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The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune - "From Start to Finish", "Entering the Straight"

DuckandDive DuckandDive your above examples one of my beefs. If VDW was dutching to obtain his 85% > S/r why not make this clear from the outset. ? Re observing odds discipline it can prove frustrating and i could give plenty of examples when doing so has cost me but these are the ones we tend to remember instead of the more frequent occasions when doing so has enabled swerving a poor value loser.
 
JennyK JennyK your above an interesting and well reasoned post. When the first VDW letters where published i was in regular contact with Tony Peach concerning another matter but during a phone conversation he asked for my take on VDW. He said that his office peers had advised not getting involved because they felt the claimed results where not possible and he mentioned Ken Hussey who was producing the speed figs as one.

I said ask VDW to phone you with his next ten selections pre race and this will sort it, i have no idea if Tony made this request. My take on Tony being he was a genuine decent bloke also a good journalist but with limited knowledge of betting, and while i am reluctant to speak ill of the departed i do wonder if he was had over by VDW. ?
 
”And I know, if I’ll only be true, to this glorious quest, that my heart, will lie peaceful and still, when I’m laid to my rest.”

I’d like to propose the above be adopted as the VDW motto, and the following song from where it’s taken as the VDW theme tune. 🤣

 
After reading all of the posts i sat and thought for minute what is this all trying to tell us and i am going to take a leaf out of micks book and talk about people instead of horses in pacific.
B.E.S.T. thats the word that came to mind who usually wins the 100metres the best, who wins wimbledon usually the best, who wins motor racing titles usually the best, who wins world boxing titles usually the best,who wins world darts finals usually the best,who wins world snooker titles usually the best, who wins premier leagues usually the best.
So there is a pattern that the best win the best tournaments.
So now i can see why he thinks the best races will be won with the best horses and by the best trainers more likely with the best jockeys.
Now looking at what he thought these horses will likely have the best normal form hence good figures like 111 /112/121/ and so fourth.
Then looking at the conditions of todays race will have best form on todays going, best form on todays class,best form on todays distance and once has all these bests, might add in lately its best time, its best rating lately.
Now we have to look at value in differant way as alot of these horses and exspecially in none handicaps will be very short and more than likely this is where he got his great percentage in none handicaps.
For value would almost certainly need to move to handicapps where we all know the race is tighter infact nearly every aspect i have mentioned is tighter but it doesnt mean that following top races there is still one thats best in all instances although harder to notice but will give decent bet at value if found.
 
Pitmatic said:
Also found this post by Lee in my archive.......

"Weight and Desert Hero
People continue to ask many questions on all aspects of VDW because presumably there are parts of the method that they don’t understand (and none of us ever will, fully)? They are asking questions but at the same time refuse to use the basic tools that he gave to assess class, which in turn leads you to the final answers on form.
Click to expand...
I stumbled across this same post of Lee’s in the archive the other day, reposted by walter walter Pidgeon and it’s what made me have another go at the VDW tables again after all those years.

In addition, it’s been niggling away at me that after I’d been quite disparaging of the AR, Chesham Chesham tried to show me that it does help trap the winner.

Having posted four tables, three of them indicated the winner. (I only backed one.)
 
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mick mick

My view of Tony Peach is the same as yours - I don't doubt his honesty at all and your suggestion would indeed have sorted it out. And of course there was no need for the selections to have been put into the SCHB, just proofed to Mr Peach. If he had said he had had proof and the results were consistent with VDW's claims, I am sure that most of the SCHB readers and those of us who know VDW's work via Mr Peach's booklets would accept that.

What Mr Peach wrote that is pertinent to the point, especially the penultimate paragraph, is altogether unconvincing (Page 7 of "Racing In My System"). With newspaper tipsters (presumably some having some access to privileged information) rarely getting strike rates of naps above the 20%s and few showing a profit over a season, when he read that "32 bets of which 29 won" claim, followed a few months later by "the method I gave produces 85% to 90% winners", surely it must have raised a question mark in Mr Peach's mind? If one wanted to criticise, one could argue that Mr Peach and the SCHB had a duty to their readers not to publish seemingly extravagant unproven claims. Either Mr Peach didn't ask BDW for proof, or he did but VDW declined. Either way, there are unanswered questions.

One point I meant to put in my previous post, which I know has been remarked by others, is the dissonance between the claims and the second published letter from VDW (item 7 of "The Golden Years"). Quite apart from the adventurous staking plan he suggests, he said he viewed such plans not to enhance profits "but to SHOW a profit" (his capitalisation). With anything like the strike rate he claimed, a profit would quickly show itself at level stakes, never mind essentially a losses recovery staking plan.
 
Since Friday i have been running my consistency thread which is a part take on VDW, using Consistency, Weight, Or, Lto placing.
There have been 11 bets 3 which should not have been struck due to them failing on 1 of the criteria, i have won 6 out of 8 races with a pft of 14.48.
the 2 losers came 2nd and watching the races they were too far back and struggled to get to the winner.
 

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mick said:
DuckandDive DuckandDive your above examples one of my beefs. If VDW was dutching to obtain his 85% > S/r why not make this clear from the outset. ? Re observing odds discipline it can prove frustrating and i could give plenty of examples when doing so has cost me but these are the ones we tend to remember instead of the more frequent occasions when doing so has enabled swerving a poor value loser.
Click to expand...

Also, the inference of not trying to find the winner of a race, but the range where the winner is likely to be found. ie: Trapping

I would speculate, that it would have been tempting to dutch 2 or 3 if they were trapped within the winners range. A winner can be claimed/published and the strike rate remains high. (but details not published of all bets). This might also explain why there was confusion in a race with some finding different qualifiers. (I'm up to Page 19 of 854 of The Ghosts of Gummy thread)....
 
