I have been rather idle recently when making selections in not applying the 'subject to further consideration' test after 'narrowing the field'. I applied it today and will see if it makes any difference to the outcome. However, the race looks a nightmare to solve for punters with the extreme distance to get over the soft ground probably getting softer.
Kelso (going forecast GS some S showers) market odds from 09.55. L Russell top track trainer.
1.05 Market expected no's 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 11 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 9/4, contender 9/2, not expected longer than 9/1. No's 10, 11, 12 not considered as outof the long hcap
11. 000*
2. *00*
3. **00
4. *0** The Ferry Master (4/1) 2 tips (C). LTO 36, -10lb*, =class, same jock. 5/6? -15L? ridden weakened from 3 out? Selection reason trainerjockey in form*.
5. *0*0 Cash To Ash (13/2) 2 tips. LTO 36, -13lb* +1 class? J Hamilton up. 2/10*-1 1/2L* ridden hard pressed kept on headed*. Selection reason 2nd race last year.
6. 0*0*
7. *00* Niceandeasy (8/1) 3 tips. LTO 35, -6lb, =cls, same jock. 5/9? -5 1/2L? Stayed on run in nearest finish. Selection reason felt race D could be suitable.
8. *00*
9. 00*0
10. 0000
11? *000
12? 0000
13? 0000
My comment: An interesting problem to try and solve. I point those named for interest
.
The ATR form verdict in comparison.
With eight course victories to his name, last year's victor Big River makes obvious appeal despite having to saddle top-weight. All About Joe landed the Durham National in October and he's unexposed over marathon trips so he must be feared, although CYCLOP edges the vote. David Dennis' charge caught the eye in the Southern National last month, where he appeared to be struggling early on, only to stay on in the closing stages. He's just 2lb above his last winning mark and the return to this trip should suit. Wake Up Early and Cash To Ash are others to note.
Top Tip: CYCLOP (2)
Watch out for: BIG RIVER (1)