Tissues from Ratings
- Thread starter Jackform
- Start date
Alan...I know all this...You forgot our converversations elsewhere? Ill remind you of who I am via PM.
I feel I have little to contribute to this thread in future.
I feel I have little to contribute to this thread in future.
Jackform
Mare
nedloh, thanks for the update, my stats are 35 years out=of-date, a bit like myself. However, I will stick with the principles espoused by my guru,the professor, such as:
'Consistent earnings -our objective - come from analysing and weighing up the published factors better than the majority not from big fluke wins'.
'When you do bet it must be a value bet. once you have selected the likely winner it is essential to assign your own price to it (I, of course calculate odds from ratings as described) the true odds the horse should be placed at in your opinion'.
'Do not bet on odds lower than 6/4 against as history proves there is no way you can win over the long term - your percentage of winners needs to be too high'.
Pulsnatrix, you never said and here's me trying to conduct a mini-masterclass (the wife does say I am a B knowall, which is a bit harsh from such a close relative). Perhaps like you I will give up on this thread as it is not moving me forward helping to improve my selection technique.
With regard to the Mus 3.40 yesterday your analysis was better than mine, although I knew looking at my chart Ifandbutwhynot coming from Cheltenham/Sandown to this level on a track where weight is not such a leveller and my top rating was a shoe in. The connections did not seem to go for it but I suspect they are going for 'glory not gain' at the Cheltenham Festival possibly the County Hurdle, so just a prep race. On the other hand, Roman Flight coming from carrying 9st on the AW and PU the race before that should not have been considered, hindsight is a grand thing.
'Consistent earnings -our objective - come from analysing and weighing up the published factors better than the majority not from big fluke wins'.
'When you do bet it must be a value bet. once you have selected the likely winner it is essential to assign your own price to it (I, of course calculate odds from ratings as described) the true odds the horse should be placed at in your opinion'.
'Do not bet on odds lower than 6/4 against as history proves there is no way you can win over the long term - your percentage of winners needs to be too high'.
Pulsnatrix, you never said and here's me trying to conduct a mini-masterclass (the wife does say I am a B knowall, which is a bit harsh from such a close relative). Perhaps like you I will give up on this thread as it is not moving me forward helping to improve my selection technique.
With regard to the Mus 3.40 yesterday your analysis was better than mine, although I knew looking at my chart Ifandbutwhynot coming from Cheltenham/Sandown to this level on a track where weight is not such a leveller and my top rating was a shoe in. The connections did not seem to go for it but I suspect they are going for 'glory not gain' at the Cheltenham Festival possibly the County Hurdle, so just a prep race. On the other hand, Roman Flight coming from carrying 9st on the AW and PU the race before that should not have been considered, hindsight is a grand thing.
Jackform
Mare
Just one last parting shot on this thread, I'm a sucker for punishment.
Kelso 2.10 by my ratings
1. 8 10/1 (19.5 Betform 09.55) (Richards/Richards 3rd best combo)
2. 9 8/1 (32) (Parker/Hamilton best combo_
3. 9 8/1 (4.8) Blenheim Brook ticks most boxes but at a lower level than others today.
4. 18 11/4 (3.95) Rolecarr C&D winner LTO - a mudlark, should go well (Hamilton/Slatter 2nd best combo)
5. 4 50/1 (29)
6. non-runner
7. 6 18/1 (7)
8. 9 8/1 (8.4) G?
9. 16 10/3 (4.7) Or De Grugy 2nd behind Rolecarr goes well here capable of reversing places.
Kelso uphill run in of about a furlong so stamina required today on the going.
Timeform goes 9, 4, 3
Betfair market 09.55 indicates winner from 4, 9, 3, 7
Jackform ratings go 4, 9
What do I think? Amateur riders of course but it looks like a match on paper between Rolecarr, Or De Grugy. The latter has some weight advantage today and hopefully the jock womn't drop his whip near the finish. Rolecarr, depending on how the market goes from now on in.
If anyone would like a race of their choosing rated as above for comparison just PM me with a fair bit of notice, and after that it is aurevoir from me on this thread.
Kelso 2.10 by my ratings
1. 8 10/1 (19.5 Betform 09.55) (Richards/Richards 3rd best combo)
2. 9 8/1 (32) (Parker/Hamilton best combo_
3. 9 8/1 (4.8) Blenheim Brook ticks most boxes but at a lower level than others today.
4. 18 11/4 (3.95) Rolecarr C&D winner LTO - a mudlark, should go well (Hamilton/Slatter 2nd best combo)
5. 4 50/1 (29)
6. non-runner
7. 6 18/1 (7)
8. 9 8/1 (8.4) G?
9. 16 10/3 (4.7) Or De Grugy 2nd behind Rolecarr goes well here capable of reversing places.
Kelso uphill run in of about a furlong so stamina required today on the going.
Timeform goes 9, 4, 3
Betfair market 09.55 indicates winner from 4, 9, 3, 7
Jackform ratings go 4, 9
What do I think? Amateur riders of course but it looks like a match on paper between Rolecarr, Or De Grugy. The latter has some weight advantage today and hopefully the jock womn't drop his whip near the finish. Rolecarr, depending on how the market goes from now on in.
If anyone would like a race of their choosing rated as above for comparison just PM me with a fair bit of notice, and after that it is aurevoir from me on this thread.
Jackform
Mare
I posted the above quote when last on this thread 2013 and it's originally from Professor Frank George's 1978 book, 'A Better Bet' - and I do agree with it. I have 'assigned' my own form odds to two of the better class races at Goodwood, although a couple have been withdrawn since I started so connections may be concerned about the weather conditions? I have moved on over the years from using this approach as it's just too mmuch about numbers really.
Goodwood (S scattered showers) A Balding top track trainer.
3.35 Early market 9.10 expected no's* 4, 2, 3, 6 indicating an open contest.
1. 16/1 (mkt) (4/1 my form odds) the market indicates the connections have no faith in it?
2*. 3/1 (3/1) Aimeric - R Varian 21% past month. My selection if it does not shorten.
3*. 10/3 (6/1)
4*. 5/2 (4/1)
6*. 7/2 (4/1) (A Balding/O Murphy)
4.45 Early market 9.15 expected no's* 3, 6 indicating a win restricted to these.
2. 11/2 (mkt) (3/1 my form odds) Escobar. My selection.
3*. 9/4 (4/1)
4. 6/1 (9/2) (J Osborne has the best recent form on paper?)
5. 5/1 (6/1)
6*. 9/4 (4/1) (A balding/O Murphy)