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    Ark Royal
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    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


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Where Do I Begin?

markfinn

Sire
Now I know this is a different context to horseracing. But I can vouch for the benefits of using the principles illustrated above; the contrarion approach to starting by throwing masses of data and computing at a problem. In the race distance case above I was trying to find a way of 'getting into the head of the trainer/connection' about entering a horse to have a chance of winning at a good price.

Sorry I missed this when you 1st posted - very nice example of what most traditional form readers overlook - ie - the possibility that previous form may not be all that's required to win the race -as you say the market is driven by such form.

How often do we second guess trainers ! - far to often
 
I was amazed to read this, there is so much information available on the forum regarding speed figures.
The most difficult aspect of compiling speed figures is the ability to calculate going allowances.

Here are my own flat turf speed figures, you can scroll the list.
FlatTurf2018.xlsx

Mike.

Hi,

I know you kindly posted this reply months ago. Now i have more time on my hands i am going to try to develop an automated way of calculating my own speed figures from the instructions you kindly provided.

In your attachment speedfigures.txt, you mention .2 seconds per length. If i want to calculate the speed figure for a horse that finished 2nd by say half a length in its previous race, would i use the value of .1 second for the half length beaten?

What would this value be if a horse finished 2nd, beaten by a nose?

I would appreciate your advice.

Thanks again
Giuseppe
 

ArkRoyal

Administrator
giuseppe_esq giuseppe_esq

It was always a good idea that when asking a particular member a question that you use the @ and put their name after it (as I have done above) that way the member will get an alert that they have been mentioned in a thread.
 
Hi TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother

I know you kindly posted this reply months ago. Now i have more time on my hands i am going to try to develop an automated way of calculating my own speed figures from the instructions you kindly provided.

In your attachment speedfigures.txt, you mention .2 seconds per length. If i want to calculate the speed figure for a horse that finished 2nd by say half a length in its previous race, would i use the value of .1 second for the half length beaten?

What would this value be if a horse finished 2nd, beaten by a nose?

I would appreciate your advice.

Thanks again
Giuseppe
 
In your attachment speedfigures.txt, you mention .2 seconds per length. If i want to calculate the speed figure for a horse that finished 2nd by say half a length in its previous race, would i use the value of .1 second for the half length beaten?

Example used was from the 8:30 Dundalk last night, the winner Lapilli is of interest to me, and was placed into my tracker.

The first thing I do is calculate the going allowance to produce the winners speed figures.

DUNDALK2.png

The runner up Lily's Prince was beaten 0.5 length but carried 10lb more than the winner, the lbs per length for 6f at Dundalk is 2.85.

0.5x2.85 = 1.43 (subtract from the winners speed figure of 54 = 52.57 (53)
Add on the 10lb extra Lily's Prince carried over the winner 53+10 = 63

Always muliply the beaten lengths by the lbs per length for that distance.

So the 3rd horse Ken's Sam's would be 5.25x2.85 =14.96 (15)
(54-15)+13 = 52

DUNDALK.png

All this becomes irrevant because to me, the major factor is the going allowances, and you might have your own ideas on calculating speed figures.

If you become a memeber of the RP you can use their ratings tool...

Mike.
 
Last edited:

davejb

Mare
Hi giuseppe_esq giuseppe_esq
To answer part of your query, MIke ( TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother compiles a standard times file which contains a 'seconds per length' value for each track and distance, so there isn't a fixed '0.2s per length' figure for use in all cases when compiling 'BluesBrother speed figures' - for example at Kempton the allowance for 5f is 3.4s per length, whilst at Lingfield it id 3.5s,

The variation in the figure is due to the value being derived from the standard time for that distance and track, so as standard times vary so do the seconds per length value - the further the race, the longer the standard time, the shorter the seconds per length value.

For fractions of a length I use fixed values, 0.03 for a Nose, 0.05 for a Short Head, 0.1 Head and 0.15 Neck, for anything further I use the seconds per length figure from Mike's standard times.

