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VDW

"Still trying to figure out the Erin numbers"

It is a matter of linking the runners' form and that of the respective key horses. (Only potentially relevant for runners with what VDW called "exposed" form, not those with "less obvious" form.)
 
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I find that the position in the betting of the winner, plus his position last out, plus his position in the betting last out makes for a helpful rating. I've also heard of doing the same thing with the favourite instead of the winner, which might be seen as a bit more contentious.

I also know that there have been suggestions that using the previous position of the winners of the last three races is another way, though personally I've found that less helpful.

I wouldn't go as far as to say you shouldn't get hung up on them... especially without telling you what they are and I don't know for a fact what they are.

If I could definitively say what they are, I would. (I'm not implying nobody knows. Maybe there is a secret way people are making thousands with them. If I knew them in that scenario I might not tell you!)

But I have heard of a number of ways, all revolving around favourites, winners, position in betting, finishing position.
 
For what it's worth, I have found the VDW ideas of class and consistency work better in handicaps. I suspect many will disagree with me.

My theory is that it's because the class jumps usually aren't so great.

A good trainer of a handicap probably won't seriously tilt at windmills. The class a handicapper runs well in kind of remains the same... while acknowledging you get fast improvers.

When the principals have been in a similar arena it's easier, in my opinion, to judge how well they have comparatively been doing.

In non handicaps often you get maidens against Group winners, and good handicappers against solid Group "placers", and it's harder, for me at least, to compare and be adamant about the merits of their form.
 
Buraback is interesting, thanks Chesham Chesham

I've seen some of your posts and I think you aren't necessarily a complete devotee of VDW, or at least, see other paths, so I have a question if I may.

I've always thought of as the key horse in a race being the winner, or second horse. Conquistador was 3rd of course. So when you say "key" should I assume you aren't saying key as in VDW key, or are we on different pages as to a VDW key horse?

Re Conquistador, I think it's interesting when a horse goes up in grade like him, but down in class, as in value of race.
I say interesting, bloody annoying really because it brings a bit of conflict. :D

I guess though that the ORs were in general higher, and more importantly (to me anyway) he went to a better course.

Interesting food for thought, thanks.
 
I have just read your previous post (who wants to be chronological!) linking to HOT Races Extra which answered my question about the use of the word key.
 
PlayUpPompey said:
I have just read your previous post (who wants to be chronological!) linking to HOT Races Extra which answered my question about the use of the word key.
Click to expand...
You can use the 2nd LTO Race for the Key Form . On the old Horseplayer Horseplayer thread we posted quite a lot of Pre Rce examples.

I have used green ticks to indicate that form the 2nd LTO race it is hot with improvers. Those referred to in Green all improved their Speed fig NTO

IMG_0747.jpeg.
 
Sometimes he mentions other horses, but let’s concentrate on Sunset Cristo. VDW: ‘The form is impressive and note not only how it ran but what it had behind it , Silver Buck, Another Captain’
 
That phrase "who it had behind it" is what I believe is the most crucial part of the VDW
literature. Most bettors when looking at the form of a horse that finished third will
concentrate upon the form of the horses that finished in first and second place.
What made VDW so special was that he would be more concerned in the form of the
horses that finished in fourth and fifth place in this specific race.
It is sometimes stated that the Sunset Cristo example is the one that holds most clues.
If going down this avenue then VDW specifically stated something like "Sunset Cristo
should have been taken because of who it had behind it."

I see that my post is very similar to that of Chesham.
 
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These two horses that he mentioned were behind SC in different races not the same race. So VDW appears to be using these two horses to indicate how impressive the Form is of his recent races
VDW said the Class of Race can be Different to the Class Of Horse Competing

Sometimes he mentions other horses, but let’s concentrate on Sunset Christo VDW: The form is impressive and note not only how it ran but what it had behind it , Silver Buck, Another Captain

The two horses mentioned competed in separate races against Sunset Christo. VDW is indicating that Form should be measured against the ability level of the horses that Sunset Cristo had behind him, he was using these runners as a benchmark for the quality of the form that Sunset Cristo Presented

From memory after SC met Silver Buck, that Silver Buck had gone on to win The King George which was run before the SC example Race



If you Rate A Boxer it is by the quality of opponents he has fought against.
 
Hi Chesham that statement by vdw class of race can be different from class of race competing.. is this when finishing in the places
 
nagwa said:
Hi Chesham that statement by vdw class of race can be different from class of race competing.. is this when finishing in the places
Click to expand...
Think of someone who throws a a party for “ A Lister Celebrities “ but imagine if only “B Listers “turned up . Can it still an A Lister Party .
 
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