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This Punting Life

trecelyn

trecelyn

Filly
Never do well over the jumps, looking forward to the flat. As I get older and possibly wiser I tend to focus on the price rather than the number of winners. Have had a look at at Lingfield tomorrow

2.45 David’s Gift I think a mark of 48 for her handicap debut could be a bit lenient especially at the odds of 10-1. The form of her last 2 races is starting to provide winners and could well be under estimated here

3.15 Postegal rarely do I go with the girls but here we go again. The form of the favourite is there for all to see but the odds are so skinny. All the horses that finished in front of Postergal’s in her first race have won next time out. She is at the break point in that race, either she is with the also rans or she is part of the form of the race. Saffie Osbourne rides this course well and is an interesting booking for the stable. Was hoping for a little better than 9-1 currently on offer but I will take it.
 
Onto Wolverhampton

7.00 The favourite obviously but I have a feeling Speriamo could well outrun her odds of 8-1, just based on the form of her previous races looking stronger than a lot of her rivals.

8.00 Gavi Di Gavi the form of his 2nd last run at Lingfield is starting to work out and with his previous course form a bonus I will take the 4-1 on offer
 
Complete bust today, would have had me pulling my hair out and looking for a new method of selection in my earlier years but as the majority of my selections nowadays are not at the front of the market losing runs are inevitable. Having looked at tomorrow there are 2 that catch the eye but the odds are too skinny on the one so I’m left with Amazing Anaya (W8.30) currently trading at 10-1. Winner LTO and is racing off bottom weight off a mark lower than her highest winning OR. Stable are in a good run of form at moment.
 
I had both those horses (Speriamo & Gavi Di Gavi), for my sins.

Masqool 17/2 @ Lingfield today (29/03/23) @ 17:00 - has done well for me in the past, not run as well for the last few, but is capable.

Oisin Murphy & William Buick @ Kempton tonight, they could get 2/3 between them, but I quite like to have punts on the novice stakes races. 49% of novice stakes are won by the favourite, but if not the favourite, it can be something with big odds, and I think Hector Crouch is good for big odds suprises.......

Hector Crouch is on Superluminal 66/1 @ 18:00 Kempton today.

Also, given his form this year, Daniel Muscutt is on Cue's Beau 50/1 in the same race, I might have a punt on that instead.
 
Couple of nice priced ones for tomorrow
Wolv 6.00 Werenotreallyhere 12-1 I can forgive his last run after a 98 day break but there is the worry that he is coming off a 66 day break this time. I am pinning my hopes to the 2nd he achieved over this C&D a race which has produced a couple of winners

Wolv 6.30 Always Fearless 8-1 another who I have to forgive a poor run LTO but the form of the previous race looks solid, given a break and is now dropping in trip, possibly needs a couple of pounds off but don’t want to possibly risk missing out here so having a bet
 
Thanks mlmrob, I was happy with that. Daniel Muscutt on Cue's Beau 50/1 was even better, 1 length 2nd SP 100/1.

Trecelyn, I'll join you on those horses today and have an E/W double.

I do quite like Tennessee Dream 13/2 @ 18:00 (Hills & Shoemark), who also have the 1/1 favourite in the next race, so I don't think I can resist that double either.

Bascinet can run well 4/1 @ 17:30
Same with Motawaafeq 13/2 @ 18:30
And Evolicatt 13/2 @ 19:30

But the latter two can have poor runs as well, and I hit yesterday, so I'm probably more unlikely to hit today 🙄
 
Close but no cigar. Selections for tomorrow are nearer the front of the market, not by choice my method has not changed that’s just the way it is.

S2.40 Easter Icon 7-1 opening mark of 60 was beyond him now dropped to 52 plus a 3lb claimer up is probably his best chance to date.

S4.50 First Charge 7-2 the form of his second last race is starting to work out and I’m hoping the 4lb raise fir his latest run is not enough to stop him here

S4.50 Forge Valley Lad 5-1 is an obvious form choice and I expected him to be a bit shorter in the betting.

N8.20 One Hart 9-2 C&D form and has performed at a higher level than this previously
 
2nd half of my Hills and Shoemark double won, otherwise, not very good yesterday.

For today, I quite like Toplight 9/1 @ 14:25 Lingfield, decent form of late and beat Autumn Flight last time out, and Autumn Flight is 7/1, yes it has 3lb on Toplight now but I can't see it reversing the form.

I always back Hooves Like Jagger, simply because I love the name, but he's done quite well for me and is 13/2 @ 16:05 Lingfield, although, he has to beat Sausalito which is in banging form, but is carrying a lot of weight.

Inexplicable 13/2 @ 15:50 Southwell, done well for me in the past and I'm loyal, too loyal sometimes.

High Security 22/1 @ 18:20 Newcastle could be worth a punt.

And then there's Mukha Magic, one of my favourite flat horses, and at 11/1 @ 16:50 Southwell, I'll have to jump on it and go against First Charge here, but good luck.

I'll definitely be joining you on Forge Valley Lad though, just worried about Citizen General.

What about the 19:50 @ Newcastle? One of those races with a naff favourite, I think, and how Satin Snake is 8/1 I don't know, surely it's overpriced.
 
Feel like I’m getting closer, on to tomorrow

Donc 3.35 Atrium 10-1 going, track, big fields, distance
Kemp 2.05 Belloccio 7-1 I have plenty of time for the trainer he seldom misses some sort of reward for a race he targets
Kemp 3.15 Bandinelli 5-1 Buick /Appleby with a horse that won this race last year
Kemp 5.00 Bizarre Law, 6-1 solid course form off a mark I don’t think is beyond him
 
Really fancied the Menuisier horse today, I have followed him for a while now but it wasn’t to be, good to see the stable taking the Lincoln, I did look but didn’t think today was the day. C’est la vie
 
Donc 2.10 There’s The Door 11-1 if the extra furlong is within her range his 2nd at Newmarket puts her bang in here
Donc 3.50 First Officer 11-2 the going is right up his street,
Donc 4.30 Ascot Adventure 11-2 now with David O’Meara back below his last winning mark
 
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Strike rate still low but improving

South 6.30 All In The Hips 7-1 possibly didn’t’ stay the 7F LTO jockey’s strike rate with trainer over last 12 months is
almost 30%

South 8.30 One More Dream 3-1 looks to have a solid chance here, the jockey on board today is an ex champion pony rider tipped for the top has a 33% strike rate for the stable
 
Where do you get jockey strike rate for specific trainers from? Do you know what Buick's strike rate riding for George Boughey over the last 12 months is? I'm thinking that race is Murphy v Buick, ha, so probably the Muscutt favourite wins 😆

I'm having One More Dream too, I can't resist a 'dream' trixie today.....

  • A Day To Dream 7/1 15:15 @ Thirsk
  • Dreams Delivered 6/1 19:30 @ Southwell
  • One More Dream 3/1 20:30 @ Southwell

Good luck
 
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