D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Wont be a post everyday , just as and when something catches my eye really
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Tuesday 3rd June
7.00 Wolverhampton - Beauzon EW 16/1
Think at the current price on offer Beauzon could well be worth a punt to nothing .. Tight looking race i reckon where five of the runners come into it in decent form , two of them off lto wins and the other three from lto seconds , but in all honesty i think a case could be made for all seven runners and at the price as i say could be worth a go , off nicking a place at the very least , obviously would prefer 8+ runners giving the 3 places rather than 2 but thats kinda factored into the price i suppose as with more runners i'd say you'd be looking at around 10s maybe less. Hasnt been in great form admittedly , only one decent run in the last four outings and that was in his penultimate run when a length second at Leicester. But all those runs have been on turf , save the first of the four which was here at Wolverhampton over CD , though can forgive that run as was coming back from a lay off. Does tend to run well here with seven wins and four places from his twenty two runs over CD , and has won / placed from this kind of mark before and in the class so im hopeful that he can go well at a decent price. Ian Williams has a few out today but sends just this one to the meeting , and this season he has a 15.3% strike rate when coming here along with a profit of +£7.25. Had a winner from his sole runner yesterday and has a 15% strike rate over the last three weeks , Charles Bishop in the saddle and he has a 50% strike rate (win and place) on the horse to date with five wins and a place from his twelve rides. Bit of a risk obviously but at the price im happy enough to take a chance.
6.30 Wolverhampton - City Escape EW 6/1
Competitive looking race imo and im gonna side with City Escape who i think can go well and hopefully improve on her lto second at a decent price. Has been in solid form since returning from a 152 day break back in January - 3,3,1,1,2,4,4,4,2. Seems to like this CD with five wins and ten places to her name , has won from this mark before and the class shouldnt be an issue. Draw looks okay to me and i think she can go well again here. Ray Dawson in the plate and he has a win and two places from his six rides to date , been amongst the winners lately , as has Mark Loughnane who has a 21% strike rate in the last couple of weeks , having a good season when sending his horses here with a 15.8% strike rate alongside a healthy profit of +£28.62. 8 runner race so hopefully none of them will drop out as i can definatley see her in the first three home. Also gonna do a combi forecast and smaller win singles with Romantic Spirit (9/2) & Lhebayeb (12/1) who i feel could go well at reasonable prices , fingers crossed.
7.00 Wolverhampton - Beauzon EW 16/1
Think at the current price on offer Beauzon could well be worth a punt to nothing .. Tight looking race i reckon where five of the runners come into it in decent form , two of them off lto wins and the other three from lto seconds , but in all honesty i think a case could be made for all seven runners and at the price as i say could be worth a go , off nicking a place at the very least , obviously would prefer 8+ runners giving the 3 places rather than 2 but thats kinda factored into the price i suppose as with more runners i'd say you'd be looking at around 10s maybe less. Hasnt been in great form admittedly , only one decent run in the last four outings and that was in his penultimate run when a length second at Leicester. But all those runs have been on turf , save the first of the four which was here at Wolverhampton over CD , though can forgive that run as was coming back from a lay off. Does tend to run well here with seven wins and four places from his twenty two runs over CD , and has won / placed from this kind of mark before and in the class so im hopeful that he can go well at a decent price. Ian Williams has a few out today but sends just this one to the meeting , and this season he has a 15.3% strike rate when coming here along with a profit of +£7.25. Had a winner from his sole runner yesterday and has a 15% strike rate over the last three weeks , Charles Bishop in the saddle and he has a 50% strike rate (win and place) on the horse to date with five wins and a place from his twelve rides. Bit of a risk obviously but at the price im happy enough to take a chance.
