Back to basics
- Thread starter Jackform
- Start date
Chesham
Sire
Hi Jackform
my Pen Name was Classform when writing into the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book Forum, some years ago now mind.
Downey
Most formula's for the ERin numbers struggle in relation to Beacon Light as the link horse is Sea Pigeon, it was the last time out fall in America that causes the problem and so they move to his last race before that.
Monksfield is another as do they take 10, for the duck head, zero, that at least one Sporting newspaper had next to his name or the Form Book 6th, only one of those numbers can be used to arrive at the 16 next to Monksfield.
Personally I never bother to work out the Erin Numbers for a Race, but prefer to look for Consistant Form
Zilzal won LTO the horse who came 2nd Green Line Express won LTO was 3/1 2nd fav and had beaten the odds on Favourite.
The horse who came 3rd to Zilzal Markofdistinctio had won LTO and was odds on favourite.
Really you are looking for a strong line of form
Good Luck
Chesham
my Pen Name was Classform when writing into the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book Forum, some years ago now mind.
Downey
Most formula's for the ERin numbers struggle in relation to Beacon Light as the link horse is Sea Pigeon, it was the last time out fall in America that causes the problem and so they move to his last race before that.
Monksfield is another as do they take 10, for the duck head, zero, that at least one Sporting newspaper had next to his name or the Form Book 6th, only one of those numbers can be used to arrive at the 16 next to Monksfield.
Personally I never bother to work out the Erin Numbers for a Race, but prefer to look for Consistant Form
Zilzal won LTO the horse who came 2nd Green Line Express won LTO was 3/1 2nd fav and had beaten the odds on Favourite.
The horse who came 3rd to Zilzal Markofdistinctio had won LTO and was odds on favourite.
Really you are looking for a strong line of form
Good Luck
Chesham
formtheory
Stallion
Hi Downey!
I think V.D.W used the weight Drumagora carried in the Erin, which was 2lb more than when facing P.King LTO and took that from it's last race.
So he faced P.King on 17lb worse terms.
I think V.D.W used the weight Drumagora carried in the Erin, which was 2lb more than when facing P.King LTO and took that from it's last race.
So he faced P.King on 17lb worse terms.
formtheory
Stallion
P.s If VDW used Drumagora as the key horse he was carrying 15lb less LTO compared to Drumagora.
Bobajobber
Mare
I am reluctant to post any VDW due to the degeneration of the threads, but I thought I would offer an opinion on the matter of the Erin numbers.
If we are to take the opinion that VDW is giving it piece by piece, then we have keep this in mind at all times, most who opinion themselves on these figures believe they the answer to all of it, they have been labelled as probables and assumptions all over the place believe that these figures have to be solely found to find the 3 selections, this not the case.
If you read the 'Erin letter' we are governed by two factors that are coupled together and a set of numbers are given.
One of the factors is questioned by Methodmaker and the other is applauded by him,VDW then expands on the whole matter of consistency,by first telling us, disregarding 'EVERYTHING' except the last 3 'FORM' placing and offered up one set of percentage figures, the VDW expands even more by saying 'USING METHODMAKER'S FIGURES' and miraculously two more sets of figures appear.
Anyone with any ounce of grey matter understands that VDW has given you two factors : FORM & ODDS these are elements of consistency and if I am not mistaken Chesham has pointed out on several occasions how and why ODDS can be seen consistently, so surely these factors are evident in his Erin numbers.
In fact I will go as far enough to explain that there are three sets of completely different types of consistency.
It would be completely useless to use 3 sets of Erin number for the consistency figures or maybe the 2nd numerical or as a matter of fact, three sets of consistency rating, because they are only measuring one particular part of consistency , in order to attain a more accurate view of consistency, you need a measure of the selections, a measure of the race and a measure of the horses surrounding or involved and the same can be said for CLASS.
Nothing should be equated in isolation.
The Erin numbers are but a measure of consistent form, they are not the be all and end all, they are one piece of a big puzzle.
There are no errors, these can only be seen this way if you make them that way.
I hope that helps someone.
If we are to take the opinion that VDW is giving it piece by piece, then we have keep this in mind at all times, most who opinion themselves on these figures believe they the answer to all of it, they have been labelled as probables and assumptions all over the place believe that these figures have to be solely found to find the 3 selections, this not the case.
If you read the 'Erin letter' we are governed by two factors that are coupled together and a set of numbers are given.
One of the factors is questioned by Methodmaker and the other is applauded by him,VDW then expands on the whole matter of consistency,by first telling us, disregarding 'EVERYTHING' except the last 3 'FORM' placing and offered up one set of percentage figures, the VDW expands even more by saying 'USING METHODMAKER'S FIGURES' and miraculously two more sets of figures appear.
Anyone with any ounce of grey matter understands that VDW has given you two factors : FORM & ODDS these are elements of consistency and if I am not mistaken Chesham has pointed out on several occasions how and why ODDS can be seen consistently, so surely these factors are evident in his Erin numbers.
In fact I will go as far enough to explain that there are three sets of completely different types of consistency.
