• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
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    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
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    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
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    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
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    AR

Win/Place test

This is an attempt to select those that have a "decent" chance of either winning and placing or placing only. The paper staking is £10 at BSP win. The paper stake of £20 to place at BSP is in order to alleviate any win losses. He says hopefully! Let's see how this goes as it has been making paper profits, albeit not large, but now being published I fully expect Mr Sod and Mr Murphy to disrupt my hopes .

1605782952243.png
 
Well I'm pleased to say that Messers Sod and Murphy were off doing mischief elsewhere as a paper profit of £102.84 ensued with 4 of the 7 winning and six placed. Maybe they will visit tomorrow as often as, not a bad day will follow a good day! Results in full below :

1605802787787.png
 
Day two and as so often happens, as I said, a bad day etc etc...... As the Place odds descend into negative territory it might be sensible to leave them out but I'll wait for 7 days to pass before deciding.

Capture 1.PNG
 
Last edited:
The Win/Place bets came out with a 0.56 profit for the day! When you see the 3 day totals the overall profit is £13.35 but if one changed strategy by not betting on the place market and swopped the Place stake of £20 to the win market there would be a win profit of £160.04 ! However I will test the existing strategy for the 7 days, 4 days to go before deciding to drop/keep the place market in play.

Provided the win selections are still in profit at the end of that 7 days then changing the stake from £10 to £20 might be sensible and more profitable..

Capture 1.PNG
 
Interesting day which has made me re-evaluate this Win/Place test. If you look at the screenshot below you will see that today became a serious paper loss of £105. 93. As I've been saying the Place results have been the cause and the 4 day totals show a Place loss of £131.57 and overall a cumulative loss of £96.74. The win results are in profit after 4 days at £34.83.

However look at the highlighted win figures where if limiting the maximum win BSP odds to 6.00, forgetting the place bets, a profit of £124.83 would have been made at the end of the 4 days. Taking my thoughts about using the £20 place stake and applying it to the win bets you can see the possibilities for good profits should the strike rate for win bets at max odds of 6.00 continue.

So the test now will, from tomorrow, concentrate on win bets only at a maximum of 6.00 BSP using a paper £20 stake......let's hope it continues !!


Capture 1.PNG
 
Results today had three of the seven winning for a profit of £72.68.....typically after dropping the place section six of the seven placed! However in the screenshot I have shown what would have been the results had I started from the first day with the total profit at £20 stakes and max odds of 6.00, reaching £322.34 in the five days. I've yet to work out what the profit would be applying a 2% of Bank each day.........:D

Capture 1.PNG
 

River Dee

Yearling
Results today had three of the seven winning for a profit of £72.68.....typically after dropping the place section six of the seven placed! However in the screenshot I have shown what would have been the results had I started from the first day with the total profit at £20 stakes and max odds of 6.00, reaching £322.34 in the five days. I've yet to work out what the profit would be applying a 2% of Bank each day.........:D

View attachment 92144
Hi savernake savernake

Nice strike rates there well done, however your point gained 322.34 does not add up or have I mist a trick.

19.2​
-20​
8.24​
-20​
-20​
-20​
28.62​
26.66​
-20​
20.38​
-20​
84.28​
-20​
53.9​
-20​
-20​
46.06​
-20​
-20​
57.23​
49.39​
total =
173.96
 

River Dee

Yearling
I think it was what you call hitting the buffers sort of day : All got placed of course!!

View attachment 92167

Hope you do not mind but I have compiled all to date, well done again will follow with interest.


Bets
P/L Money
P/L BSP Net
BSP All
1​
19.2​
0.98​
1.98​
2​
-20​
-1​
4.47​
3​
8.24​
0.42​
1.42​
4​
-20​
-1​
4.99​
5​
-20​
-1​
1.75​
6​
-20​
-1​
3.4​
7​
28.62​
1.46​
2.46​
8​
26.66​
1.36​
2.36​
9​
-20​
-1​
4.77​
10​
20.38​
1.04​
2.04​
11​
-20​
-1​
2.72​
12​
84.28​
4.3​
5.3​
13​
-20​
-1​
5.37​
14​
53.9​
2.75​
3.75​
15​
-20​
-1​
3.12​
16​
-20​
-1​
3.87​
17​
46.06​
2.35​
3.35​
18​
-20​
-1​
4.11​
19​
-20​
-1​
2.56​
20​
57.23​
2.92​
3.92​
21​
49.39​
2.52​
3.52​
Total =
173.96
22​
-20​
-1​
4.5​
23​
-20​
-1​
3.45​
24​
-20​
-1​
5.9​
25​
-20​
-1​
2.21​
Total =
93.96
P/l - LS = 5.10
10 wins from 25 = 40%
Average Backed SP 5/2
Average SP wins 1/1 Evens
 
Thanks for your comments and I find this quite extraordinary as I've just checked my spreadsheet again and using the Epsilon auto sum mode (Open Office Calc), it still comes up with the total as being £322.34 but you are quite right that the total, checked by hand on a calculator, is £173.96. Totally weird and worrying as to why it has incorrectly added up the column and made this error.

I have just opened a blank spreadsheet and copied the Win P/L figures into it applied the Epsilon and id comes to £322.24 again....however the copy column had two odd entries that were not on the first sheet as high lighted below which explains the difference of £148.38! I have no idea where they came from...a real mystery. Any my thanks for pointing it out and my apologies to all for not noticing it myself...a Stupid Boy Pike moment!! I'm not sure about today's selections as I am about to go out for several hours but there may be some late afternoon bets when I get back!



19.2​
19.02
129.36
-20​
8.24​
-20​
-20​
-20​
28.62​
26.66​
-20​
20.38​
-20​
84.28​
-20​
53.9​
-20​
-20​
46.06​
-20​
-20​
57.23​
49.39​
322.34​
 

River Dee

Yearling
Hi savernake savernake

Not a problem, just thought as it was in testing mode best point it out before hard cash was placed, your right in that it was strange others did pick it up given there involvement on the thread.
 
Thanks again River Dee. I don't know why I didn't spot it ..... got too excited about the profit I guess!! I'm still having problems with Open Office Calc as it's decided that when I want to move a tab to a new window it goes into Read Only mode and I can't move or close it on the second screen. Ruddy cyber world.

Anyway I'm back and the only two that made early selection in the remaining handicaps are currently at 9.00 and 13 so fail on the price filter! Back tomorrow with hopefully no more problems and a corrected spreadsheet.
 
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