6.30 Wolverhampton - City Escape EW 6/1
Competitive looking race imo and im gonna side with City Escape who i think can go well and hopefully improve on her lto second at a decent price. Has been in solid form since returning from a 152 day break back in January - 3,3,1,1,2,4,4,4,2. Seems to like this CD with five wins and ten places to her name , has won from this mark before and the class shouldnt be an issue. Draw looks okay to me and i think she can go well again here. Ray Dawson in the plate and he has a win and two places from his six rides to date , been amongst the winners lately , as has Mark Loughnane who has a 21% strike rate in the last couple of weeks , having a good season when sending his horses here with a 15.8% strike rate alongside a healthy profit of +£28.62. 8 runner race so hopefully none of them will drop out as i can definatley see her in the first three home. Also gonna do a combi forecast and smaller win singles with Romantic Spirit (9/2) & Lhebayeb (12/1) who i feel could go well at reasonable prices , fingers crossed.
Last edited by a moderator:
Best of with your selections.This 6.30 has a strange look about @Sean with the top weight on 70 and CITY ESCAPE on 58, clearly we're very much into the 3yr old + season now and i'm still not quite up to speed. 13lbs wfa always strikes me as being a little generous to the youngsters and that's where i'd want to look for the winner.
It gonna be a bit of a guessing game i'm afraid in that PAINT THE TOWN RED doesn't look thrown in but i'd expect her to improve for the extra dist and who knows what first time cheekpieces might deliver ?
7.00 COLLUSION really has hit a wonderful bit of form recently with three wins but i would take him on with NOBLE CONSORT who's also looking for the hattrick after two decent performances for the standard.
So little encouragement from me @Sean but hopefully i'm wrong.
It gonna be a bit of a guessing game i'm afraid in that PAINT THE TOWN RED doesn't look thrown in but i'd expect her to improve for the extra dist and who knows what first time cheekpieces might deliver ?
7.00 COLLUSION really has hit a wonderful bit of form recently with three wins but i would take him on with NOBLE CONSORT who's also looking for the hattrick after two decent performances for the standard.
So little encouragement from me @Sean but hopefully i'm wrong.
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Wednesday 4th June
4.05 Newton Abbot - Clearance EW 12/1 / American Land 3/1
A few of these look to hold chances specially if im being honest but at the price Clearance stood out to me given his course form , i see that the early 12s has now gone and its now a best priced 11/2 so fingers crossed he can go well and get his head in front , be a nice touch if he can ! Had three runs since a lay off of 166 days , showed nothing in the first two but was an improved fourth lto when he ran over 2m5 1/2f here at Newton Abbot , and back here again over todays shorter distance i think he can go well again and can hopefully improve on that fourth. Has six wins and two places from his thirteen runs at the course , and that improves to five wins and two places from nine runs over this afternoons CD. Has won off as high as 112 so off todays mark has to be of interest i'd of thought , and the fact that he has won this race twice (2022 and 2024) didnt go un noticed , and i think theres every chance that he can get the hat trick up here today. Michael Blake has just this one at the meeting , and he does well when sending his runners here , over the last five years hes managed a 25% strike rate along with a profit of +£22.00. Harry Cobden booked for the ride which caught my eye , yet to win on the horse in two rides but has placed in one of them and hes been in good form of late with a 38% strike rate over the last three weeks , and he has a 50% strike rate when riding here this season.
As i said a few of the runners look to hold decent chances but the one i'd fear most is American Land , who won over slightly further here last time out , think this drop in trip could help his chances of a repeat performance here. Placed on sole start over CD and has a place and a win from two starts here at Newton Abbot. Joe Tizzard has two in the race , both look to hold chances imho but i feel that AL could hold the better chance (probably wrong but there you go) .. Brenden Powell takes the ride and he has three wins and three places from his ten rides aboard the horse , has a 25% strike rate in the last 21 days when riding for Joe Tizzard , and has a 30.4% strike rate in the past month and when coming here to ride this term he has a 28.6% SR overall. Tizzard been in decent form with a 33% strike rate in the last 4 weeks and has a 36.4% strike rate when sending his runners here this term. Shouldnt be far away come the business end of things.
