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Trying to get lucky - Part 2

hedgehog

hedgehog

Dam
markfinn markfinn asked about the exchanges for this type of betting and I am a new convert but that is what I use. I can see the terms of each way will actually get you mot for the place and on the exchanges the win each way part is usually higher than the separate win only market.

Because of this I've been noticing it is possible to bet each way then lay the win portion for a bet to nothing of about a point and still have the place part at better terms going for you.

As said I'm new to this approach

Personally I don't think the exchanges have enough liquidity at the longer odds to ever make this a viable sole income.

Has anybody any comments please?
 
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I would label myself a SOB type of backer in respect that while the avg price of the horses i back is 10/1 > i seldom deploy any place money. I do not use the exchanges so cannot comment but it would be interesting to know what Bookmakers actually think about EW wagers. We are all aware of there dislike for so called snide ew when there is a very short priced fav, but i wonder there thoughts in general.?

When we see these options of insure bet or reduced odds for more places etc has anyone actually worked out the mathematics and ascertained the value involved, i ask because i do not know.? I cannot justify my preference for staking 1pt win level stakes but would say that i find the whole process of finding a horse i wish to back a complex one, so keeping my staking simple best suits the mind if not always the wallet. :)
 
mick mick, I don't think the 3tbp or ew markets on the exchanges would have anything near the liquidity for your scale of betting other than for big meetings like Cheltenham or possibly just before the off.

I know Chesham Chesham has had software written that can give place odds from the win odds but I think it would be difficult to do otherwise as there is some pretty complex mathematics involved.

I go by the weakest stat and try to work out from that the likelihood of a place then multiply by 5 for the win as the place market is usually 20% of the win odds.

Thinking about my daily crust I'd have needed to bet about 5 times my place bet today to give me a chance of getting that and use the weekend bets as a cushion for the inevitable losses. I don't think I've the balls nor the bank to make that possible. Even if I had the bank I'm still shy on balls. The liquidity problems with the place markets wouldn't help either. It's still very early days and today could easily be a losing correction of my results so far but unless you have multiple bookie accounts I can't see how to make this work other than for a small income.

Thank you for responding, I'm hoping this thread will be an active one

Good luck today
 
hedgehog said:
I'm hoping this thread will be an active one
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interactivity is what forums are about - we could produce a list of horses every day with little or no info as to why they are prospects - there are couple of threads that do just that and are generally totally ignored - some may measure success in how many views a thread has ! better to measure it in how many interactions that's where the learning and improvement comes from.

Good luck with this new thread I know it will do well and provide interest.
 
Hi hedgehog hedgehog

Just retitle this Thread Headgehogs EW Longshots and ask dave58 dave58 to move your successful Posts on the Long Shot thread to here, along with the comments in response to your post . That will clear unwanted posts that Uncouth complained about, he did say he was happy when it was just him posting. Quote ” Quote “I was posting exclusively on my lonesome at the beginning and enjoyed it,” To be fair it will enable the rest of us to interact with you, as we are reluctant to post anything on the Uncouth Thread, but obviously want to interact with you.
well done with your recent success, I am well impressed.
 
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All the best with this hedgehog hedgehog.
For what it is worth my modus operandi with mostly shorter priced horses is for 25% win and 75% place.
 
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I second (well, probably 5th or more by now) the above hedgehog hedgehog, I certainly enjoy your EW selections posts and like the idea of being able to interact with yourself and others without worrying I'm causing offence.... my brain goes off topic quite readily I'm afraid!

Exchange betting isn't something I've spent a lot of time on - I started betting on the Betfair Exchange but find I'm happier on the Sportsbook, but I'd be more than happy to see a few examples of how the exchange pans out for place betting. You and O Outlander have even got me looking at highly rated longshots, I've managed 2 good picks from 6 today so doubt I'd be profitable given the inevitable day of losers, but it's an interesting starting point if I can tidy the plan up a bit.

Good luck with this new thread.
Dave
 
I rarely use the Betfair Sportsbook their prices are not that good but I think they still give you BOG. You will normally get much better prices on the Exchange, I usually like to bet within 10 minutes of post time but quite often have to take an earlier price. You can always put a higher bid in with the option of taking Betfair SP if not matched.
 
hedgehog hedgehog I am sure that you haven't put anyone's nose out of joint, most of us here know you as a valued and respected member of the forum, and I am sure we can all see where you are coming from.
If you do want anything changed feel free to ask - the thread title will take all of a couple of minutes so that's easy , if you want posts moving it's no problem but you'll have to bear with me as I will have to do them singly, so it will take a bit longer.
 
Very interesting thread hedgehog hedgehog .

I have always found the "How to bet each way" conundrum a difficult one to crack and still struggle with it but only because I like to make sure I am getting value on both the win and the place portion of the bet and experience tells me that it is almost impossible to get both.
When the bookies price up a race the front end of the market reflects more accurately the true chances of a given horse whereas the middle and back end of the book are nearly always priced too short and therefore any value offered in favour of the punter by the place terms is negated or worse by the complete lack of value on the win place part of the bet. Obviously if one works out what one thinks are the true chances of a horse and spots a rick in the bookies prices then backing each way (depending on the number of runners) offers a double bonus.
As a general rule I will consider and each way bet with the bookies if the field size is close to their terms and the horse is at the front of the market and certainly use the exchange at prices over 8/1 and put the place bet on the place market. Needless to say I don't look at a race and try to work out what the real chances of each horse are.
 
davejb said:
I second (well, probably 5th or more by now) the above hedgehog hedgehog, I certainly enjoy your EW selections posts and like the idea of being able to interact with yourself and others without worrying I'm causing offence.... my brain goes off topic quite readily I'm afraid!

