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UFC on fox 15

bully3061

bully3061

Yearling
Been having good results with UFC finding value as we do. Still learning but tonight the value has to be in the Rockhold v Machida fight. 7/5 for Machida is very fair as id just side with him 55/45. Machida has the tools to match Rockhold on the feet and keep him guessing. The worry i sometimes have with Machida is he can drift but this fight may lead to another title crack so no slacking. . Both have brutal kicks and age is on Rockholds side but getting into the octogan with Machida is a whole different ball game. He has thought the who's who of mma which should stand him in good stead.
This is a exciting match up and could go either way. 2 fighters i enjoy watching and id not put anyone off watching/recording as it's on in the early hrs sunday morning. All in all at the odds i have to back Machida
 
Cursed my opening fancy going on here. Machida out classed. A little unlucky as a slip put him down and Rockhold took full advantage hurt Machida and had him in alot of trouble in the 1st and made light work in the 2nd and finished by sub. Hope he gets a title shot as him and Weidman match up well and the odds will be interesting.
 
Next card UFC 186 Bisping the brit mainly a point scorer faces Dolloway who i think can take this. Gd wrestling + improving striking can take advantage of Bisping who looks 2 be on the down grade 11/8 the current odds
 
GRRR Dolloway let Bisping off in the 1st. Had him hurt and should of finished. Bisping come back and out worked CB in the 2nd/3rd to win by decision.
 
Main card started already in Manila ( Philippines)
Mark Munoz is a bet 6/4 fights the brit Luke Barnett who i dont like. Probable influenced my bet as Munoz is in poor form lost his last 3 but he has been fighting top notch competition and Luke really is not anywhere near that bracket. Munoz will look to use his power / wrestling to finish Luke. Luke has a reach advantage but i believe this to be Munoz last fight + on home soil he can take this if the motivation is still there.
1.5pts @6/4.
 
Munoz bet lands. Nice to get off the mark. Bit annoying as another fighter i like won on the card but i knew little about his opponent
All of 0.25pt profit since the start.
 
Will be backing Daniel Cormier to beat Johnson 4/5 is the current price. Big fight this for the light heavy weight title. Obviously Johnson will be a very dangerous fight as is on a high with serious KO power but DC probably cant believe his luck getting another chance for the title so soon. This time against Johnson as Jones got fired. DC will look to throw conbos and take AJ down. Not easy but i expect it to go this way and DC to grind out the win.
1pt win 4/5
 
Trinaldo v Parke tonight. Close fight but 2/1 for Trinaldo looks fair. I like Parke but Trinaldo is value and if going to the judges being in Brazil they could side with him. Parke if finishes usually it's a sub but Trinaldo has been in with Chiesa who is a better grappler/ sub fighter and he went the distance. This looks a close fight but 2/1 i'm on.
0.5pt win 2/1 Trinaldo
 
Another 50-50 fight Rothwell v Mitrone. 2 big hitters so i expect 1 to hit the canvass but just siding with Rothwell who is 1 tough man. Not as athletic as mitrone but very experienced and has the tools to take this.
1/2pt @ 7/4 is under estimating his chances.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGJQGbLjTCI The Rothwell jig after finishing overeem ( enjoy)
 
Werdum v Valasquez for the belt. Potential to go 5 rounds but Valasquez is a cardio machine and i'm with him getting the finish here even though Werdum has a ridiclious ground game and Cain is coming off a lay off but i can only see one outcome. Werdum is not getting any younger and he has met no one like this who will put relentless pressure on him. Cain has to be carful though if taking him down as he will be playing into werdum's hands.
0.5pt win under 2,5 rounds @ 2.1
1.5pt Valasquez to win in round 1-5 @ 4/6
 
Poor show from Cain had i known he had only been in Mexico 2 weeks to climatise/ get used to the altitude i may have swerved.
Wernt the real Cain valasquez tonight. Take nothing away from Werdum he looked superb. Would back Cain in the rematch if the odds are right but he def got a few things wrong on the night.
0.87pt profit
 
To busy of late to do much and whilst still watching the UFC not had chance to study. In Scotland tomorrow night and 1 bet i like is in the main event Bisping v Leites.
Leites is on a tear and confidence must be high. He has excellent sub skills and his striking has improved. Fans will be with Bisping here but looks a tough match up and
evens looks big in a fight id fancy Leites to win 70% of the time.

1.5pt win @1/1 bog
 
No good. Bisping with the better foot work did enough to win on pts. Boring fight and could of gone 10 rounds and neither would of got the finish.
-0.63pt.
Try and get on track soon. Part of the trouble is finding markets with more than a few bookies for the lesser fights still we will plod on
 
Barao v Dillashaw. The 2/1 for Barao looks fair if his weight cut has gone to plan. Obviously reports are he has struggled to make weight in the past and has to be taken into account. Dillashaw shocked most of us by beating Barao for the title and in truth he put on a clinic at times but if Barao has taken him more seriously this time and done things right in his camp he certainly aint a 2/1 shot. If memory serves he was a 1/12 or similar when they last met. The fight could go either way and no outcome would suprise me but Barao has power and is good on the ground and 2/1 is value.

1pt Barao @ 2/1
 
Outclassed again unfortuantly. Heard it took Barao twice after id backed him to make weight so def a concern going forward and can see him moving up. Trouble is his training partner is current champ. Dillashaw to quick and has a gas tank. Hope he meets Dom Cruz soon as similar styles.
-1.63pt
 
UFC in brazil and im struggling to find value but trying to find a angle in the Silver v Palelei fight and i think Paleli takes this. Silver having had to come off TRT i believe has looked sluggish and slow with 2 ko losses to boot and i see a ko for us. 8/11 not a fantastic price and i'm only playing 1 point as we aint getting rich on 8/11 shots
1pt 8/11 Palelei to ko Silver
 
Another looser. Silva got a 2nd round ko. Knew one or the other would go out but on the wrong 1 tonight
-2.63pt.
 
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