4.05 Newton Abbot - Clearance EW 12/1 / American Land 3/1
A few of these look to hold chances specially if im being honest but at the price Clearance stood out to me given his course form , i see that the early 12s has now gone and its now a best priced 11/2 so fingers crossed he can go well and get his head in front , be a nice touch if he can ! Had three runs since a lay off of 166 days , showed nothing in the first two but was an improved fourth lto when he ran over 2m5 1/2f here at Newton Abbot , and back here again over todays shorter distance i think he can go well again and can hopefully improve on that fourth. Has six wins and two places from his thirteen runs at the course , and that improves to five wins and two places from nine runs over this afternoons CD. Has won off as high as 112 so off todays mark has to be of interest i'd of thought , and the fact that he has won this race twice (2022 and 2024) didnt go un noticed , and i think theres every chance that he can get the hat trick up here today. Michael Blake has just this one at the meeting , and he does well when sending his runners here , over the last five years hes managed a 25% strike rate along with a profit of +£22.00. Harry Cobden booked for the ride which caught my eye , yet to win on the horse in two rides but has placed in one of them and hes been in good form of late with a 38% strike rate over the last three weeks , and he has a 50% strike rate when riding here this season.
As i said a few of the runners look to hold decent chances but the one i'd fear most is American Land , who won over slightly further here last time out , think this drop in trip could help his chances of a repeat performance here. Placed on sole start over CD and has a place and a win from two starts here at Newton Abbot. Joe Tizzard has two in the race , both look to hold chances imho but i feel that AL could hold the better chance (probably wrong but there you go) .. Brenden Powell takes the ride and he has three wins and three places from his ten rides aboard the horse , has a 25% strike rate in the last 21 days when riding for Joe Tizzard , and has a 30.4% strike rate in the past month and when coming here to ride this term he has a 28.6% SR overall. Tizzard been in decent form with a 33% strike rate in the last 4 weeks and has a 36.4% strike rate when sending his runners here this term. Shouldnt be far away come the business end of things.
Last edited by a moderator:
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Beauzon was a poor 6th
City Escape could only manage 4th and Lhebayeb 5th but Romantic Spirit took the sting out of the losses a little winning at 9/2 (SP 16/5)
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Well Clearance was withdrawn , but American Land obliged at the tasty odds of 7/1 (3/1 took last night)
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Friday 6th June - Legal Reform EW 33/1 (savers on Miss Information 4/1 & Rhoscolyn 7/2)
Bit of a risky proposition but i think theres a chance that Legal Reform could go well and outrun his odds. Hasnt seen the outside of the first three home in his last six races - 1,2,1,1,2,3 and whilst they've all been on the artificial surface (Shuvvel and lto at Leafy) im hopeful that he can transfer that form to the turf as hes ran well on it before with a couple of wins and eight places from 21 runs and the one time hes ran here (September last year) , over todays CD , he was second so the fact hes ran well here is a bonus for me. I think the drop back to 7f will play to his strengths (ran over 8f lto) as it seems to be his optimum trip and all his wins have come over this distance. Michael Herrington sends just this one to the meeting , and though he hasnt been in the best of form lately hes still a trainer i rate and the fact hes sent just this one caught my eye. David Probert in the saddle and he has a win and a place from his two rides to date on the horse , and has a 13% strike rate when coming here to ride overall. As i say bit of an iffy one but at the odds im willing to take a chance that he can go well and at least make the frame.
Also gonna have a couple of savers , first of those is Miss Information whose one from one over this afternoons CD , doesnt look badly drawn and arrives on the back of a 3/4 length win at Newmarket last time out , if in the same sort of mood i think she can be making her presence felt despite the rise in the weights. Oisin Murphy rode her to that win and hes aboard again today and has a good record when riding the filly with three wins and three places from his seven rides to date. Hes bang in form at the moment with a 25.2% strike rate in the last month (along with a profit of +£9.94) , and when coming to Epsom over the past five years he has a 25.9% strike rate and a profit of +£19.99. Trainer Andrew Balding been amongst the winners with a 20% strike rate over the last three weeks and he has a 17.1% strike rate when sending his runners here in the last five years. It caught my eye that when trainer and jockey have teamed up over the last three weeks they come away with a 27% strike rate.