Exchange betting isn't something I've spent a lot of time on - I started betting on the Betfair Exchange but find I'm happier on the Sportsbook, but I'd be more than happy to see a few examples of how the exchange pans out for place betting. You and O Outlander have even got me looking at highly rated longshots, I've managed 2 good picks from 6 today so doubt I'd be profitable given the inevitable day of losers, but it's an interesting starting point if I can tidy the plan up a bit.

Good luck with this new thread.
Dave
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This could be the ideal time to concentrate on outsiders and each way betting , I noticed about 2 weeks ago Paddy Power changed its MO regarding prices , they now track the exchange and the claim they have better prices on most horses, this is true but not ideal for most punters because in nearly every race you see the fancied horses shorter than the current official board prices , obviously they are doing this so they can’t get caught out by arbers, but the upside is they are bigger than the board prices on most of the big priced horses, so the value has increased for each way betting on outsiders compared to what is has been in the past, this is even better when they have big field handicaps on a Saturday and you can get sometimes first 7 places on outsiders at much bigger than the board prices in the 10 mins running up to the race, 25/1 shots at 35/1, 50/1 shots at 110/1, obviously this is because they are tracking the exchange and you can probably get even bigger on there, but at least it makes it more competitively priced on the outsider for those that use traditional bookies , you can also see other bookies knocking outsiders out to compete , so anyone who likesbetting bigger prices the gap between what’s on offer with the bookies and on the exchanges just got much smaller.
 
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Good for you hedgehog hedgehog both for the thread and for your recent wins - well played.

Must admit being a relatively recent convert to Betfair SP for bigger priced horses - either for straight win or 25/75 win and loaded place as suggested.

If you have multiple bookie and exchange accounts though it really does pay to shop around and put on win and place elements separately where you can to get best price and over 8/1 for the win as suggested is a good place to be looking for that.

You don't really need to keep big balances in each bookie as much now either with many using either Paypal or faster payment debit card schemes so many can go in and out much more at will (once the account has been fully verified etc).

Scraping every bit of value out of each race is a must as it goes some way to balancing out the long losing runs that are inevitable when fishing in the wider end of the market. That said there are plenty of plots and extreme conditions that can highlight good chances every single day.

All the best on your venture - and have to say I find the concept of one of the board nicest posters putting anyone's nose out of joint quite strange ;-)

Cheers
 
I've noticed that O Outlander, paddy power always seems bigger.

I also think it is a good idea for davejb davejb to look at the long priced horses. If his top 2 rated is independent of the odds it sounds like a winner.

Sorry if I didn't thank you earlier for all the positive comments by those that have posted. Please accept my thanks now
 
Yes Ferdy Ferdy I can still get BOG with Betfair sportsbook, this suits quite well as I usually place bets anything from 30 mins to 4 hrs before the start so can take a price that is sometimes better than SP, and get SP on those occasions it is worse. This works quite well, I'd say I'm benefiting from the deal pretty often. Also there's the option to increase the number of places - at the cost of reduced prices - for EW. That doesn't mean the exchange isn't worth looking at, especially for place betting, simply that for the most part I don't bet EW so haven't felt the need to go that route (yet).

hedgehog hedgehog - I agree with dave58 dave58 mate, nobody could take offence at your posts, your behaviour on this forum is/has been exemplary.
I have, of course, been editing things to produce a 'top 2 rated' listing to make the location of outsiders a bit quicker, it'll perhaps also help me figure out a method of filtering the number down a bit. Today's second such race, the 12.25 at Market Rasen, produced Levasseur (top rated) who ran second at 40/1 (about 14 l behind mind) - I had to check that they paid out on 2nd place in 5 horse races! Not many others came up though....
Dave
 
davejb davejb, 40/1 would be about 20% the place so 8/1 and the exchange would be bigger than the bookie odds so the place would be bigger. Potentially paying something like 10/1 which makes up for a lot of lost bets.

I look at handicaps as the odds are better and I also demand the horse has placed, 1 2 or 3, in one of it's last 3 runs. That's because I think the trainer has to have some hope of a good result.
 
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davejb said:
Yes Ferdy Ferdy I can still get BOG with Betfair sportsbook, this suits quite well as I usually place bets anything from 30 mins to 4 hrs before the start so can take a price that is sometimes better than SP, and get SP on those occasions it is worse. This works quite well, I'd say I'm benefiting from the deal pretty often. Also there's the option to increase the number of places - at the cost of reduced prices - for EW. That doesn't mean the exchange isn't worth looking at, especially for place betting, simply that for the most part I don't bet EW so haven't felt the need to go that route (yet).

hedgehog hedgehog - I agree with dave58 dave58 mate, nobody could take offence at your posts, your behaviour on this forum is/has been exemplary.
I have, of course, been editing things to produce a 'top 2 rated' listing to make the location of outsiders a bit quicker, it'll perhaps also help me figure out a method of filtering the number down a bit. Today's second such race, the 12.25 at Market Rasen, produced Levasseur (top rated) who ran second at 40/1 (about 14 l behind mind) - I had to check that they paid out on 2nd place in 5 horse races! Not many others came up though....
Dave
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my main day to day betting is in-running , the lavasseur race was fascinating in the place market, think it was matched at prices up to 990 for small stakes, got up on the line for a place, I wasnt one of the lucky ones who grabbed the huge odds unfortunately.
 
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