Trainer change systems
- Thread starter greyabbey
- Start date
markfinn
Sire
Just seen this thread - not something I have ever really looked at but very interesting and something that interests myself - going very well
markfinn
Sire
Watch the vid explains it better
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greyabbey
Colt
Thanks
markfinn - I enjoyed watching that. I think the difference with what I'm trying here is that I'm focusing on the horse characteristics rather than specific trainers. I've tested trainers who have done well with new recruits previously, but my worry is that even with stringent checks across different timeframes, it's largely backfitting, and that focusing on horse characteristics might be more profitable. I'm not persuaded that only specific yards do better with new recruits (although Mick Appleby might be an exception).
My sense from the data base on horse characteristics so far is as follows:
National hunt: some very basic metrics yield a profit. Focus on handicaps, changed yard recently, put in a simple odds forecast, and it's already very profitable.
Flat: some basic filters yields a profit. Trainers in form, younger horses (2 and 3), handicaps
All weather: trickier. The data doesn't perform too well with the ideas that I think would work. Generally a combination of yard in form, jockey who rides the track well, and an unexposed horse is profitable, but it looks a bit patchy year-on-year.
markfinn - I enjoyed watching that. I think the difference with what I'm trying here is that I'm focusing on the horse characteristics rather than specific trainers. I've tested trainers who have done well with new recruits previously, but my worry is that even with stringent checks across different timeframes, it's largely backfitting, and that focusing on horse characteristics might be more profitable. I'm not persuaded that only specific yards do better with new recruits (although Mick Appleby might be an exception).My sense from the data base on horse characteristics so far is as follows:
National hunt: some very basic metrics yield a profit. Focus on handicaps, changed yard recently, put in a simple odds forecast, and it's already very profitable.
Flat: some basic filters yields a profit. Trainers in form, younger horses (2 and 3), handicaps
All weather: trickier. The data doesn't perform too well with the ideas that I think would work. Generally a combination of yard in form, jockey who rides the track well, and an unexposed horse is profitable, but it looks a bit patchy year-on-year.
I like the idea of following well-bred horses that have changed yard and have come down the handicap prior to joining current yard with some good back-form. As long as the horse isn;t too old.
