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The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune - "From Start to Finish", "Entering the Straight"

V VanMan

I should perhaps have been more explicit in my reply to T Thomas. I don't have any problem seeing why Countdown won. He showed his 4yo level of ability with the win on 24/10/06 and on my ratings hinted that he had improved on that as a 5yo with his run on 18/05/07, confirming it on 22/06/07. Back over his last winning course and trip on 04/07/07, and with a realistic margin of improvement to find from that last win, he was the likely winner.

What puzzled me is that Countdown came into the 04/07/07 race with a very different profile to the other Flat selections dropping in class which Lee gave - in respect of key horse form. Key horse form seems to have been an important element of Lee's selections, actually whether they were rising or dropping in class, and was very much part of the post for whose whereabouts on the thread Thomas was asking. Still, as with VDW's selections, with commonalities clearly don't explain all.
 
I don't expect anyone to read or try to understand anything I say, everyone is on their own journey. What i will say is dont confuse form with the worth of the form, form comes first then you can attempt to validate it by whatever process you have deemed most relevant.
 
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Absolutely agree.

For Lee, (as indeed often for VDW) key horse form seems an, perhaps the most, important way of assessing the worth of form, and it is the lack of that in Countdown's case that makes him stand out in my schedule of the data for Lee's selections.
 
There are many things that happen to a trainers horse that will enable him to reflect on its future propects, running close to a good one is just one of them
 
Going back to the race on 4/7
As with VDW's examples, it is no use looking at the individual races in isolation. the whole days racing needs evaluating. why was that the only race where a selection was made? what kind of ramshackle events were they. To focus on an individual horse takes away from the enormous amount of detailed evaluation that went into that single selection "on the day".
 
I would assume VDW was working from lists after evaluating the daily results.

Nowadays there is way too much racing to be able to go through it race by race.

I also think VDW wasn't a face on the racing circuit, which leads me to think that he didn't go racing much, and with a dearth of live racing on television, I think he just worked with the form book.
 
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I have tried lists and it didnt work for me, I found plenty winners but found myself chasing the placings all over the place. One day I was reminded of VDWs words "betting up and down across the cards and there is no hope" and it reminded me of temperament, in 1981 he even ignored winners from indicated races, now that is temperament. One day, fingers crossed.🖖
For me, I found it better to wait until they drop in my lap.
 
Prince Ali is a horse I have on a list despite being a 6 year old.

Last 3 runs very consistent behind
Asgard's Captain
Snooze Lane
Lough Leane

To me PA is coming to the boil and must be watched to see how he is placed.

The stable is small but is in reasonable form and I can see them picking up a race for Prince Ali pretty soon.
 
T Thomas

Attached is a chart showing Prince Ali's twenty-seven handicap performances on my ratings (brown line), with the trend line in blue. The two wins are shown on the green line. The first five races were for Mr Makin, the next twenty-two for Ms Faulkner.

For me, the striking feature is that from when he won his first handicap as a 3yo there has been no evidence of progression. Given the trend and that on my ratings his last run was his worst since last June, I wouldn't describe him as coming to the boil. Hopefully, as he continues to drop in the Official ratings, Ms Faulkner will find a race he can win.
 

Attachments

  • Prince Ali.png
    Prince Ali.png
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The OH dropped Prince Ali another pound so he is now back to his last winning mark, something that always interests me.

He is entered in two races at Chelmsford on Saturday, so if he is declared for one we should see whether he can still be competitive off 61 or whether he needs to drop further to offset increasing age.
 
Back to his last winning mark, and with the weakest field he has faced since that win, plausible and, today of all days, thousands will back double-figure priced horses with less chance.
 
Trainers

IMG_0640.jpeg

Some Trainers will hit the net with their horses in their 2nd outing in a Handicap Hurdle. It s a good area to research and build yourself a list of Trainers who are proficient with their placements

Successful lists can be backed blindly but if cherry picked from the qualifiers, the profits improve.

The following is from my list of such Trainers and the results are if backed blindly, but remember profits can be much greater if Cherry Picked



IMG_0638.jpeg
IMG_0639.jpeg
 
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Another Angle for KEY RACE FORM

With some of the Higher Prize money races you will find that certain LTO Races lead to the Winner

Take for instance The TOP NOVICE HURDLE that was run at Aintree on Friday

14 /14 past winners nd run in the Supreme Hurdle
This years Winner was 2nd in the Supreme Hurdle
 
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