It would be completely useless to use 3 sets of Erin number for the consistency figures or maybe the 2nd numerical or as a matter of fact, three sets of consistency rating, because they are only measuring one particular part of consistency , in order to attain a more accurate view of consistency, you need a measure of the selections, a measure of the race and a measure of the horses surrounding or involved and the same can be said for CLASS.
Nothing should be equated in isolation.
The Erin numbers are but a measure of consistent form, they are not the be all and end all, they are one piece of a big puzzle.
There are no errors, these can only be seen this way if you make them that way.
I hope that helps someone.
formtheory
Stallion
Hi Bob!
Nice Post!
Not sure what you mean by degeneration of the threads though?
I feel everyone has been getting on well and sharing thoughts?
Hope your well.
Nice Post!
Not sure what you mean by degeneration of the threads though?
I feel everyone has been getting on well and sharing thoughts?
Hope your well.
Jackform
Mare
Years ago, everything I do now comes from years ago it seems, that's being in the position of having more to look back on than to look forward too 
. Anyway, I used to rate the top three of each basic VDW filter - betting, £ class, consistency, Formcast, RPR and come up with an overall rating as well as the stars. It is even possible to covert the rating to fair odds to get some idea of what the prices could be. Having already assessed the Bath 4.30 twice today I have had another go at it:
1. 02010 = 2* score 3 = 12/1
2. 01000 = 1* score 1 = 35/1
3. 13011 = 4* score 6 = 11/2
4. 20332 = 4* score 10 = 11/4
5. 31212 = 5* score 9 = 10/3
6. 01100 = 2* score 2 = 18/1
7. 01010 = 2* score 2 =18/1
8. 01013 = 3* score 5 = 13/2
9. 00000 = 0* score 0 = ?
10. 00000 = 0* score 0 =?
. Anyway, I used to rate the top three of each basic VDW filter - betting, £ class, consistency, Formcast, RPR and come up with an overall rating as well as the stars. It is even possible to covert the rating to fair odds to get some idea of what the prices could be. Having already assessed the Bath 4.30 twice today I have had another go at it:1. 02010 = 2* score 3 = 12/1
2. 01000 = 1* score 1 = 35/1
3. 13011 = 4* score 6 = 11/2
4. 20332 = 4* score 10 = 11/4
5. 31212 = 5* score 9 = 10/3
6. 01100 = 2* score 2 = 18/1
7. 01010 = 2* score 2 =18/1
8. 01013 = 3* score 5 = 13/2
9. 00000 = 0* score 0 = ?
10. 00000 = 0* score 0 =?
Jackform
Mare
Chepstow 3.20 as per yesterday, which didn't set the forum alight 
. Couple of newcomers in this race that could spoil the VDW assessment.
1. 13300 = 3* score 7 = 9/2
2. 01100 = 2* score 2 = 33/1
3. 31200 = 3* score 6 =11/2
4. 0000 = 0* score 0 = ?
5. 12011 = 4* score 5 = 7/1 Full Of Joy
6. 21332 = 5* score 11 = 9/4 Brassick
7. 01123 = 4* score 7 = 9/2 Polisky
8. 00000 = 0* score 0 = ?
. Couple of newcomers in this race that could spoil the VDW assessment.1. 13300 = 3* score 7 = 9/2
2. 01100 = 2* score 2 = 33/1
3. 31200 = 3* score 6 =11/2
4. 0000 = 0* score 0 = ?
5. 12011 = 4* score 5 = 7/1 Full Of Joy
6. 21332 = 5* score 11 = 9/4 Brassick
7. 01123 = 4* score 7 = 9/2 Polisky
8. 00000 = 0* score 0 = ?
Last edited:
not really!...mr kildare. 11(1)=3 p. king 4/22 (2) =6 decent f. 313(3)=7 (no advantage,stay with original figures) beacon l.112(2)=5 (no advantage, stay with original figures) monksfield336(6)=15 (no advantage,stay with original figures) ............... now apply betting position vs finishing position mr kildare f f (f)=3. plus betting points=0,0 from 3=3 p. king. 3 2 (2)=7 plus betting point=1,1 from 6=5. beacon l. 3 f f=5 plus betting point=1,1 from 4=3
Last edited:
Bobajobber
Mare
No disrespect, but I have not got a clue what you are offering up or the logic behind it.
It pays to explain what point you are trying to put across and how they are suppose to fit with the Erin numbers,apologies if this appears a little blunt, but I think Chesham wrote that any set of numbers can be worked out in many different ways and he is correct, unless a sound logic can be worked along side them,without explaining that logic, you have just offered up a set of numbers
the logic is contained within the figures which shows decent fellow =7 and monksfield = 16. mr kildare had only two runs, why should the other runners be at a disadvantage,because of this?
Bobajobber
Mare
Ok, I kind of get your point, but unless you can get the same figures for ALL of the horses, then you are fudging them.
