jdog
Yearling
Hello all,
Need some advice on how the odds move. Will try to be short & precise with my question as not sure how to phrase it.
So, a random scenario, I have identified a horse race market to trade on. I know three things, once I open my position my closing position will either be, 1. Same/No movement, 2. Above/Rise, 3. Below/Fall. After observation of the market I deduce that the odds will fall on the Fav from the current 2.9, down to 2-2.1 range.
I lay the horse at £10 @ 2.9 odds 5 minutes before the off, I know the price range the odds will end up at and that any rise in price from open to minute 3 is just inflation. I expect to exit in the last minute at odds of 2.1-2.3.
So now to the question, once I have opened the 2.9 Lay the odds rise up to 3.3 and then fall to expected range. As the price rises I lay again another £10 @ 3.1 odds, then again another £10 @ 3.25 odds, the odds fall down and then I green up for my profit.
What are my final Lay odds for the £30? If I remember correctly when I done this before once a while ago, my final lay price rose a bit but it was not the highest odds of the 3 bets. If what I remember is true then is there a way to workout or estimate this final lay odds? The point of trading (Not The Point if this triggers you) is to get the closest price to the top of the graph curve and then ride it down to the closest point before it swings the other way or the race starts, if I don't get in on the top is there a way to "get" those extra few ticks to the top to maximize the difference between opening and closing odds?
I hope this makes sense. Thanks for taking the time to help a brother out
Need some advice on how the odds move. Will try to be short & precise with my question as not sure how to phrase it.
So, a random scenario, I have identified a horse race market to trade on. I know three things, once I open my position my closing position will either be, 1. Same/No movement, 2. Above/Rise, 3. Below/Fall. After observation of the market I deduce that the odds will fall on the Fav from the current 2.9, down to 2-2.1 range.
I lay the horse at £10 @ 2.9 odds 5 minutes before the off, I know the price range the odds will end up at and that any rise in price from open to minute 3 is just inflation. I expect to exit in the last minute at odds of 2.1-2.3.
So now to the question, once I have opened the 2.9 Lay the odds rise up to 3.3 and then fall to expected range. As the price rises I lay again another £10 @ 3.1 odds, then again another £10 @ 3.25 odds, the odds fall down and then I green up for my profit.
What are my final Lay odds for the £30? If I remember correctly when I done this before once a while ago, my final lay price rose a bit but it was not the highest odds of the 3 bets. If what I remember is true then is there a way to workout or estimate this final lay odds? The point of trading (Not The Point if this triggers you) is to get the closest price to the top of the graph curve and then ride it down to the closest point before it swings the other way or the race starts, if I don't get in on the top is there a way to "get" those extra few ticks to the top to maximize the difference between opening and closing odds?
I hope this makes sense. Thanks for taking the time to help a brother out
