you can nick some prices

[DANCING BRAVE]

been doing this for a while now paddy and few others seam slow to update on the american racing

7 My Cousin Lou i just checked this after viewing the american tote it took a min to shorten


Form 331543

Hector C...
Alfredo ...
8-9
Age 4
4/1 5/2
down
-
-
-
-
-
2/1 i have seen several odds on shots 7/4 etc they just seem really slow to update prices on the true coarse betting which can work very much in your faver

 

[pete]

There are lots of American races where the favorite will go off on the tote @ 3/5 or 1/2 however UK bookmakers have odds at evens or 11/8 - isnt that UK bookies are slow to react, in most cases it is that the US tote has the favorite as way overbacked .. there is no other way for Americans to bet on horses, so many times the favorites are very very short on the tote, where betfair is showing a more realistic and more stable book. (without the 20% takeout too) .. summary, i would not take the US tote prices as being a accurate reflection of a horses chance of winning a race

 

[DANCING BRAVE]

There are lots of American races where the favorite will go off on the tote @ 3/5 or 1/2 however UK bookmakers have odds at evens or 11/8 - isnt that UK bookies are slow to react, in most cases it is that the US tote has the favorite as way overbacked .. there is no other way for Americans to bet on horses, so many times the favorites are very very short on the tote, where betfair is showing a more realistic and more stable book. (without the 20% takeout too) .. summary, i would not take the US tote prices as being a accurate reflection of a horses chance of winning a race

i think horses on the american racing that are backed heavy win much more that horses in the uk what am saying is theirs value to be had am nor wanting to sound like one of these after timers but i had 3 such bets tonight my cousen lou i took 4s win 2s i bet Al at 7/4 2nd at evens and i backed mutasaawy took 5/2 won 4/5 not saying they all win but a lot do , i can verify all these bets if you need clarification , i had a very good evening ,

 

[pete]

i think horses on the american racing that are backed heavy win much more that horses in the uk what am saying is theirs value to be had am nor wanting to sound like one of these after timers but i had 3 such bets tonight my cousen lou i took 4s win 2s i bet Al at 7/4 2nd at evens and i backed mutasaawy took 5/2 won 4/5 not saying they all win but a lot do , i can verify all these bets if you need clarification , i had a very good evening ,

nope, I absolutely believe you .. as long as you are beating tote odds by about 25-30% on average .. no matter which horse you are betting .. you should come out ahead ... what I am saying is that tote odds in the US are skewed towards favorites massively. But as long as you are beating tote odds by a big margin, you should be ok long-term. If you can avoid maidens and lower value claiming races and stick with allowance races or higher value .. you will be better off long term too .... the allowance races will have better class horses with more exposed form .. and therefore the shorter priced favorite should be more justified ... also stick to the bigger meetings at the more well known tracks so that the tote pools that you are playing in will have more valid prices ... I would stick to tracks listed as A-C .. once you move to minor tracks the betting pools may not be big enough that a $500 bet from an enthusiastic owner may sway the odds so far out of line .. that the track odds no longer mean anything

 

[Keegans head]

Good post pete very informative . Thanks

 

[pete]

e.g .. next race at Louisiana ... granted the start is still 10 mins away .. but right now the tote pools look like this ...



As you can see .. if someone comes and puts a $500 win bet on the 8 horse ... that horse will now have $800 of a $1600 pool ... track take out will be 20% ... so that will push the odds from 2/1 down to 4/5 ish ..
you can have very weak tote pools at smaller tracks ... its likely to be much stronger close to the off ...

 

[DANCING BRAVE]

newmarket

 

[DANCING BRAVE]

newmarket