The other horse i have onside is Rhoscolyn , cant really not include him considering hes won this race twice before , in 2021 and 2024 , which makes him two outta two over this CD. Trainer also saddles Darkness (who i wouldnt totally discount if im being honest) , but i think Rhoscolyn is his best chance (watch that go tits up now lol) .. Jason Watson only won once from twelve rides on the horse which is a tad off putting tbh but given the horses liking for it here im gonna ignore that. Both the horses wins in this race came on good - soft and with the rain about im hoping that any more of it can help his chances. Ran a decent enough race lto and is now back down to his last winning mark , if on song he should be making his presence felt i think.
Bit of a risky proposition but i think theres a chance that Legal Reform could go well and outrun his odds. Hasnt seen the outside of the first three home in his last six races - 1,2,1,1,2,3 and whilst they've all been on the artificial surface (Shuvvel and lto at Leafy) im hopeful that he can transfer that form to the turf as hes ran well on it before with a couple of wins and eight places from 21 runs and the one time hes ran here (September last year) , over todays CD , he was second so the fact hes ran well here is a bonus for me. I think the drop back to 7f will play to his strengths (ran over 8f lto) as it seems to be his optimum trip and all his wins have come over this distance. Michael Herrington sends just this one to the meeting , and though he hasnt been in the best of form lately hes still a trainer i rate and the fact hes sent just this one caught my eye. David Probert in the saddle and he has a win and a place from his two rides to date on the horse , and has a 13% strike rate when coming here to ride overall. As i say bit of an iffy one but at the odds im willing to take a chance that he can go well and at least make the frame.
Also gonna have a couple of savers , first of those is Miss Information whose one from one over this afternoons CD , doesnt look badly drawn and arrives on the back of a 3/4 length win at Newmarket last time out , if in the same sort of mood i think she can be making her presence felt despite the rise in the weights. Oisin Murphy rode her to that win and hes aboard again today and has a good record when riding the filly with three wins and three places from his seven rides to date. Hes bang in form at the moment with a 25.2% strike rate in the last month (along with a profit of +£9.94) , and when coming to Epsom over the past five years he has a 25.9% strike rate and a profit of +£19.99. Trainer Andrew Balding been amongst the winners with a 20% strike rate over the last three weeks and he has a 17.1% strike rate when sending his runners here in the last five years. It caught my eye that when trainer and jockey have teamed up over the last three weeks they come away with a 27% strike rate.
The other horse i have onside is Rhoscolyn , cant really not include him considering hes won this race twice before , in 2021 and 2024 , which makes him two outta two over this CD. Trainer also saddles Darkness (who i wouldnt totally discount if im being honest) , but i think Rhoscolyn is his best chance (watch that go tits up now lol) .. Jason Watson only won once from twelve rides on the horse which is a tad off putting tbh but given the horses liking for it here im gonna ignore that. Both the horses wins in this race came on good - soft and with the rain about im hoping that any more of it can help his chances. Ran a decent enough race lto and is now back down to his last winning mark , if on song he should be making his presence felt i think.
Last edited by a moderator:
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
No luck with this one , nearest was Rhoscolyn who could only manage third
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Sunday 8th June
2.47 Perth - Trailblazer EW 16/1 (Saver - Simple Star EW 9/1)
Quite like the chances of Trailblazer in this , has been holding his form well all season to be honest , since returning to action at the start of the year hes had seven races resulting in figures of - 4,3,4,3,1,2,3, so has been there or thereabouts on all his starts Had wind surgery and since then his form seems to have improved a tad and i honestly cant see any reason why he shouldnt run his race and be on the premises once again. Has won and placed in his two starts over this afternoons CD and has won from a higher mark than todays. Trainer Adam Nicol been amongst the winners and has a 33% strike rate in the last couple of weeks. Jockey Joshua Thompson is well worth his 7lb claim imo and has been in decent form of late - 1,2,PU,3,2 in his last five rides and when riding for the trainer since the 23rd April his figures are - 1,1,3,3,1 .. has a 17% strike rate in past fortnight and has a 22% strike rate when coming here to ride overall. At the price i think hes worth an each way punt to nothing.