The point you are missing is VDW has given the figures, so they are set in stone, that means they have to be achieved, you cannot make Monksfield 16 so you are suggesting it can be ignored or as you say it is at a disadvantage, there is no logic at all to that, then if this was so, he would not of offered up the figure 16 or even Decent Fellows 7, sorry
The point you are missing is VDW has given the figures, so they are set in stone, that means they have to be achieved, you cannot make Monksfield 16 so you are suggesting it can be ignored or as you say it is at a disadvantage, there is no logic at all to that, then if this was so, he would not of offered up the figure 16 or even Decent Fellows 7, sorry
formtheory
Stallion
Hi Royal Palace,
I can honestly say Bobba helped me with with Erin figures and they do match all the numbers given.
Lee's selections also had very good (low) Erin numbers, although Chesham stated he did not believe Lee created the figure but looked at consistency in the same way.
I can honestly say Bobba helped me with with Erin figures and they do match all the numbers given.
Lee's selections also had very good (low) Erin numbers, although Chesham stated he did not believe Lee created the figure but looked at consistency in the same way.
sorry you cannot see what is in front of you! and if you have the form books then monksfield is a 16 and decent fellow a 7...let me put it on a plate for you, monksfield finished sixth last time out,if you add a phantom race for him he would finish sixth again,this would put his last three figures at 3 6 6.=15. monksfield's actual figures are 3 3 6=12.....so there is no advantage gained.in fact he would be disadvantaged. so the original figures are used. his market position for those races are 3 1 4=8 this= four places below his actual finishing positions. so 4 is added to the twelve (his actual finishing position) giving....?
formtheory
Stallion
Hi Royal Palace!
Interesting post, I must say!
So your saying that when a horse runs better than its market position you would deduct this from it's last 3 places?
Do you work this way and how often does it trap the winner within the lowest 3 figures?
I enjoy seeing other peoples views,
So thankyou for posting.
Interesting post, I must say!
So your saying that when a horse runs better than its market position you would deduct this from it's last 3 places?
Do you work this way and how often does it trap the winner within the lowest 3 figures?
I enjoy seeing other peoples views,
So thankyou for posting.
ArkRoyal
Administrator
@
royal palace Welcome to the forum!Can you show me how Decent Fellow gets a 7 using the same logic?
All the Best
AR
hello arkroyal. it would be better if you worked it out for yourself, but i too have had enough of flowery language hinting at secret knowledge that us mere mortals could never attain...............so this is how decent fellow=7 i said there was no advantage in duplicating his last race AS THE FIGURES ARE THE SAME at that stage it was so, it is when the next stage is considered it becomes not so. here is his last three runs and market positions...3,f...1,f...3,3f which=finishing pos.=7 and market pos.=5 so he finished two places worse which makes him a 9 if we duplicate his last race what do we get yes a 7. this is a way to balance up the contenders giving them the same consideration as mr kildare. truth be told "the man" would have dismissed decent fellow, beacon light, monksfield almost immediately, the form figures alone makes one wary, though the form is the final word and of course must be checked. regards.@
Can you show me how Decent Fellow gets a 7 using the same logic?
All the Best
AR
Chesham
Sire
Royal Palace
I think that you may have been watching too much countdown on the TV, I have seen three different ways to arrive at the Erin Figures and your way is beyond belief compared to the other three methods, sorry to be so blunt.
Monksfield form figures 3-3 -Last = 16 (was 6th last home in a six runner Race) Quote VDW: Placings One to Nine are Counted as they stand, but for reasons which should be obvious, those beyond this range or those finishing last should be calculated as 10 i.e. 3rd-Last- 4th = 17"
Now look at VDW's Consistency Ratings
Decent Fellow Last 3 form figures 3-1-3 = 7
Monsksfield 3-3-Last = 16
Mr Kildare 1-1 + (1 Added) = 3
So all those above are correct and as Printed in the Racform Handicap Forum Page
The two that are not as they should be are Prominent King 4-2-2 and Beacon Light 1-1-2
You could use all sorts of Rubbish Formulas to arrive at the Three Starred Horses that VDW said came out best.
PK = 5 because it was 2 nd to a horse that was previously 3rd
BL = 3 as it was second to a horse that had fell last time but was previously 1st
MK = 3 as it was 1st to a horse that was previously second
Good Luck
Chesham
I think that you may have been watching too much countdown on the TV, I have seen three different ways to arrive at the Erin Figures and your way is beyond belief compared to the other three methods, sorry to be so blunt.
Monksfield form figures 3-3 -Last = 16 (was 6th last home in a six runner Race) Quote VDW: Placings One to Nine are Counted as they stand, but for reasons which should be obvious, those beyond this range or those finishing last should be calculated as 10 i.e. 3rd-Last- 4th = 17"
Now look at VDW's Consistency Ratings
Decent Fellow Last 3 form figures 3-1-3 = 7
Monsksfield 3-3-Last = 16
Mr Kildare 1-1 + (1 Added) = 3
So all those above are correct and as Printed in the Racform Handicap Forum Page
The two that are not as they should be are Prominent King 4-2-2 and Beacon Light 1-1-2
You could use all sorts of Rubbish Formulas to arrive at the Three Starred Horses that VDW said came out best.
PK = 5 because it was 2 nd to a horse that was previously 3rd
BL = 3 as it was second to a horse that had fell last time but was previously 1st
MK = 3 as it was 1st to a horse that was previously second
Good Luck
Chesham
Last edited: