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What is the technique to predict a football match draw?


I have found that teams playing each other while both are in the bottom third of their respective league table tends to yield a few draws... often 0-0 - I used to use these matches for under 2.5 goal markets as well - but it's best to only pick from relatively low-scoring leagues though. A good resource is the following link which gives an indication of current world leagues that are graded by their draw records;



Another school of thought is that the higher the goal average in both match and league promotes more different score results and the probability of a draw is reduced. For instance, if the league average is for argument's sake is a lowly 2 goals per game, then to achieve that average some games will score higher, and some lower. Presuming you can allow +/- 1 goal, then you can expect all goal variations up to 3 goals per game. This then means that the probable results would be; 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2, 1-2 and 2-1. With those 8 scorelines, 25% are draws. You could probably improve on that 25% probability a bit by avoiding 1-sided matches or strong home favourites.
if you bet on games where the league averages are higher, you add more non-draw scorelines to the mix, but only adding the 2-2 to it as well. Bearing in mind that high averages will mean far less 0-0 results, you lose some of that draw likelyhood as well.
So based on that theory, you should look for even match-ups in low-scoring leagues, particularly with teams that are low-scorers.


How about finding two evenly matched teams that don't score many goals
Completely agree, and quite obvious when you think about it. A prime example is today's Championship game - Sheffield Wednesday v Derby. The supporting stats;
- both teams are in the bottom 1/3 of the table (22nd and 20th respectively)
- the league averages a paltry 2.2 goals per game
- Sheffield Wednesday's home record this season is 8:8 in goals, while Derby's away record is 9:9
- both teams currently over 2.3 odds in the market to win (BF Exchange), though Derby is the favourite (at 2.36) probably due to lack of confidence in the home team to win because they sacked their manager (Tony Pulis) a few days ago.

The home team at 3.65 represents pretty good value to me... they are 2 places from the bottom, but won their game in the week (2-1 against 9th placed Middlesbro) which was their 1st game played after the sacking. Derby are only 2 places above them... though the above stats suggest this does seem to be good for the draw, for this match I would actually hedge my bets and just lay Darby for the win, and so backing the home win and the draw.


As a Stoke Fan we are we’re a one man team attacking wise. When Campbell got injured we were screwed. Ive not looked at the stats but I think we’ve drawn more since then. Ings was out a while how did S9uthampton get on in that interim period?
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All outcomes are unpredictable. The only thing that matters are the odds on offer in relation to the expected outcome.
Draw odds can offer value where the a 'big name team' is punted just because of that, who they are, and the draw odds get slightly inflated.
If a team has a heavy fixture period then that can be a good place to look for the 'unexpected' result going against the grain.