Another one i think could go well at a decentish price is Simple Star , ran his best race this year (since coming back from a break) last time out when second to Irish raider Impero at Kelso. A repeat of that effort would see him in the mix i feel , especially if hes allowed a soft lead , and i think the drop to a class 4 from a class 2 wont hurt his chances any either. Seems to do well here with a win and two places from his five runs to date , going shouldnt be an issue. Trainer Dianne Sayer has a 25% strike rate when sending her runners here over the last five years along side a profit of +£12.50 , jockey Henry Brooke in the plate and he has a win and a place from his four rides on the horse so far , does okay when coming here with a 10.3% strike rate and a profit of +£10.00 in the last five years and when he and the trainer have teamed up over the last three weeks they have a 25% strike rate.
2.47 Perth - Trailblazer EW 16/1 (Saver - Simple Star EW 9/1)
Quite like the chances of Trailblazer in this , has been holding his form well all season to be honest , since returning to action at the start of the year hes had seven races resulting in figures of - 4,3,4,3,1,2,3, so has been there or thereabouts on all his starts Had wind surgery and since then his form seems to have improved a tad and i honestly cant see any reason why he shouldnt run his race and be on the premises once again. Has won and placed in his two starts over this afternoons CD and has won from a higher mark than todays. Trainer Adam Nicol been amongst the winners and has a 33% strike rate in the last couple of weeks. Jockey Joshua Thompson is well worth his 7lb claim imo and has been in decent form of late - 1,2,PU,3,2 in his last five rides and when riding for the trainer since the 23rd April his figures are - 1,1,3,3,1 .. has a 17% strike rate in past fortnight and has a 22% strike rate when coming here to ride overall. At the price i think hes worth an each way punt to nothing.
Another one i think could go well at a decentish price is Simple Star , ran his best race this year (since coming back from a break) last time out when second to Irish raider Impero at Kelso. A repeat of that effort would see him in the mix i feel , especially if hes allowed a soft lead , and i think the drop to a class 4 from a class 2 wont hurt his chances any either. Seems to do well here with a win and two places from his five runs to date , going shouldnt be an issue. Trainer Dianne Sayer has a 25% strike rate when sending her runners here over the last five years along side a profit of +£12.50 , jockey Henry Brooke in the plate and he has a win and a place from his four rides on the horse so far , does okay when coming here with a 10.3% strike rate and a profit of +£10.00 in the last five years and when he and the trainer have teamed up over the last three weeks they have a 25% strike rate.
Last edited by a moderator:
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Bugger , Trailblazer could only manage fourth (typical !!) and Simple Star was a non runner
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Monday 9th June
7.20 Pontefract - Highwaygrey EW 8/1
Quite like the chances of Highwaygrey in this one , especially as an each way shot. The main thing that caught my eye is his form over CD where he has five wins and five places from his fourteen runs - so obviously has a liking for it round here and you couldnt honestly discount his chances with any certainty. Hasnt shown too much in his three runs since coming back from a lay off , but his penultimate run over this CD was probably his best effort since coming back so im hopeful he can turn in a good performance. Hes now 9 years old and whilst hes not as good as he was i think theres every chance hes capable of going close today. Has won from higher marks than todays , and this drop in the weights wont hurt his chances i dont think. David Allan in the saddle and he knows the horse inside out having won on him eight times and placing in a further thirteen races , been riding well lately with a 15.4% strike rate and a small profit of +£5.00 , and when he has teamed up with trainer Tim Easterby over the last three weeks the pair have a 15% strike rate. At the price i though he was worth a pop.
