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Correct Score Multiple Cash-Out Strategy

Trader_jack

Trader_jack

Yearling
Hello everyone and good afternoon :hi:, hope you all had/are having a good day with your betting/trading.

I thought I'd distract everyone for a moment from the "usual" betting/trading angles with an idea I've been revisiting on and off for a while, which I describe as Cash Out Correct Score Trading. Note: If this has been done before elsewhere I apologise in advance, I just found myself in this enviable situation a few times and vowed to return there by design one day..

So I've been trying to replicate the situation where I get a decent cash-out offer on Betfair on a football multiple (Lucky 15's and upwards) using Correct Scores. The only condition is that all the games must start at the same time, then you just pick your predicted score line for each game and wait.

I've been close a couple of times (got 2 scores correct but the others 0-0 FT etc., or had all scores at HT and of course more goals came), so you always then have the problem of whether to cash-out or not during the games (take a small loss, win £30 or go for £50k?).

So on this thread I'm going to only review any cash-out offers at half time and then again at 60 minutes, and depending on the scores (have any scores been reached already etc.?) and how likely it is to improve or not as well as how much profit (if any) is available, I will cash-out at one of those times.

When I've come close those odd couple of times the cash-out offers have been well below the possible payout, but usually between 5-10 times the total stake if you're close (i.e. you have 2-1 FT and it's currently 1-1 or 2-0), so still a very good return I think you will agree.

Match selection plays a huge part in that the higher the score line the better the odds will be (think 2-1 upwards), but is it that easy to find those types of games?

I'm using a football prediction system I created myself (I have another thread on here where I'm testing the Match Outright/Over 2.5 Goal selections it produces, feel free to come and watch me crash and burn) but I do seem to be finding quite a few games that end 3-2/2-2/3-1/4-2 etc. (and I'd backed 2-1 when I got the offers) so I will post them here as a test.

I have had a glance at some other games that are predicted low-scoring affairs in my system, but if you go for say 1-0 or 2-0 and the underdog lets call them scores at any point, that's it you've blown the bet already. So I believe there's some mileage in going for higher scores as no matter who scores first we're still in the game.

That's the last piece of the puzzle I think is to identify those scores with the highest mathematical probability of occurring in the most half time/60 mins scenarios, which is potentially all scores I know so I will be using my system correct score strike rates to try and help narrow those down a bit if possible.

There will not be that many selections I think so let's see how it goes, it won't be particularly scientific either other than as said I will choose to cash-out either at half time or 60 mins (I will do a smaller stakes identical bet to let run at the bookies just in case that mega-bet comes in :dance2:) and I don't know if some screen grabs of the Betfair cash-out window/receipt will suffice as evidence (although I'm thinking this is a bit of fun with a logical(?) strategy behind it so let's not get carried-away just yet).

I will play for the minimum stake (10p in old money) and we will see what the Good Lord and Lady Luck may bring.

As always I welcome all opinions so feel free to chime in:bigboss:.


Here are the selections for tonight:
Lucky 31 (x31) stake: £3.10 pot. return:£5,117.48

Partizan Belgrade vs Cukaricki 8 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

RNK Split vs Dinamo Zagreb 4.4 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score

Radnik Surdulica vs Vojvodina 8 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score

Ruzomberok vs Zemplin 8 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Spartak Myjava vs Zlate Moravce 12 -- -- Open
3-1 - Correct Score

Thanks.
 
Just thinking that I will possibly come up with a target profit amount (10 times the stake or something) that would trigger an immediate cash-out but I will see how it goes first - and does that sound greedy?
 
Thanks Graeme Graeme , to get last weeks results out of the way:

Partizan Belgrade vs Cukaricki 8 -- -- Result: 1-2 Loss
2-1 - Correct Score

RNK Split vs Dinamo Zagreb 4.4 -- -- Result: 0-1 Loss
1-2 - Correct Score

Radnik Surdulica vs Vojvodina 8 -- -- Result: 1-0 Loss
1-2 - Correct Score

Ruzomberok vs Zemplin 8 -- -- Result: 1-2 Loss
2-1 - Correct Score

Spartak Myjava vs Zlate Moravce 12 -- -- Result: 1-0 Loss
3-1 - Correct Score

So a total loss of stake to get started so:

-£3.10 P/L
-100% ROI


And here (although it will be taken with a grain of salt I'm sure) is a screen grab of a bet I had earlier the same day that actually went exactly the way I would want for these, but I hadn't used the same set of selections for the subsequent post as there weren't any left to play that day. Note: All the scores did change but that's the crux of this-need to be there or thereabouts around about 60--65 minutes and then we should get some offers.