JennyK JennyK The " 32 bets of which 29 won " was the hook for many including myself especially so because plenty of his examples where decent priced winners. I wanted it to be true as it was inspirational. Part of me still does but i long ago accepted that no matter how much effort i put into attempting to understand his method this would not be so for myself.

As i recall he also inferred that followers could achieve simular which increased the frustration when this did not occur. Those two above numbers are probably the reason why he leaves a negative legacy on balance which is a shame.
 
gerry said:
Now we have to look at value in differant way as alot of these horses and exspecially in none handicaps will be very short and more than likely this is where he got his great percentage in none handicaps.
For value would almost certainly need to move to handicapps where we all know the race is tighter infact nearly every aspect i have mentioned is tighter but it doesnt mean that following top races there is still one thats best in all instances although harder to notice but will give decent bet at value if found.
Click to expand...
I recently read Enemy Number One, by Patrick Veitch. He said he doesn’t like using the word Value. Rather, he prefers Underrated.

If the odds ascribed to the favourite are 1/2, but you think it has a 75% chance of winning, then the horse is underrated by the bookmaker and there is value in this seemingly short price. If three bets win out of four, you have a profit of 0.5pt.

Of course, the trick is trying to decide which 1/2 bets are in the 75% category, but that’s the same problem whether the horses you look at at are 1/2 or 5/1. I.e. Which ones are underrated, which ones are overrated, and what the correct price should be about the selection.

It’s a puzzle I am still wrestling with.
 
BC BC I agree your above and am very willing to accept that perceived value can also be found in odds on chances. The way i work i have no interest in the odds until i find a horse i feel very interested in backing. If it then transpires that the market rates it a 12/1 chance then my take is that i have not been looking for value but rather it has found me. :)
 
mick said:
As i recall he also inferred that followers could achieve simular which increased the frustration when this did not occur. Those two above numbers are probably the reason why he leaves a negative legacy on balance which is a shame.
Click to expand...

When the disciples marvelled at Jesus’ miracles, he told them that they would do the same and even greater things.

It didn’t happen and the only “signs and wonders” being performed are by charlatans like Benny Hinn and co.

Are we in the cult of VDW, do you think? 😳🤭
 
Kraldrew said:
Since Friday i have been running my consistency thread which is a part take on VDW, using Consistency, Weight, Or, Lto placing.
There have been 11 bets 3 which should not have been struck due to them failing on 1 of the criteria, i have won 6 out of 8 races with a pft of 14.48.
the 2 losers came 2nd and watching the races they were too far back and struggled to get to the winner.
Click to expand...
Very impressive results on your PDF. 👍
 
BC said:
I recently read Enemy Number One, by Patrick Veitch. He said he doesn’t like using the word Value. Rather, he prefers Underrated.
Click to expand...
By the way, I should be clear that he wasn’t advocating betting odds on.

It’s a great read and I will be reading it again. Definitely a keeper.
 
Would not make sense to pay training fees and then run for prize money that will not cover the fees.
More and more trainers are coming into the game.
More and more trainers trying to win prize money that's not covering the bills
Maybe trainers can have more money on then the average Joe, but that would not make sense if punters are getting knocked back
It kind of points to trainers having to become more then just a racing stable.

Arkle
 
BC said:
It’s a great read and I will be reading it again. Definitely a keeper.
Click to expand...
I bought it when it was first published and while its worth the read its more a case of i did than how to. I would have preferred a little more meat on the bones Re how he arrived at his selections. There is a more recent Simon Nott - Star Sports interview where he relates that the treatment he received from the likes of Ladbrokes now gets pay back via the back door and this i was pleased to learn. :)
 
Re the title “Systematic Betting”.

One of the reasons why VDW did not like the title could be because of its similarity (title-wise) to the book “Systematic Professional Betting” by R.W. Wood, first printed in 1953. VDW could very well have owned this book. In this book is the very same staking plan put up by VDW (letter 7, The Golden Years). The plan is called “One Point Profit For Each Racing Day”. “The selection is the shortest-priced favourite as quoted in the betting forecast, only those horses at evens or over being considered.”

The table is the same as VDW with the 4th and 7th bets as winners, but in R. W. Wood’s the prices were 6/4 and 2/1 so the sequence continued with 2 winners at evens for the 9th and 10th bet before the debit column (Points Outstanding) returned to zero. The was also no betting tax in the fifties, so no tax allowed for in the illustration.

Jennyk,

Your post number 560 is excellent with more snippets of VDW’s personal life. In Mtoto’s blog there is a post stating that in 1976 VDW’s mother moved back to the street where VDW was born and that she had two sisters living on the same street.

I am pretty sure that VDW was born in Lincoln, so it makes me wonder if one of these Aunties was THE G. Hall of Lincoln.
 
Some say vdw was TP but the clue is maybe in the first letter with the typo which gave BL a 3, i think TP would of been more scrupulous being an editor and put in 4. Also the 313 for DF how would he of known about bringing in the 3 because of him being last and factoring it in as 0.

vdw made many errors in his scripts also, like the above giving 3 for a 4 with BL, the faulty maths example showing 99% etc, and the giving of a staking plan when supposedly achieving near on 90% winners, yet sometimes with his form reading he had a twinkling of knowledge in their the man was a real enigma i think.

Not saying i would advocate anybody trying to follow him, but as mick mick advises its best to use our own minds more to find the best elements involved which fit in with us.
 
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