8.50 Pontefract - Profiteer 13/2 / Loving Apprentice 9/1
Think this one is an open looking race and theres a couple who i think could go close at what i consider to be decent prices. First one is Profiteer whose been going the right way since returning from a 167 day break , ran a decent race last time out when fourth at Redcar and wa short of room so may of been able to get a tad closer than he did so im hoping that with a clear run he can go close here tonight. Yet to win over this distance but has placed in four of his seven starts to date and the fact that hes two from two here at Pontefract gives me hope. Yet to win in this class which is a concern but as i say theres more pluses than negatives so im happy to have a punt. Dave Allan rides and he has won and placed on the horse before. Should be there or thereabouts. At a bigger price Loving Apprentice catches my eye , returned to the course lto after 202 days with a respectable sixth of twelve , and i think now the cobwebs have been blown away he can pick up where he left off before the break , with a win over CD. One from one here , and a win and a place from his two starts over this trip. Callum Rodriquez in the plate and hes won on his sole start on the horse , his CD win , and i rate that as a positive , has a 16.4% strike rate when coming here along with a profit of +£8.08 , Ed Dunlop does well when sending his runners here with a 27% strike rate over the last five years and a healthy profit of +£30.81 so anything he sends here is worth a second look , and the fact that he sends just this one on the 2 hour journey from his Newmarket base makes me think he could go close.
7.20 Pontefract - Highwaygrey EW 8/1
Quite like the chances of Highwaygrey in this one , especially as an each way shot. The main thing that caught my eye is his form over CD where he has five wins and five places from his fourteen runs - so obviously has a liking for it round here and you couldnt honestly discount his chances with any certainty. Hasnt shown too much in his three runs since coming back from a lay off , but his penultimate run over this CD was probably his best effort since coming back so im hopeful he can turn in a good performance. Hes now 9 years old and whilst hes not as good as he was i think theres every chance hes capable of going close today. Has won from higher marks than todays , and this drop in the weights wont hurt his chances i dont think. David Allan in the saddle and he knows the horse inside out having won on him eight times and placing in a further thirteen races , been riding well lately with a 15.4% strike rate and a small profit of +£5.00 , and when he has teamed up with trainer Tim Easterby over the last three weeks the pair have a 15% strike rate. At the price i though he was worth a pop.
8.50 Pontefract - Profiteer 13/2 / Loving Apprentice 9/1
Think this one is an open looking race and theres a couple who i think could go close at what i consider to be decent prices. First one is Profiteer whose been going the right way since returning from a 167 day break , ran a decent race last time out when fourth at Redcar and wa short of room so may of been able to get a tad closer than he did so im hoping that with a clear run he can go close here tonight. Yet to win over this distance but has placed in four of his seven starts to date and the fact that hes two from two here at Pontefract gives me hope. Yet to win in this class which is a concern but as i say theres more pluses than negatives so im happy to have a punt. Dave Allan rides and he has won and placed on the horse before. Should be there or thereabouts. At a bigger price Loving Apprentice catches my eye , returned to the course lto after 202 days with a respectable sixth of twelve , and i think now the cobwebs have been blown away he can pick up where he left off before the break , with a win over CD. One from one here , and a win and a place from his two starts over this trip. Callum Rodriquez in the plate and hes won on his sole start on the horse , his CD win , and i rate that as a positive , has a 16.4% strike rate when coming here along with a profit of +£8.08 , Ed Dunlop does well when sending his runners here with a 27% strike rate over the last five years and a healthy profit of +£30.81 so anything he sends here is worth a second look , and the fact that he sends just this one on the 2 hour journey from his Newmarket base makes me think he could go close.
Last edited by a moderator:
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Tuesday 10th June
7.10 Catterick (Win Singles)
Star Zia 13/2
Crowns Lady 5/1
Jenni 9/1
7.10 Catterick (Win Singles)
Star Zia 13/2
Crowns Lady 5/1
Jenni 9/1
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Tuesday 10th June
7.10 Catterick (Win Singles)
Star Zia 13/2
Crowns Lady 5/1
Jenni 9/1
small profit will do nicely
Nice winner @Sean
D
Deleted member 7256
Guest
Thursday 12th June
4.25 Newbury
Hickory 6/1
saver on Dorney Lake 14/1
4.25 Newbury
Hickory 6/1
saver on Dorney Lake 14/1