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Three countries. Three Derbies. One trainer. Aidan O’Brien.

Dave

Gelding
Three countries. Three Derbies. One trainer. Aidan O’Brien won the French Derby with Constitution River at Chantilly on the 31st of May, the English Derby with Christmas Day at Epsom on the 7th of June, and the Irish Derby with Benvenuto Cellini at the Curragh on the 28th of June. Three different horses, three different tracks, four weeks apart. Whether or not a trainer has achieved this in a single season before is a question racing historians will settle, but the sectional data from the Curragh meeting puts some specific analytical flesh on those bare bones and the most interesting story it tells is not about the horse that won the Irish Derby, but about the horse that came second.
Before the horses, a word on the data. The Irish Derby Festival ran on Good to Good to Firm ground across all three days, with significantly more Good ground than the Royal Ascot meeting that preceded it by five days. At Ascot the Going Inflation Warning was active throughout: sustained Firm and Good to Firm conditions meant that negative Vs.Par became the baseline for virtually every race, stripping it of its discriminatory power and forcing us to lean on TI Diff as the primary quality signal. At the Curragh that problem does not arise. The ground was genuinely honest — softer, more varied, closer to the historical par against which the timing benchmarks are set. The average DA-VsPar across the fifteen races at the Festival was -1.79, the Vs.Par figures retain their full meaning, and where the Irish Derby itself classified as True Pace, the FSP readings from that race are the most analytically bankable form evidence produced at either meeting.

The Going Inflation Warning is not active for this analysis. The sectionals can be taken at face value.

Race of the Meeting — Irish Derby (Group 1, 1m 4f, 28 June 2026)
The Irish Derby is the obvious choice and the data confirms it. TI Diff +1.20, DA-VsPar -2.74 on Good ground, True Pace confirmed at +0.24 seconds acceleration across the race. Field average FSP of 104.0%. These are among the cleanest numbers in this entire analytical series.
Benvenuto Cellini won by holding fifth position from the first furlong through the middle stages — Diff still 1.26 seconds at the halfway point — before a sustained nine-furlong compression that brought him to the front at the eleventh furlong and held there to the line. Robert Moore for Aidan O’Brien. FSP 104.94%, the highest of the three runners captured in the data. The win is genuine in every sense: True Pace, STANDARD quality, full FSP weight.
But Christmas Day is the more interesting subject.
The English Derby winner was ridden by Ronan Whelan and tracked from third position throughout, his Diff at 0.19 seconds from the second furlong and consistent to 0.06 seconds at the eleventh — briefly ahead before being headed. FSP 103.0%. He was beaten by a stablemate on a track that suits Irish-trained horses at this trip on Good ground rather better than Epsom suits British visitors on faster going. The sectionals say Christmas Day ran his race. His Diff was still compressing at F11 — 0.14 seconds at F10, 0.06 seconds at F11, 0.26 seconds at F12 where he was headed and beaten into second. There is nothing in those numbers that suggests a horse out of form. There is everything in those numbers that suggests the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, over the same mile and a half on Good to Firm in late July, sets up as an entirely different proposition for him.
Pierre Bonnard (Wayne Lordan, O’Brien, 10-1) produced FSP of 104.05% in third — a performance whose quality is understated by the finishing position. Three O’Brien horses filling the first three places in the Irish Derby, with the English Derby winner second.

Must Follow
Benvenuto Cellini (IRE) — A P O’Brien / R L Moore
Curragh, 28 June 2026 | 1m 4f Group 1 | Good | 1st | SP 2.75
FSP: 104.94% | DA-VsPar: -2.74 | TI Diff: +1.20 | Top Speed: 39.44mph | Pace: True Pace
The Irish Derby winner, fully validated by pace, race quality, and Diff sequence. The sustained nine-furlong hold-up — Diff compressing from 1.26 seconds at F6 to 0.00 at F12 — is the sectional signature of a horse who stays well and conserves energy efficiently through the middle stages. The King George is the natural next target and the form reference is secure.
Ideal future setup: 1m 4f–1m 6f | Galloping track | Good to Good to Firm | Genuine pace | O’Brien will aim high.

