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formtheory
Stallion
Hi Chesham!
When V.D.W said that the horses Mr Spiers spoke of had the perfect balance was this due to the fact that they had won LTO, and turned out quickly?
Take care Paul
When V.D.W said that the horses Mr Spiers spoke of had the perfect balance was this due to the fact that they had won LTO, and turned out quickly?
Take care Paul
downey
Yearling
VDW wrote in letter No 20 "Last year, in response to a challenge, I submitted what to my mind is a VERY ELEMENTARY METHOD of finding winners with the remark that it may provide food for thought." This challenge was written in response to G Hall on the Erin race. Very elementary suggests to me that it was simple kids stuff and was not coded or ambiguous.
Downey
Downey
Chesham
Sire
formtheory said:
It is all about Trainers intention
Today
Re Johnston/Fallon
Filter: K Fallon combo, Brighton, Prev Runs (1 to 999)
3 wins from 6 runs (50.0%), 2.33 A/E, Profit of £8.63 (143.8%)
So far this season had two runners under this combo at Brighton and both lost so could be overdue a win
The Johnston Runner's best speed figure was 18/07/2013 EPSOM LH 1m 1f GF
He was lazy the whole way, but the more I pushed the more he found and you can´t ask more than that - Adam Kirby, jockey.
Has the right Jockey to stoke him up and there is sufficient pace if Kieron can keep him in a prominent position.
Has been racing over shorter and better class since and now the Handicap Mark is down and back to a Class Ceiling he could win in.
Good Luck
Trainers do strange things and sometimes you need to ask why
hayzee
Gelding
just an attempt at humour JF,I know you are well respected,btw HP with your chips,bit posh innit,Daddies was the order of the day,as for chicken,what was that ,unless you count bread and pullet...
at Christmas,1/2 a leg of lamb made an appearance,but lucky us,some just had a run round the table...
I also used to take bets to a guy near the top of our street for family and a few neighbours,mainly on a Saturday,don't spose Interpol were looking out for a snotty kid in short trousers as part of a crime syndicate...
Mick,as I said,I'm not sure if he was part of a net forum these days,how long he would last,his staking plan is too risky,unless of course he was getting his,and the band played believe it if you like strike rate,his concept of how some punters looked for value was off,we know it's not about getting something for nothing,just a MAP,and a method that uses the first 5/6 in the betting f/c is using the work of odds compilers over that of the live market,which can often reflect a change in the dynamics of the race due to a change of jock/going/nr's etc.
Does the method stand up today? Mmmmm from what I've noticed,when challenged to put up a trial of VDW selections,a lot of the winners are favs or quite short odds,but,as they say,a short priced winner is better than a long priced loser,especially with a s/r of >80%...
at Christmas,1/2 a leg of lamb made an appearance,but lucky us,some just had a run round the table...
I also used to take bets to a guy near the top of our street for family and a few neighbours,mainly on a Saturday,don't spose Interpol were looking out for a snotty kid in short trousers as part of a crime syndicate...
Mick,as I said,I'm not sure if he was part of a net forum these days,how long he would last,his staking plan is too risky,unless of course he was getting his,and the band played believe it if you like strike rate,his concept of how some punters looked for value was off,we know it's not about getting something for nothing,just a MAP,and a method that uses the first 5/6 in the betting f/c is using the work of odds compilers over that of the live market,which can often reflect a change in the dynamics of the race due to a change of jock/going/nr's etc.
Does the method stand up today? Mmmmm from what I've noticed,when challenged to put up a trial of VDW selections,a lot of the winners are favs or quite short odds,but,as they say,a short priced winner is better than a long priced loser,especially with a s/r of >80%...
mlmrob
Sire
Chesham said:
Spot on Chesham.
Hunting Rights wins a 0-75 off 72 and his mark goes upto 78. Into a 7 runner 0-90 for which he was 5th fav finishing down the field.Then off to Epsom for a 0-80 off 78. He was third favourite. He couldn't be supported as he is 0-5 in class 4. De Sousa gave the horse too much to do but he stayed on well. He then goes to Newmarket for a 0-85 off a mark of 77. He is then dropped to 75 and goes to Brighton for a 0-75 and hacks up.
The horse wasn't the most consistent horse in the race but he was in this grade.
The trainer had tried him in a 0-90 and failed and 0-85 and failed but the horse had run well enough in a 0-80 suggesting that if his mark returned to 75,a 0-75 would be there for the taking. Johnston finds a race on a switchback track and he hacks up. That took his record in class 5 to 4-5 and 3-3 in handicaps.
Yes it is after the race, yes it is after timing but those were the facts.
