• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
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    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
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    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
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    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
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  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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Trainer change systems

Caspian Queen third, and Taravara is beaten by a neck at 42BSP. Couple that with Petite Power from the other day and it's been pretty unlucky.

4/16
+29.99
 
Taravara in running hasn't popped up on Timeform yet, but Petite Power (15.78BSP) traded at 1.02 the other day...
 
Taravara traded at 1.14...

One today.
(SORRY: EDIT - Southwell), 14:40
Storm Dreamer
 
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markfinn

Sire
Hi all,

I like the idea of focusing on horses changing trainer. Geegeez covers the idea daily, HRB allows you to play around with different versions of the idea. But I don't think I've stumbled across the right system yet (maybe there isn't and it should be used as an angle combined with reading form or insider knowledge).

I'm happy to screenshot my various versions here, but I'm mainly interested to hear from others who like the idea. Do you think it's better to focus on certain horse characteristics (eg, a young/unexposed horse might benefit from a trainer change, or some other set of criteria) or on certain trainer characteristics (eg, a certain trainer does well with new recruits, like Mick Appleby).

Any thoughts welcome.
Just seen this thread - not something I have ever really looked at but very interesting and something that interests myself - going very well
 

markfinn

Sire
I had a quick look - set the parameters min of 2 winners and Min 25% success any type of AW racing 2017 on wards

1617894252887.png

just 2021 so far

1617894327919.png
 
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Thanks markfinn markfinn - I enjoyed watching that. I think the difference with what I'm trying here is that I'm focusing on the horse characteristics rather than specific trainers. I've tested trainers who have done well with new recruits previously, but my worry is that even with stringent checks across different timeframes, it's largely backfitting, and that focusing on horse characteristics might be more profitable. I'm not persuaded that only specific yards do better with new recruits (although Mick Appleby might be an exception).

My sense from the data base on horse characteristics so far is as follows:

National hunt: some very basic metrics yield a profit. Focus on handicaps, changed yard recently, put in a simple odds forecast, and it's already very profitable.
Flat: some basic filters yields a profit. Trainers in form, younger horses (2 and 3), handicaps
All weather: trickier. The data doesn't perform too well with the ideas that I think would work. Generally a combination of yard in form, jockey who rides the track well, and an unexposed horse is profitable, but it looks a bit patchy year-on-year.
 

mattyboy

Yearling
Hi all,

I like the idea of focusing on horses changing trainer. Geegeez covers the idea daily, HRB allows you to play around with different versions of the idea. But I don't think I've stumbled across the right system yet (maybe there isn't and it should be used as an angle combined with reading form or insider knowledge).

I'm happy to screenshot my various versions here, but I'm mainly interested to hear from others who like the idea. Do you think it's better to focus on certain horse characteristics (eg, a young/unexposed horse might benefit from a trainer change, or some other set of criteria) or on certain trainer characteristics (eg, a certain trainer does well with new recruits, like Mick Appleby).

Any thoughts welcome.
I like the idea of following well-bred horses that have changed yard and have come down the handicap prior to joining current yard with some good back-form. As long as the horse isn;t too old.
 
Bumper day today. One race has two qualifiers but I think at the prices the system offers I'm happy to have that occasionally.

REDCAR
14:50 A Boy Named Ivy
14:50 Freak Out

WINDSOR
14:10 Aish

HUNTINGDON
13:30 Night of Sin
 
Oh. Sorry. I put in the right race but the wrong horse! Zero To Hero is on a jumps system I'm doing and ran at Southwell.
Chichester was the horse, who just bolted up at 9.14...
I'll not include it just be completely legitimate.
 
Screenshot_20210413-181400-01.jpeg
Apologies. Hopefully not too much damage done. If you were backing the system, you'd have noticed beforehand and corrected me. :)
 
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