Christmas Day (IRE) — A P O’Brien / Ronan Whelan
Curragh, 28 June 2026 | 1m 4f Group 1 | Good | 2nd | SP 5.0
FSP: 103.0% | DA-VsPar: -2.74 | TI Diff: +1.20 | Top Speed: 40.17mph | Pace: True Pace
The English Derby winner ran his race. A Diff of 0.06 seconds at the eleventh furlong — briefly ahead, then headed by a stablemate — tells you this horse arrived at the front at the right moment but was beaten by a horse that had conserved more through the back straight. No form concern. When he returns to a British galloping track on Good to Firm for the King George, the Irish Derby form is a reference point rather than a question mark. The sectionals say he retains every bit of the ability that won at Epsom.
Ideal future setup: 1m 4f | King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes, Ascot | Good to Firm | Galloping track | O’Brien/Whelan.

Alpha (IRE) — A P O’Brien / R L Moore
Curragh, 28 June 2026 | 7f Maiden | Good | 1st | SP 1.73
FSP: 106.59% | DA-VsPar: -3.35 | TI Diff: +0.90 | Top Speed: 41.54mph | Pace: Solo front-runner
The highest FSP of any juvenile at the Festival and the highest Top Speed recorded across any two-year-old race in the data at 41.54mph. Alpha led from the first furlong to the last — Diff 0.00 at every single furlong — and won a seven-furlong maiden in dominant fashion. O’Brien with Robert Lee Moore at 1.73. DA-VsPar -3.35 is an outstanding figure for a maiden at this trip. The solo pacemaking role and small field limit the analytical certainty but the absolute numbers — top speed and DA-VsPar — are exceptional for the grade. A future Group performer.
Ideal future setup: 6f–7f | Good to Good to Firm | Group 2 or Group 3 company | O’Brien will target accordingly.

One to Watch
Pierre Bonnard (IRE) — A P O’Brien / Wayne Lordan
Curragh, 28 June 2026 | 1m 4f Group 1 | Good | 3rd | SP 10.0
FSP: 104.05% | DA-VsPar: -2.74 | TI Diff: +1.20 | Top Speed: 39.84mph | Pace: True Pace
Third in the Irish Derby with the second-highest FSP in the race in a True Pace Group 1. The FSP spread between winner and third is 0.89 percentage points across a twelve-furlong race — an extraordinarily compressed top three that confirms this was a race of fine margins rather than large ability differences. Wayne Lordan for O’Brien. Future Pattern company at this trip.
Ideal future setup: 1m 4f–1m 6f | Galloping track | Good | O’Brien target race.

Purview — D K Weld / Colin Keane
Curragh, 28 June 2026 | 1m 2f Group 3 | Good | 1st | SP 2.0
FSP: 110.3% (Slowly Run — excluded as primary evidence) | DA-VsPar: -2.99 | TI Diff: +1.30 | Top Speed: 42.34mph
The Group 3 International Stakes produced the highest field average FSP of any race at the Festival — 110.4% — in a STANDARD quality race. FSP readings are excluded because the race classified as Slowly Run, but the absolute quality context (DA-VsPar -2.99, TI Diff +1.30 on Good ground) is genuine. Purview won well for Dermot Weld with Colin Keane and the field she beat included horses whose positional evidence in a STANDARD quality race is analytically significant. Weld placing a four-year-old mare in a Group 3 at the Irish Derby Festival with Keane on board is a considered targeting decision. Pattern company next.
Ideal future setup: 1m 2f | Good | Group 2 or Listed | Weld/Keane — watch declarations.

In My Teens (IRE) — G P Cromwell / Gary Carroll
Curragh, 28 June 2026 | 1m 4f Handicap | Good | 1st | SP 10.0
FSP: 107.5% | DA-VsPar: -2.59 | TI Diff: +0.60 | Top Speed: 40.04mph | Pace: True Pace
The only handicap winner in this analysis to benefit from full FSP weight — True Pace confirmed. DA-VsPar -2.59 confirms the race ran significantly faster than 1m4f par on Good ground. FSP 107.5% in a True Pace STANDARD quality handicap at the Irish Derby Festival is the sectional profile of a horse who has significantly more ability than a handicap mark suggests. Gary Carroll for G P Cromwell at 10-1. Hold-up horse who closed from eighth at the halfway point. A big performance from a less prominent combination — worth following at 1m4f on Good ground wherever Cromwell targets next.
Ideal future setup: 1m 4f | Good | Handicap company initially, Pattern possible | Cromwell/Carroll — watch declarations.