I'm therefore changing the selection process and will be ready again for Saturday to start with these new selections and see how we go (of course now they'll be rubbish!).

One thing I have been noticing is that some prices in the multiples are woeful (i.e RNK Split vs Dinamo Zagreb CS FT 2-1 only 4.4!!!!) - why is that?

I will keep an eye on that with a view to excluding any with such ridiculously low odds in future, hopefully won't be too many.

I will post the next set of picks Saturday morning, depending on the number of matches that get selected I may post more than one multiple, but will keep it to Lucky 15's/31's/63's or a combination of those.

Good luck to everyone this coming weekend.
 

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Hi Trader_jack Trader_jack agree with Graeme Graeme this is a very interesting idea and surely there must be many angles to look it which will no doubt keep you busy!

When i saw the screen grab i was surprised at how low the cash out option was compared to the potential, but on further thought with 25 minutes to play plus injury time the chances of those gaems remaining without a further goal are low. (Which of course was the case)
Rather than waiting for a certain time of the games i prefer your idea of a target return, maybe 10x is too high but i would take a target profit at 45 minutes and be happy rather than wait another 15 -20.

A couple of thoughts / questions.
Have you put on correct score (2-1 / 1-2) singles and monitored how the price / cashout moves depenant on score & time? obviously all games are different but this could give you clearer picture on the movements which you can than apply to the much more confusing multiples?
One other idea, in the scenario above you could cash out for a nice profit, and would of course be gutted if there were no further goals. Could you cash out and then place a series of singles bets on the same games, ignoring the middlesbro game lets say 5 x 1 quid singles, for either 2-1 or if there is such a market, no further goals. No idea if the odds make this worthwhile but something to look at?

All the best and i will follow with interest!
 
Thanks for your thoughts Thirsty1907 Thirsty1907 and I agree the set profit method will probably be best (but as you say a bit nerve-wracking!!), as that's more of a trading approach rather than outright gambling.

To cover the inevitable early cashout and then no more goals get scored say until 80 minutes (would love to see the cashout offer then!) I've been backing the next overs for each depending on time (if reasonably early go for next two overs, if late get decent enough odds on just the next one), but I think the simple answer is to have two separate bets and cashout one and let the other run. Of course that means twice the layout to begin with but I've no problem with that once I get a better feel for which games and scores will result in the most frequent/best offers.

Regarding the odds movements they seem very erratic to me as I've had some where it was 1-1 or 2-0 in the games and I had 2-1 for all of them but the cashout was negative! Other times there's no cashout offer (had that a few times too) and others got offers before halftime, so I'm still trying to understand how this all works assuming there are some "mechanics" behind it.

I do trade these scores individually as well and it doesn't seem to correspond very much to the multiple offers, I can usually trade out of the scores for a profit once it gets close (1-1/2-0) unless it's very early in the game (think 20 mins).

I have been trying to select particular kinds of games to see if that makes a difference (heavy favs, traditional high/low-scoring fixtures etc.) but will have to see how that pans out over a period of time.

I'm finalising today's picks now so will post those shortly.

Thanks and good luck to all.
 
Ok here are today's correct score predictions, there were more but they were not covered by Betfair.

I do have two sets of picks for this strategy which are based around how confident I am of the outright win (obviously easier if we know who will win) but the secondary picks are slightly less-fancied.

For today I'll test both so here we go:

Strategy 1 (Fav fancied):

Lucky 63 (x63) stake:£6.30 pot return:£248856.20 Open

Brentford vs Fulham 9.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

FK Ventspils vs FS METTA LU 11 -- -- Open
3-1 - Correct Score

Nybergsund vs Honefoss 10 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Truro City vs Wealdstone 17 -- -- Open
3-2 - Correct Score

Vindbjart vs Floy Flekkeroy 9.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Dunfermline vs Peterhead 8.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

_____________________________________________________________________
Strategy 2 (Slightly less-fancied favs):

Lucky 63 (x63) stake:£6.30 pot return:£203712.20 Open

Frigg vs Nest-Sotra 11 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score

Glentoran vs Crusaders 8.5 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score

Hobro vs Sonderjyske 8.5 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score

SV Grodig vs Rapid Vienna 8 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score

York City vs Bristol Rovers 21 -- -- Open
2-3 - Correct Score

Sociedad vs Real Madrid 8.5 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score
 
Posting today's now as about to start, will recap previous results later:

14:00:17
Lucky 15 (x15) AC Milan vs Frosinone, Empoli vs Bologna
Stake:£ 1.50
Pot return:£ 2,633.30 Open