Dave
Oops, I see Mike types faster than me!
 

Horseplayer

Gelding
Distance beaten is translated from time, then for speed figures you want to translate back into time. In this country there's no easily obtained data for just times. The translations not fixed though different times can represent the same distance

The following are time beaten and number of times that time has been used to translate into the distance beaten

btsh.png


So a horse beaten a nose has been beaten by less than 1/100th os a second 2368 and by 0.01 1629 times.

A length looks like

btl.png
 
Distance beaten is translated from time, then for speed figures you want to translate back into time. In this country there's no easily obtained data for just times. The translations not fixed though different times can represent the same distance

The following are time beaten and number of times that time has been used to translate into the distance beaten

View attachment 69553


So a horse beaten a nose has been beaten by less than 1/100th os a second 2368 and by 0.01 1629 times.

A length looks like

View attachment 69554

Thank you for this
 

davejb

Mare
Giuseppe I misspoke before, I was thinking weight, where I said 'seconds per length' for Mike's table it's 'lbs per length', sorry to be an idiot but I was thinking of the ratings which are all in 'lbs'... a horse doing 30mph will run 'a neck' in about 0.045s whilst the fastest 2f recorded (just under 44mph) would run that in 0.03s give or take a tiny fraction. My 0.15 is lbs difference for being beaten a neck.

Apologies if this confused you, I had a brain fart.
Dave
 
Giuseppe I misspoke before, I was thinking weight, where I said 'seconds per length' for Mike's table it's 'lbs per length', sorry to be an idiot but I was thinking of the ratings which are all in 'lbs'... a horse doing 30mph will run 'a neck' in about 0.045s whilst the fastest 2f recorded (just under 44mph) would run that in 0.03s give or take a tiny fraction. My 0.15 is lbs difference for being beaten a neck.

Apologies if this confused you, I had a brain fart.
Dave

No need to apologize, I am grateful that people gave the decency to reply.

Don't worry, I am easily confused lol.

There are some very knowledgeable people on these forums, who i am learning from.

Hopefully, I can give something back when I have created and tested some systems

Many Thanks
Giuseppe
 
I have amended the layout of TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother Standard Times spreadsheet so I can import it into a database table. Unfortunately, I need to create a lookup table for the distances, as those I obtain from the HRB data I use are not exact and do not match those in the Standard Times. Arggggghhhh!
 
I have amended the layout of @TheBluesBrother Standard Times spreadsheet so I can import it into a database table. Unfortunately, I need to create a lookup table for the distances, as those I obtain from the HRB data I use are not exact and do not match those in the Standard Times. Arggggghhhh!

I keep on updating the standard times list, I have just upted the AW standards.

StandardTimes.xls

Mike.
 
I will update these. I doubt I will get my speed ratings, using an automated method to be as accurate as yours, as there are so many variables, but I will see what I come out with lol.

You cannot automate going allowances, this is the most critical function in producing accurate speed figures.
The problem gets more acute when you have to deal with rail movements and dodgy official race distances notably in Ireland, there are so many factors and variables to be considered, one of the main ones will be...do you have the time!

Mike.
 
A

Archived User Guest 1

Guest
TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother .

Hi Mike.

I have just read that you have updated the AW speed figs. May I ask if you have noticed that much difference in the ratings say compared to 5 years ago? My reason for asking is I cannot help but think that the surfaces have been improved over the years from the manufacturers. If so, how much difference this would make to the ratings.

Regards
Orion
 
You cannot automate going allowances, this is the most critical function in producing accurate speed figures.
The problem gets more acute when you have to deal with rail movements and dodgy official race distances notably in Ireland, there are so many factors and variables to be considered, one of the main ones will be...do you have the time!

Mike.

I suppose I could use variables to update the rail movements by track for a given day. This would mean updating a single field and then updating the data. As for the going allowances, these can be stored in a separate table to the standard times and cross referenced. I suppose I’m more of a SQL Server nerd than a horse race betting guru.
 
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