VDW examples analysed via the approach he showed in his 1988 Mackeson discussion (Pegwell Bay)

[Tufnel]

After analysing todays favs only done the two meetings this afternoon so at 30% winning you would exspect 2 to 4 horses no more as would then jump to high.
I only looked at first three in betting see if the two closest where meriting dangers which would throw fav out of being justified fav, And of course something bigger price could come and shock but at least would need beat a justified fav for the race.
So when i looked through them i got 4 and surprising as was not meant to happen one was second fav who i thought had enough to be a justified fav.
So here is the four lets see if they run well as they should do at least.

ROUGUE STATE 1 40 MUSSELBURGH.
This horse has been fancied last twice and beat running to free both at ripon but this track should suit better for that.
Went to omeara for last run and he put cheeks on to help and going by TS and RPR was far better run than last races so he might now have track to suit its style trainer going well and dangers look nothing special.

DUNNINGTON LAD 3 10 MUSSELBURGH.
This horse won twice at ripon making all and again i think this track should suit front running or being close up with pace.
Flying the flag for stable over flat this horse has nice jockey claiming 7lb which should help has had couple winners lately so could be good move bagging him to ride this.
Just noticed not fav now and that the beauty i mentioned earlier do you just put fav in these races or name horse lets see what happens.

LITTLE TED 4 10 MUSSELBURGH.
This is the one i thougth should be fav but actually second fav now third fav, Last time it won was here and i think ground ideal to run well.
Back to amile should suit and d allan on it for first time in while is interesting too.
The main reason i land on them is the horses round them in betting dont look as strong for what ever reason.

EY UP ITS THE BOSS 2 25 RIPON.
This is a other one who i just noticed is not fav now but was selection this morning anyway.
This horse run third two days ago in a race i fancied the winner strongly and won last time here so i think really strong reasons to be fav here.
Jockey on it has had winner lately when fancied so looks solid booking.
Trainer having ok season on turf too i think he will fancy this if ground dosnt get wet.

So will be interesting on two points today do my justified favs do well or do favs in finished forcast do well at end of race.
Well three points actually is it total wash out of favs or close to market and big price winners.

Ey Up It's The Boss is one I'm backing today, but on my current form that may have just put a stone on it's back.
Anyway, I think it's the one to be on, and the short gap between races is not always a hinderance.
Though there was a winner recently that was well beaten a few days before, and connections gave the excuse as it ran flat due to feeling the effects of a race just 4 days beforehand. The stewards accepted that but didn't seem too bothered when instead of giving the horse a rest, they ran just a few days later and won.
Which just confirms what we all know. That there is a lot of wool being pulled over the eyes of the stewards and the public.
Good luck with your selections.

 

[Tufnel]

Well, wouldn't you know it. The trainer of that excuse horse I referred to, was the trainer of Woodstock City. First time dropped into a class 5 event having run 3 times in class 2, 4 times in class 3 and once in class 4 last time when slowly away and in rear before staying on.
As VDW followers, how could we have missed the way this horse had been placed, by a fairly well known canny yard?

Also, how did I miss this EUITB stat below?
Answer is I didn't. I just ignored it.

 

[Tufnel]

This run is just from May of this year, first run after being gelded.
How on earth did this go unnoticed? Bearing in mind we are talking about a class 5 race today at Musselburgh.
Just look at the ORs and class of this race.

 

[Tufnel]

And just to compound things >>

 

[gerry]

After analysing todays favs only done the two meetings this afternoon so at 30% winning you would exspect 2 to 4 horses no more as would then jump to high.
I only looked at first three in betting see if the two closest where meriting dangers which would throw fav out of being justified fav, And of course something bigger price could come and shock but at least would need beat a justified fav for the race.
So when i looked through them i got 4 and surprising as was not meant to happen one was second fav who i thought had enough to be a justified fav.
So here is the four lets see if they run well as they should do at least.

ROUGUE STATE 1 40 MUSSELBURGH.
This horse has been fancied last twice and beat running to free both at ripon but this track should suit better for that.
Went to omeara for last run and he put cheeks on to help and going by TS and RPR was far better run than last races so he might now have track to suit its style trainer going well and dangers look nothing special.

DUNNINGTON LAD 3 10 MUSSELBURGH.
This horse won twice at ripon making all and again i think this track should suit front running or being close up with pace.
Flying the flag for stable over flat this horse has nice jockey claiming 7lb which should help has had couple winners lately so could be good move bagging him to ride this.
Just noticed not fav now and that the beauty i mentioned earlier do you just put fav in these races or name horse lets see what happens.

LITTLE TED 4 10 MUSSELBURGH.
This is the one i thougth should be fav but actually second fav now third fav, Last time it won was here and i think ground ideal to run well.
Back to amile should suit and d allan on it for first time in while is interesting too.
The main reason i land on them is the horses round them in betting dont look as strong for what ever reason.

EY UP ITS THE BOSS 2 25 RIPON.
This is a other one who i just noticed is not fav now but was selection this morning anyway.
This horse run third two days ago in a race i fancied the winner strongly and won last time here so i think really strong reasons to be fav here.
Jockey on it has had winner lately when fancied so looks solid booking.
Trainer having ok season on turf too i think he will fancy this if ground dosnt get wet.

So will be interesting on two points today do my justified favs do well or do favs in finished forcast do well at end of race.
Well three points actually is it total wash out of favs or close to market and big price winners.

So what can we analyse about this method of fair favs, Well the first thing is it didnt work out as was exspected for sure and that was just looking at first three in betting to see if they justified being there.
Only one of the four races got the fav to win and it wasnt a selection so just writing fav down would have been even worse as only 2/1 where as selections got a 9/2 winner.
In the four races there was a fav winner a second fav winner a third fav winner and a compleat outsider winner.
The only positive i see so far is looking at just the first three in betting in the choosen races would have gave three out of four winners.
But betting all three in each race would have showed a loss too.
The only positive i can give if any is it showed slight profit with little ted winning at 9/2 and the main positive was the stable jockey back on it after missing ride for 8 races in row and he does get stables most winners .

 

[gerry]

So lets try it today again with two worthy favs with the right jockey on it to see if the jockey does really make it more important.
SPRING IS SPRUNG 4 55 CATTERICK.
This horse pulls and likes to take it up and it could be this track will really suit it. Has a very good consistancy to and seems to be getting better now midgley got it, Nolan only rode it once so far and i think this could be a all the way winner.
EVELYNS PHOENIX 3 35 MUSSELBURGH.
Again d allan on this one same as yesterday and seems to be improving i think track again could suit if takes it up earlier and kicks on.
Distance looks perfect at this track and i think at least there worthy favs.