AC Milan vs Frosinone 11 -- -- Open 3-1 - Correct Score

Empoli vs Bologna 9.5 -- -- Open 2-1 - Correct Score

Palermo vs Sampdoria 8.5 -- -- Open 2-1 - Correct Score

Sassuolo vs Verona 21 -- -- Open 3-2 - Correct Score
 
Yesterday's results below, didn't get any cashout offers as didn't get close enough with the scores:

Lucky 63 (x63) Frigg vs Nest-Sotra, Glentoran vs Crusaders

staked:£6.30

return:£ 0.85

P/L: -£5.45

Frigg vs Nest-Sotra 11 -- -- Lost final score: 0-2
1-2 - Correct Score

Glentoran vs Crusaders 8.5 -- -- Lost final score: 0-1
1-2 - Correct Score

Hobro vs Sonderjyske 8.5 -- -- Won final score: 1-2
1-2 - Correct Score

SV Grodig vs Rapid Vienna 8 -- -- Lost final score: 2-0
1-2 - Correct Score

York City vs Bristol Rovers 21 -- -- Lost final score: 1-4
2-3 - Correct Score

Sociedad vs Real Madrid 8.5 -- -- Lost final score: 0-1
1-2 - Correct Score


Lucky 63 (x63) Brentford vs Fulham, FK Ventspils vs FS METTA LU

staked:£6.30

return:£ 0.00

P/L: -£6.30

Brentford vs Fulham 9.5 -- -- Lost final score: 3-0
2-1 - Correct Score

FK Ventspils vs FS METTA LU 11 -- -- Lost final score: 0-1
3-1 - Correct Score

Nybergsund vs Honefoss 10 -- -- Lost final score: 2-0
2-1 - Correct Score

Truro City vs Wealdstone 17 -- -- Lost final score: 1-2
3-2 - Correct Score

Vindbjart vs Floy Flekkeroy 9.5 -- -- Lost final score: 3-2
2-1 - Correct Score

Dunfermline vs Peterhead 8.5 -- -- Lost final score: 1-0
2-1 - Correct Score
 
Here are today's selections..

Lucky 63 (10px63)
stake:£6.30
pot. return:£ 80,412.65

AFC Wimbledon vs Newport County 8.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Accrington S vs Stevenage 8 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Bristol Rovers vs Dag and Red 10 -- -- Open
3-1 - Correct Score

Oxford Utd vs Wycombe 8.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Plymouth vs Hartlepool 8 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Randers vs Hobro 9 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score
 
Last Sunday's picks below all lost, I will calculate the overall running P/L at the end of the day.

14:00:17
Lucky 15 (x15) AC Milan vs Frosinone, Empoli vs Bologna
Stake:£ 1.50
Pot return:£ 2,633.30 Open

AC Milan vs Frosinone 11 -- -- Open 3-1 - Lost

Empoli vs Bologna 9.5 -- -- Open 2-1 - Lost

Palermo vs Sampdoria 8.5 -- -- Open 2-1 - Lost

Sassuolo vs Verona 21 -- -- Open 3-2 - Lost
 
Have two sets of picks for today:

Lucky 15 (10px15)
stake:£ 1.50
pot. return:£ 897.65

Odd vs Bodo Glimt 9.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

RB Leipzig vs Karlsruhe 8 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Slavia Prague vs Slovacko 8.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Utsiktens vs Tvaakers 9 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

__________________________________________________________________________

Lucky 31 (x31)
stake:£3.10
pot. return:£15,082.10

BATE Borisov vs Slutsk 15 -- -- Open
3-1 - Correct Score

Ciudad Rodrigo CF vs CD Becerril 9.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Hajduk Split vs Inter Zapresic 8 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Maccabi Petach Tikva vs Maccabi Netanya 8.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Mar Menor CF vs CD Plus Ultra 9.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score


Good luck all today, enjoy the sunshine!
 
No good last week so running P/L is :-£24.15

I did have one other bet that came close (of course its always the ones you don't post!) but I think it shows again that the scores need to be thereabouts around 70 minutes or so to get an offer.

I'm reviewing my selections but don't have any goal timings for them only half time scores, so not sure I can do much to improve in that area. It may be that the low-scoring games are better for prediction
but as said before any win-to-nil scores are scuppered immediately by the underdog scoring....

Will be back on Saturday to try some selections from another system to see if they get closer to these "target" scores.