As Chesham has told everyone, Class Ceilings.
mick
Sire
hayzee said:
Mick,as I said,I'm not sure if he was part of a net forum these days,how long he would last,his staking plan is too risky,unless of course he was getting his,and the band played believe it if you like strike rate,his concept of how some punters looked for value was off,we know it's not about getting something for nothing,just a MAP,and a method that uses the first 5/6 in the betting f/c is using the work of odds compilers over that of the live market,which can often reflect a change in the dynamics of the race due to a change of jock/going/nr's etc.
Does the method stand up today? Mmmmm from what I've noticed,when challenged to put up a trial of VDW selections,a lot of the winners are favs or quite short odds,but,as they say,a short priced winner is better than a long priced loser,especially with a s/r of >80%...
I speak as one who at the time tried but failed to interpret what he was saying but this did not prevent me from appreciating what the guy offered.I am obliged to boba and have just been reading his most recent download which contains the original vdw quotes.He said it was ok to give something away but you did not give everything.Personally i am inclined to believe that the guys claimed results where correct.
VDW Had the opportunity to silence his critics by phone proofing selections to Tony Peach ,i wonder if this is what Tony wanted and tried to achieve via publishing some of the critical letters written by those who had failed to get similar results.? If so it would have been the wrong ploy to use against a man who was secure in the knowledge that what he said worked for himself.
A sad situation which i learnt many years ago is that most backers who will be long term losers themselves do not like the concept that another can succeed when they have tried and failed. Polite well reasoned and constructive criticism (which you have offered above) should be welcomed as this plays a part in enabling us to learn from each other but all to often the boot goes in before the journey begins. So would vdw have survived on an on-line forum ? I think not.
Chesham
Sire
nagwa said:
LOOKING FOR A WINNER IN A RACE
When looking back at PK Form LTO, Winner in that Race was Drumgora. Looking at the Winner in Drumgora's last race it was Decent Fellow (note the Class of this race)
Roushayd LTO the winner in that Race was Billet (Stepping up in Class) The winner in Billets LTO Race was Billet (Fav)
Lee gave a clue to the hidden consistency, when he said that in the Old Newton Cup, VDW mentioned that Il de Chypre and Vouchafe had marked their cards, The Winner in the ONC was Roushayd Lto the Winner was Billet etc
VDW said that Pegwell Bay could win again if placed correctly, LTO had won, beating Smart Tar, LTO Smart Tar had won
Looking at a Winner in a race
Good Luck
Chesham
formtheory
Stallion
This is an area I struggle in!
Say we have the winner in a race, Billet.
We look back and see Billet won LTO in class 40 then stepped up to win the class 220.
When comparing this form with another do we use the win from the 40 or the 220?
As Roushayd was beaten by a horse coming from a class 40, if we look at another horse and the winner from the race went into the race from winning a class 80 is this the best form?
If this makes sense!
Say we have the winner in a race, Billet.
We look back and see Billet won LTO in class 40 then stepped up to win the class 220.
When comparing this form with another do we use the win from the 40 or the 220?
As Roushayd was beaten by a horse coming from a class 40, if we look at another horse and the winner from the race went into the race from winning a class 80 is this the best form?
If this makes sense!
nagwa
Colt
thanks chesham formtheory, just reading be a winner vdw gave rivage bleu, prominent king as horses without a winning class ratings at the time going into the erin race prominent king had won some races, rivage bleu, was a maiden, thansk everyone great knowledge on vdw being shared here..
formtheory
Stallion
Hi Nagwa!
I always thought V.D.W was talking about the class P.King had ran in.
As he had ran in a low class race LTO, but gave weight to Drumagora who had shown much improvement in a class 116.
I feel that the class 116 then became P.kings winning class rating.
I always thought V.D.W was talking about the class P.King had ran in.
As he had ran in a low class race LTO, but gave weight to Drumagora who had shown much improvement in a class 116.
I feel that the class 116 then became P.kings winning class rating.
Chesham
Sire
The only ones worth looking at are Roushayd, Billet and Failiq. Roushayd has not come to the pitch capable of winning and Failiq, second to Billet last time, had been dropped a long way in class. Nothing in that race hinted at a reversal this time. Billet once again showed the classic give away of improvement and is a probable winner although reaching a bit high.
It was in this Northern Dancer that Roushayd showed the classic give-away of improvement. Pushed up in class and running much better, although 6th, recording a speed figure rating of 65, a great improvement upon 27. Could now be placed to win, but watch what the trainer does!
Billet had run in the 1987 Northern Dancer the year before when he was Favourite and LTO out had won the London Gold Cup and was Favourite
Fast Forward 1 year and Billet wins the 1988 London Gold Cup and then again tackles The Northern Dancer
VDW is warning that Roushayds needs to be placed in a race that is within his class ceiling, distance, track etc
Sometimes the Trainer will want to condition the horse a bit more and again enter him in a race where he is disadvantaged, but in this case places him correctly next time out.
