Frontrunner
Stallion
Another experiment from me after the failure of daily naps. There is not a lot of change in my selection methods, experiment is more in terms of staking. Most of the selections will be horses that I think will run well but don’t feel so confident about winning, hence I will be putting more on place part than win on these. I will give it a month or so and see how it goes. I will keep a P/L record to BetfairSP (minus 5% commission).
6:00 Wexford - The West’s Awake, 0.2 pt win, 0.8 pt place (3 places)
The gamble on R’Evelyn Pleasure has meant that everything else, including the selection, is on the drift. RP does have a chance but the price of 9/4 looks too short now. There doesn’t appear to be much depth to the race as is often the case with these veterans’ races. The West’s Awake is the only one of these to have won a race within last 12 months, a handicap chase off 1 lb lower than today.
One negative is that in 5 runs since that win his one really disappointing effort was over this CD. He had little chance in the Galway Plate or the Grand Sefton at Aintree, but in between those two races he put in a couple of placed efforts in Grade 2 handicaps. In the Galway Plate, although he eventually finished a long way behind Ben Dundee (8th) he ran well for a long way and as he doesn’t seem to stay further than 2 and half miles, I think he has a chance of turning it around with the favourite over this distance.
Ben Dundee has the class to win this but the fact that he hasn’t won a race for over 3 years makes taking short price about him risky. Alpha Des Obeaux also hasn’t won for over three years. Robin Des Foret won a race for Willie Mullins last year, but is yet to place in 6 runs for his new trainer so he is another with question marks now. Other four runners are running from out of the handicap even if it is only by a pound or two.
Selection is one of the most consistent in this field with a 45% place strike rate over his career, and he has continued to run well by finishing out of places only 5 times from 12 races in last two years. 5 month break since his last run doesn’t appear to be a problem to me as he has run well on his return for last 3 years - 1st of 6 @ 8/1 in 2019, 3rd of 9 @ 12/1 in 2020 & 9th of 24 @ 66/1 in Grade 1 at Punchestown festival last year.
One thing a bit confusing is that they are running him without any headgear (has worn blinkers for last two years and cheekpieces before that) for first time in 3 years, incidentally he won the last time they removed the headgear and in total 5 of his 6 wins have come without any headgear.
6:00 Wexford - The West’s Awake, 0.2 pt win, 0.8 pt place (3 places)
The gamble on R’Evelyn Pleasure has meant that everything else, including the selection, is on the drift. RP does have a chance but the price of 9/4 looks too short now. There doesn’t appear to be much depth to the race as is often the case with these veterans’ races. The West’s Awake is the only one of these to have won a race within last 12 months, a handicap chase off 1 lb lower than today.
One negative is that in 5 runs since that win his one really disappointing effort was over this CD. He had little chance in the Galway Plate or the Grand Sefton at Aintree, but in between those two races he put in a couple of placed efforts in Grade 2 handicaps. In the Galway Plate, although he eventually finished a long way behind Ben Dundee (8th) he ran well for a long way and as he doesn’t seem to stay further than 2 and half miles, I think he has a chance of turning it around with the favourite over this distance.
Ben Dundee has the class to win this but the fact that he hasn’t won a race for over 3 years makes taking short price about him risky. Alpha Des Obeaux also hasn’t won for over three years. Robin Des Foret won a race for Willie Mullins last year, but is yet to place in 6 runs for his new trainer so he is another with question marks now. Other four runners are running from out of the handicap even if it is only by a pound or two.
Selection is one of the most consistent in this field with a 45% place strike rate over his career, and he has continued to run well by finishing out of places only 5 times from 12 races in last two years. 5 month break since his last run doesn’t appear to be a problem to me as he has run well on his return for last 3 years - 1st of 6 @ 8/1 in 2019, 3rd of 9 @ 12/1 in 2020 & 9th of 24 @ 66/1 in Grade 1 at Punchestown festival last year.
One thing a bit confusing is that they are running him without any headgear (has worn blinkers for last two years and cheekpieces before that) for first time in 3 years, incidentally he won the last time they removed the headgear and in total 5 of his 6 wins have come without any headgear.