Image1.jpg
 
Ok here we go for today's set of selections all kicking-off at 5pm:

Lucky 63 (10px63)
stake:£6.30
pot. return:£133,046.45

Balikesirspor vs 1461 Trabzon 8 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Haukar vs KA Akureyri 9.5 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score

SPG Pasching-LASK Jnrs vs ATSV Stadl-Paura 11 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Trans Narva vs Nomme Kalju 8.5 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score

Valencia B vs Atletico Baleares 8.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Mo IL vs Tromsdalen 12 -- -- Open
1-3 - Correct Score
 
Ok here's a last-minute second set of selections (bit behind today sorry):

Lucky 31 (10px31)
stake:£3.10
pot. return:£13,067.90

Domzale vs NK Celje 9 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Gorica vs Koper 10 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Krka vs NK Maribor 11 -- -- Open
1-3 - Correct Score

Rudar vs Olimpija 8 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score

Zavrc vs Krsko 10 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score
 
I will update stats later but didn't get any offers anyway so another set of losses, have to go out now so here are today's picks which I will monitor on my 'phone.

Good luck to everyone.

Lucky 15 (10px15)
stake:£1.50
pot. return:£ 997.4

Braunschweig vs Fortuna Dusseldorf 8.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Sporting Goa vs Aizawl 9 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

St Pauli vs Kaiserslautern 9.5 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Union Berlin vs Freiburg 9 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lucky 63 (10px63)
stake:£6.30
pot. return:£111,731.30

Duisburg vs RB Leipzig 8.5 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score
FC Heidenheim vs Bochum 10 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score
FSV Frankfurt vs 1860 Munich 10 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score
Greuther Furth vs SV Sandhausen 8 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score
Karlsruhe vs Arminia Bielefeld 8 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score
Paderborn vs Nurnberg 11 -- -- Open
1-2 - Correct Score
 
Forgot to post these for later:

Lucky 63 (10px63)
stake:£6.30
pot. return:£ 219,542.30 Open

Benfica vs Nacional 11 -- -- Open
3-1 - Correct Score

Fenerbahce vs Genclerbirligi 10 -- -- Open
3-1 - Correct Score

Legia Warsaw vs Pogon Szczecin 11 -- -- Open
3-1 - Correct Score

Red Bull Salzburg vs Wolfsberger AC 8 -- -- Open
2-1 - Correct Score

Zenit St Petersburg vs Lokomotiv 13 -- -- Open
3-1 - Correct Score

Kasimpasa vs Mersin Idman Yurdu 10 -- -- Open
3-1 - Correct Score
 
No joy so far, running P/L: - £47.65.

I'm struggling to find enough of my system selections starting at the same time, so am trying a different strategy to include games that were not selections and see how I go.

Here are today's bets:


14:11:19 Lucky 15 (10px15)

stake:£ 7.50
pot. return:£ 4,286.38 Open


Guarani SP vs Guaratingueta
2-1 - Correct Score
8.5 -- -- Open


Santos vs Coritiba
2-1 - Correct Score
9 -- -- Open


Young Boys vs FC Basel
2-1 - Correct Score
8.5 -- -- Open


Hobro vs FC Copenhagen
1-2 - Correct Score
8.5 -- -- Open



__________________________________________________________________________________________
These games are not all starting at the same time but they are all the same selection types, so I'm including them too.

14:00:37 Lucky 31 (10px31)


stake:£ 3.10
pot. return:£ 56,783.90 Open


Dinamo Minsk vs Vitebsk
3-1 - Correct Score
13 -- -- Open


Hobro vs FC Copenhagen
1-3 - Correct Score
12 -- -- Open


Shakhter Soligorsk vs Dinamo Brest
3-1 - Correct Score
12 -- -- Open


Elfsborg vs Jonkopings Sodra
3-1 - Correct Score
11 -- -- Open


Flandria vs Deportivo Armenio
3-1 - Correct Score
19 -- -- Open
 
Last weeks results:

Lucky 15 (50px15) Guarani SP vs Guaratingueta, Santos vs Coritiba
stake:£7.50
return:£ 4.50 Settled

Guarani SP vs Guaratingueta
2-1 - Correct Score
8.5 -- -- Lost

Santos vs Coritiba
2-1 - Correct Score
9 -- -- Won


Young Boys vs FC Basel
2-1 - Correct Score
8.5 -- -- Lost


Hobro vs FC Copenhagen
1-2 - Correct Score
8.5 -- -- Lost



Lucky 31 (10px31)
stake:£ 3.10
return:£ 1.20 Settled


Dinamo Minsk vs Vitebsk
3-1 - Correct Score
13 -- -- Lost


Hobro vs FC Copenhagen
1-3 - Correct Score
12 -- -- Lost


Shakhter Soligorsk vs Dinamo Brest
3-1 - Correct Score
12 -- -- Won


Elfsborg vs Jonkopings Sodra
3-1 - Correct Score
11 -- -- Lost


Flandria vs Deportivo Armenio
3-1 - Correct Score
19 -- -- Lost


So managed to pick one correct on each bet but not close enough with the others to get any offers, so running P/L: -£52.55.
 
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