Wyman (IRE) — Mrs J Harrington / Shane Foley
Curragh, 26 June 2026 | 1m 2f Maiden | Good to Firm | 1st | SP 13.0
FSP: 102.3% (Slowly Run — excluded) | DA-VsPar: -1.35 | TI Diff: +1.20 | Top Speed: 39.32mph
Won a STANDARD quality maiden from seventh position at the halfway point — a hold-up winner in a Slowly Run race on Good to Firm. The FSP is excluded but the quality context (TI Diff +1.20, DA-VsPar -1.35) is genuine. Jessica Harrington with Shane Foley at 13-1. A three-year-old winning from off the pace in a good maiden at the Irish Derby Festival is one for the notebook. 1m2f–1m4f on Good to Firm is the natural direction.
Ideal future setup: 1m 2f–1m 4f | Good to Firm | Harrington/Foley — progressive 3YO.

Sectional Sleepers
Hotazhell — Mrs J Harrington / Shane Foley
Curragh, 28 June 2026 | 1m 2f Group 3 | Good | 3rd | SP 1.0
FSP: 111.24% (Slowly Run — excluded) | DA-VsPar: -2.99 | TI Diff: +1.30
The 1-1 favourite in the Group 3 International Stakes, finished third with the highest FSP in the race at 111.24% and a MaxGap of +2. Slowly Run classification means the FSP is excluded as primary evidence, but the positional data from a STANDARD quality race on Good ground is analytically significant. Harrington and Shane Foley came to win this race — the 1-1 price confirms that — and the sectionals confirm the ability is there. When Hotazhell next runs in a genuinely-paced 1m2f race, the International Stakes evidence becomes corroborating rather than primary.
Ideal future setup: 1m 2f | Good | Genuine pace — Slowly Run pace scenario in the International Stakes distorted the result | Harrington/Foley rebook = act.

Thundering On — J P O’Brien / Dylan Browne McMonagle
Curragh, 27 June 2026 | 1m 2f Group 1 | Good to Firm | 4th | SP 2.1
FSP: 103.24% (Slowly Run — excluded) | DA-VsPar: -1.98 | TI Diff: +3.70
Fourth at 2.1 in the Day 2 Group 1 with a MaxGap of +3 in what was classified as a Slowly Run race. The TI Diff of +3.70 looks exceptional but requires context: the Day 2 meeting average was only 4.7 — considerably below the Day 3 average of 7.9 — meaning the card itself was slow and the Group 1 beat a weak baseline rather than a strong one. In absolute terms, the Day 2 Group 1 (TI 8.4) ran slower than the Irish Derby (TI 9.1). J P O’Brien’s colt has the positional evidence but the quality context is less compelling than it appears. Confirmation in a genuinely-run 1m2f race will clarify.
Ideal future setup: 1m 2f | Good to Firm | Genuinely-run pace | O’Brien/McMonagle — watch next run.

Thyer — Maurice Ahern / Leigh Roche
Curragh, 26 June 2026 | 1m Handicap | Good | 6th | SP 17.0
FSP: 104.85% (Slowly Run — excluded) | DA-VsPar: -1.16 | TI Diff: +0.70
Sixth from last in a STANDARD quality handicap with the highest FSP in the race at 104.85% and a MaxGap of +5. Leigh Roche for Maurice Ahern at 17-1. The Slowly Run classification limits the evidential weight but the MaxGap from the deepest position in the field — 18th at the halfway mark — is significant in a race of this quality. In a genuinely-run 1m race on Good ground, Thyer’s hold-up profile is dangerous.
Ideal future setup: 1m | Good | Genuinely-run pace | Smaller field | Maurice Ahern/Roche or senior jockey rebook.

All sectional data sourced from RaceIQ. FSP (Finishing Speed Percentage) measures a horse’s closing speed relative to its overall race average — figures above 100% indicate a horse finishing faster than it raced through the body of the race. DA-VsPar measures the race time against the established par for the course and distance, adjusted for trip length. TI Diff measures the race time against the meeting average on the day. Pace classification is derived from furlong-by-furlong split time analysis — FSP readings are only presented as primary evidence in True Pace races. MaxGap equals finishing position minus FSP sectional rank within the field.

Many of the concepts underpinning this analysis are explored in greater depth in my book, UK All Weather Racing: A Specialist Guide to Finding Value on the All Weather. UK All-Weather Racing: A Specialist's Guide to Finding Value on the AW: Amazon.co.uk: Watts, Dave: 9798242338234: Books

I have a colour coded spreadsheet containing the Horses To Follow from this Article which makes adding the Horses to a tracker much easier. If you are interested in a copy of this Hiddenperformances irishderbyfestival tracker then email me on HiddenPerformances50@gmail.com and mention that you would like a copy sending to you and I will email one over.
 
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