A
arahad
Guest
What is the technique to predict a football match draw?
paulb164
Colt
I have found that teams playing each other while both are in the bottom third of their respective league table tends to yield a few draws... often 0-0 - I used to use these matches for under 2.5 goal markets as well - but it's best to only pick from relatively low-scoring leagues though. A good resource is the following link which gives an indication of current world leagues that are graded by their draw records;
www.soccervista.com
BetExplorer soccer stats - results, tables, soccer stats & odds
Soccer stats at BetExplorer offer soccer results, tables and stats service. Statistics, results, tables & odds for 100+ soccer leagues.
www.soccervista.com
Sameernasri
Filly
The defensive minded sides like Burnley, Athletic Bilbao usually have many of their games end in draw
paulb164
Colt
Another school of thought is that the higher the goal average in both match and league promotes more different score results and the probability of a draw is reduced. For instance, if the league average is for argument's sake is a lowly 2 goals per game, then to achieve that average some games will score higher, and some lower. Presuming you can allow +/- 1 goal, then you can expect all goal variations up to 3 goals per game. This then means that the probable results would be; 0-0, 1-0, 1-1, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2, 1-2 and 2-1. With those 8 scorelines, 25% are draws. You could probably improve on that 25% probability a bit by avoiding 1-sided matches or strong home favourites.
if you bet on games where the league averages are higher, you add more non-draw scorelines to the mix, but only adding the 2-2 to it as well. Bearing in mind that high averages will mean far less 0-0 results, you lose some of that draw likelyhood as well.
So based on that theory, you should look for even match-ups in low-scoring leagues, particularly with teams that are low-scorers.
if you bet on games where the league averages are higher, you add more non-draw scorelines to the mix, but only adding the 2-2 to it as well. Bearing in mind that high averages will mean far less 0-0 results, you lose some of that draw likelyhood as well.
So based on that theory, you should look for even match-ups in low-scoring leagues, particularly with teams that are low-scorers.
paulb164
Colt
Completely agree, and quite obvious when you think about it. A prime example is today's Championship game - Sheffield Wednesday v Derby. The supporting stats;
- both teams are in the bottom 1/3 of the table (22nd and 20th respectively)
- the league averages a paltry 2.2 goals per game
- Sheffield Wednesday's home record this season is 8:8 in goals, while Derby's away record is 9:9
- both teams currently over 2.3 odds in the market to win (BF Exchange), though Derby is the favourite (at 2.36) probably due to lack of confidence in the home team to win because they sacked their manager (Tony Pulis) a few days ago.
The home team at 3.65 represents pretty good value to me... they are 2 places from the bottom, but won their game in the week (2-1 against 9th placed Middlesbro) which was their 1st game played after the sacking. Derby are only 2 places above them... though the above stats suggest this does seem to be good for the draw, for this match I would actually hedge my bets and just lay Darby for the win, and so backing the home win and the draw.
Delboy99
Sire
.... are lottery and dice not unpredictable too!
retriever
Stallion
All outcomes are unpredictable. The only thing that matters are the odds on offer in relation to the expected outcome.
Draw odds can offer value where the a 'big name team' is punted just because of that, who they are, and the draw odds get slightly inflated.
If a team has a heavy fixture period then that can be a good place to look for the 'unexpected' result going against the grain.
Draw odds can offer value where the a 'big name team' is punted just because of that, who they are, and the draw odds get slightly inflated.
If a team has a heavy fixture period then that can be a good place to look for the 'unexpected' result going against the grain.
Jack the Russell
Yearling
Fantastic post paulb164
I came up with a very similar idea to this and tested loads of games, I did all the making and testing through my scanner which is a fantatic tool I was never any good with spread sheets and keeping records but I found more or less this system worked, and made a small profit over many games, I then went on to test the games from the system and then trying to thin them down through the form book, , this way I ended up worse off, so what I found was to blanket bet all qualifires, but as I said in the video I was getting alot of bets that I would not of wanted,I pointed the PETROLUL game out as an example in the vid and it went on to lose, but it was still better than me thinning them out with the form book.
have a look see what you think
copy and paste into youtube
Looking For Football Draws Part (1) by Green up
Last edited:
cosmicsports
Colt
I don't know this.
Depends what sort of match it is.
Derby or onesided ?
I don't think the probability of draw can be bigger than 40%, unless both teams are happy with the draw and don't want to score (n.b. happens sometimes !).
This 40% materializes when the buildup is slow, high defensive formations.
Just the same draw tends to pay. So with this advice try to be selective with your draws and see what happens.
Depends what sort of match it is.
Derby or onesided ?
I don't think the probability of draw can be bigger than 40%, unless both teams are happy with the draw and don't want to score (n.b. happens sometimes !).
This 40% materializes when the buildup is slow, high defensive formations.
Just the same draw tends to pay. So with this advice try to be selective with your draws and see what happens.
Jack the Russell
Yearling
Hi,
cosmicsports I totally agree if its a one off game ,or to bet big money on I would want to watch it live, and if not I would spend time in the form book pre game, but the post
paulb164 put up, I take it he was trying to find a systematic way of finding the games, and so was I, and what he did was very similar to what I wanted to try out, I blanket covered the 10 games just to make it easy for the video, so I was finding 50 or so games, per batch, and used the top 10 best predicted low scoring games to test for draws over a month or so and see what happened,, this used to be my hobby trying different football trading strategys out, and taking them live inplay with small pocket money stakes, nothing to serious.
cosmicsports
Colt
Hi,
Well, I don't back them draws.
It's psychological. I want to get paid when something happens, not wait for one and a half hour and wish for something not to happen !
I mean it may turn out to be the same situation when I back a winner, but at least teams have the chance to increase the score and lock the match.
Anyway draws used to be more frequent in the old days but since the back pass to the goalkeeper was made illegal things changed.
Jack the Russell
Yearling
Draws are not for me either,
I enjoyed the 1.5 fhg's inplay this was the only way I could show any kind of decent profit or I should say points, I would have decent runs in most of my other strats but they usually came back to break even or worse, probably because I kept tweaking them trying to get them to work better, I was always after the next strat, I went through a phase of using the bots but was never that the interested in them, I much preferred studying form, like I said it was all just a hobby for me, I enjoyed trying to find different ways to play, I have had 10 years on and off trading football,and apart from a couple of more footie video's I made over 7 months back I have not really bothered that much in the last 2 years or so, this is the new project lol. the horses.
I enjoyed the 1.5 fhg's inplay this was the only way I could show any kind of decent profit or I should say points, I would have decent runs in most of my other strats but they usually came back to break even or worse, probably because I kept tweaking them trying to get them to work better, I was always after the next strat, I went through a phase of using the bots but was never that the interested in them, I much preferred studying form, like I said it was all just a hobby for me, I enjoyed trying to find different ways to play, I have had 10 years on and off trading football,and apart from a couple of more footie video's I made over 7 months back I have not really bothered that much in the last 2 years or so, this is the new project lol. the horses.