Good Luck
Chehsam
It was in this Northern Dancer that Roushayd showed the classic give-away of improvement. Pushed up in class and running much better, although 6th, recording a speed figure rating of 65, a great improvement upon 27. Could now be placed to win, but watch what the trainer does!
Billet had run in the 1987 Northern Dancer the year before when he was Favourite and LTO out had won the London Gold Cup and was Favourite
Fast Forward 1 year and Billet wins the 1988 London Gold Cup and then again tackles The Northern Dancer
VDW is warning that Roushayds needs to be placed in a race that is within his class ceiling, distance, track etc
Sometimes the Trainer will want to condition the horse a bit more and again enter him in a race where he is disadvantaged, but in this case places him correctly next time out.
Good Luck
Chehsam
formtheory
Stallion
Cheers Chesham!
How do you use the winner in the race to compare form with another horse in the present day?
How do you use the winner in the race to compare form with another horse in the present day?
Chesham
Sire
formtheory said:
Criuse to the limit dropping 6lbs in class, Class Rating 73, Chesham OR 74
Another Citizen Dropping 12.5lbs in Class Class, rating 76, Chehsam OR 74
With Spinatrix and Cruise To The Limit drawn together we are likely to see a
decent pace. Drawn next to them is Another Citizen who has won over this C&D
last year and then suffered sore shins. Is dropping to the lowest class as far
as Sprints are concerned. David Allan in the plate today.
LTO Another Citizen nearly went through the rails and watching the race it was
a miricle that his Jockey stayed in the plate and even more surprising that she
finished 2nd on Another Citizen.
The Winner Louis The Pyous had won his previous two starts and was a hot
favourite for the race. The 3rd horse won next time out so the form a good feel
to it.
Look at the hidden form last three races it was consistently against well handicapped horses, why a 7f race against Bajan Bear (To put a little more conditioning into Another Citizen) Saucy Brown raised in Class.
Louis The Pious LTO had won previous two races
Saucy Brown had won his previous race
Bajan Bear had won his previous race
Good Luck
Chehsam
Jackform
Mare
formtheory et al,
You have left me trailing as an also ran with all this in depth analysis
. I have to agree totally with downey that initially VDW stated that narrowing the field to identify possibles was employing an 'elementary mechanical procedure' and I am afraid I have not got any further than that really.
I am considering staring a new thread to tip up some selections, although it may not be the best time of the racing year to make a start. Like McArthur, 'I shall return'
- or something like that.
You have left me trailing as an also ran with all this in depth analysis
. I have to agree totally with downey that initially VDW stated that narrowing the field to identify possibles was employing an 'elementary mechanical procedure' and I am afraid I have not got any further than that really.I am considering staring a new thread to tip up some selections, although it may not be the best time of the racing year to make a start. Like McArthur, 'I shall return'
- or something like that.
Chesham
Sire
Jackform said:formtheory et al,
You have left me trailing as an also ran with all this in depth analysis
I am considering staring a new thread to tip up some selections, although it may not be the best time of the racing year to make a start. Like McArthur, 'I shall return'
Hi Jackform
Am I correct in thinking that you were Alan Coldrick in a previous life? Also why do you think VDW Totaled the Form figures 3 for Beacon Light and 5 for PK, when they should have been 4 & 8 respectively
Good Luck
Chesham
Jackform
Mare
Chesham you are correct I am AC - still.
With regards to the figures quoted I have not got a clue and that's a fact. However, in other published examples he does adhere strictly to adding the three last placings to arrive at a total.
Four of these examples are incuded in a Sports Forum extra, dated 28 Feb 81:
The examples are from Saturday, 7 Mar 81.
Haydock 1.45, Haydock 2.15, Newbury 2.30, Market Rasen 2.00
In the above examples he does state that if one of the three possibles has the highest ability (prize money) rating it is worthy of consideration, but...To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned, taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the course they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by, and most important, how they performed in the latter stages of each race.
I am sure you know all this, but that's how it is.
With regards to the figures quoted I have not got a clue and that's a fact. However, in other published examples he does adhere strictly to adding the three last placings to arrive at a total.
Four of these examples are incuded in a Sports Forum extra, dated 28 Feb 81:
The examples are from Saturday, 7 Mar 81.
Haydock 1.45, Haydock 2.15, Newbury 2.30, Market Rasen 2.00
In the above examples he does state that if one of the three possibles has the highest ability (prize money) rating it is worthy of consideration, but...To confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned, taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the course they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by, and most important, how they performed in the latter stages of each race.
I am sure you know all this, but that's how it is.