying levels of success and I'm sure that the tightening of the markets means that it won't work every time now as it may have done in the past.

I'm going to run some tests in the next few days to see what it looks like now as I haven't looked at it myself for well over 2 years.

Cheers,

TWD
 
Thin White Duke said:
Hi Scooter Boy,

yes that's exactly true. Given the size of the HT 0-0 market it's impossible to make more than about £100 per game in my opinion, more likely much less than that, plus that assumes you are the only one using the method. I think Dr S went quiet as a few people worked it out and realised the same thing.

I'm fairly certain on how the method works, or how it used to work when the markets were a bit looser than they are now. I've tested it a few times with varying levels of success and I'm sure that the tightening of the markets means that it won't work every time now as it may have done in the past.

I'm going to run some tests in the next few days to see what it looks like now as I haven't looked at it myself for well over 2 years.

Cheers,

TWD
Click to expand...

Hmm..... interesting......

I tested this tonight on a few games. 2 of them got to 0-0 at HT. One of the games had a low FT 0-0 price of 11.5 and the other one was 25.0. The 25.0 game was weird in that BF seemed to be running 5 mins behind the actual match itself so that may have affected the markets and I was unable to create a profit. The 11.5 game was interesting in that I was able to create a profit when previously that hasn't happened with such a low FT 0-0 starting price.

I've created profit when starting FT 0-0 price has been 20+ before so not sure why it didn't this time. If I can repeat the 11.5 match again then there may be some mileage in this.

Further investigation required but I'm now certain as to how the method should/did work. That said I'm not sure it works with certainty in today's markets. One option might be to use Smarkets with its lower commission rate.

More testing Sat/Sun.
 
Thin White Duke said:
Hmm..... interesting......

I tested this tonight on a few games. 2 of them got to 0-0 at HT. One of the games had a low FT 0-0 price of 11.5 and the other one was 25.0. The 25.0 game was weird in that BF seemed to be running 5 mins behind the actual match itself so that may have affected the markets and I was unable to create a profit. The 11.5 game was interesting in that I was able to create a profit when previously that hasn't happened with such a low FT 0-0 starting price.

I've created profit when starting FT 0-0 price has been 20+ before so not sure why it didn't this time. If I can repeat the 11.5 match again then there may be some mileage in this.

Further investigation required but I'm now certain as to how the method should/did work. That said I'm not sure it works with certainty in today's markets. One option might be to use Smarkets with its lower commission rate.

More testing Sat/Sun.
Click to expand...

Hmm.... so sometimes it works and sometimes not. I guess the markets are just too tight now and wise to the Slicer Method. Looking at the market movements and volumes of trading, people are still definitely using it but they can't be making much if anything from what I can garner.
 
Hi,

This thread was partly the reason I wanted to join this forum, over the years I have contemplated the makeup of the so called “Holy grail system” when I read about it in the Betfair forum.

Recently on another website the Holy Grail system was casually dropped into a post as a way of comparing to a hoax. A member replied he had come across the system and tried to piece it together and stumbled on a way of making money. Safe to say he didn’t want reveal his findings, but did provoke some thought by writing that people should think outside the box, not quite sure what he meant by that.

So I looked at this puzzle again and did stumble on something that merited further investigation. Hasten to add don’t want to go into detail on the back of handful of games as it could be misleading.

I don’t know if anyone else has got any new angles, but here are some thought provoking questions…..

Are we sure that bets 1 and 2 are the correct way round?

I read in thread that one market was turned red; this struck a chord with some opportunities that arose at half time in a few matches I came across.

Are particular matches with odds on favourites with low 0-0 FT odds good for the system?

Do bookmaker’s odds in some markets give a better understanding of half time price? On this question I know soccer mystic (Bet Angel) predicts odds, but I found these odds to be way off mark.

So what do we think?
 
T tom,

Remember this, I'm pretty sure it was a hoax and not the holy grail bet.

When I looked at the possibility of the holy grail bet again few weeks back I started to look at the two bets we assumed that were lay 0-0 ht and back 0-0 ft and wondered if bet 3 was about reinvesting profits from the back 0-0 ft when laid off at half time if the score was 0-0. If I had £200 green on 0-0 ft when I laid of original stake I thought about laying the total goals my to the liability of the green minus ht cs market loss then using the two potential greens and maybe backing something else like the fav not having a clean sheet.

What I have found instead and it happened again last night was when a clear favourite struggled with a 0-0 ht the odds seem to create a profit using my recent theory, all I will say is my new theory is based on one of my questions above.
Are bets 1 and 2 in the correct order?

Don't want to go into more detail as my research needs more stats and testing.

One other point from another thread elsewhere on the internet, a poster claimed to not bother with making 12% from the bet winning at half time, they preferred a profit of approximately 50% if the system went into second half when 0-0 at ht.
 
Thin White Duke said:
Hmm.... so sometimes it works and sometimes not. I guess the markets are just too tight now and wise to the Slicer Method. Looking at the market movements and volumes of trading, people are still definitely using it but they can't be making much if anything from what I can garner.
Click to expand...
So any updates on the method you found out mate ? As you said it is tight enough, so it is better to prove that it did exists... dont want another lochness monster... :)
 
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