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The Real Deal or just a lucky streak

J

Jack the Russell

Yearling
Hi there, I was googling horse racing systems and The UK Betting Forum came up, I then subscribed and have been looking at some of the systems on here, made some great reading, and there is alot more that I am interested in, I have been trying for a while to come up with something that might work, while looking for big priced winners, but usually to get the higher strike rates I was only getting a low number of bets over the year, and never got round to following them through, I then did a complete change to the way I was making the systems and came up with an idea that gave me these final results, I have another 2 with similar final results to these but over 2 and 3 years.

This system I made has been in profit since 2019 be it small but still profit, 2020 was better and 2021 was good, but in 2022 it looks to be snowballing, as I have never followed a system through it was just something to mess about with but I simply look at these numbers and think this cannot possibly work, it has massive chi score of 136.27, ROI% of 170.53 and AE score of 2.44 making the average priced winnner of 11.46 from a set betting system price between the odds of 5.00 to 25.00

When getting numbers like these do systems work in the real world when betting on future winners? or do these numbers just look like, if I had bet them in the past I would just be in the middle of a massive variance of a lucky streak

Any views would be greatly appreciated

1 point level stake win = 100 point bank, Lowest Balance 91 points Jan 2022, Highest balance 1,045 points May 2024.

2022 -195 Bets. = 35 Wins SR% 17.95 P/L%BSP 176.06.
2023- 239 Bets = 68 Wins SR% 28.45 P/L %BSP 473.16.
2024- 107 Bets = 38 Wins SR% 35.51 P/L% BSP 192.21
 
First I would ask is this system backfitted? That's the most certain way for it not to be future proof.
Is it built around common sense or just picking combinations that arrived a high chi score etc?
Considering the price range here and the S/R my gut instinct is that it's too good to be true.
Test it and see how it goes in the 'live' environment.
 
I would also recommend applying proportional staking (stake/odds) when looking at profitable systems, as long priced winners tend to make the figures look overly impressive.
 
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Hi J Jack the Russell , welcome to the forum.

A couple of helpful comments there - cheers guys.

I have been using systems for many years now ( I have about 15 currently active and several more that I am monitoring )
My way of working is to come up with an idea first, spend some time considering it and whether it seems logical, and only then will I check out past results to see if it looks fit for purpose.
If everything looks good I will then paper trade it for a good while before I put real money down.
I will only add a filter if I can see a logical reason for it, so most of my systems have very few rules - less rules less to go wrong I guess is my motto !

Best of luck with your system.
 
LukeyBoy said:
First I would ask is this system backfitted? That's the most certain way for it not to be future proof.
Is it built around common sense or just picking combinations that arrived a high chi score etc?
Considering the price range here and the S/R my gut instinct is that it's too good to be true.
Test it and see how it goes in the 'live' environment.
Click to expand...
Hi Luke/Leodis and Dave, thanks for the reply,

I have watched videos on how to build sytems on common sense rules / no backfitting and I have got this down to what I think goes mostly by the rules, examples are on horse age 9yo is not profitable, but 10 and 11 is, so I keep the 9 yo in, odds of over 51-100 are not profitable so I took this one out,

The one thing I have done that I definitely know will make the chi score and S/R high is targeting only the very profitable Trainer/Jockey/Course/Price/Combo and matching these to the RACE TYPE that the system is looking for, and this is how these big numbers are coming out, , I have 47 Jockeys, 20 Trainers and 24 Course's and all are profitable when targeting this race type, I suppose this could or is backfitting I dont know, but it seems to works, and I am looking at all the data that shows every winner and loser from the system, price and bank.

I have not been live testing this for long as took alot of time and hours for me to get it to where it is, probably @40 hours and only finished it last week, although I am testing it now I could not resist the 3 bets it gave me at Epsom yesterday (Friday) 2 in the same race and and a loser in the other but the 1 winner I got on very early and got a price 49.00 lol but I think at this price the sytem would not show it as it is out of the price range I do not know what would happen there, Two Tempting returned BSP 17.00 so it has showed up at this price on my system as its between 5.0-25.0

So in this last week live, it gave 2 winners from 6 bets, will try not to back any more while live testing using a poker term, sit on hands.
 
dave58 said:
Hi J Jack the Russell , welcome to the forum.

A couple of helpful comments there - cheers guys.

I have been using systems for many years now ( I have about 15 currently active and several more that I am monitoring )
My way of working is to come up with an idea first, spend some time considering it and whether it seems logical, and only then will I check out past results to see if it looks fit for purpose.
If everything looks good I will then paper trade it for a good while before I put real money down.
I will only add a filter if I can see a logical reason for it, so most of my systems have very few rules - less rules less to go wrong I guess is my motto !

Best of luck with your system.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the welcome dave, and the adivse, all is taken in.

I have been into making systems of some kind on all types of gambling in the past from Stocks and Shares, Football, Poker, and the very early days horse racing sytems of one kind or another, and to honest, the only one that worked for a while was poker, but as the years go by the poker game evolves and so do the players, and if you dont keep on top you get left well behind, so really nothing has worked long term for me system wise.

I really like what you said about coming with an idea, I used to try to find an original system that no one else would have in the Football, so many times I thought I was getting close, but its all been done before and the winning soon went to break even or losing.

Trying to think outside the box is what I have allways tried to do , and now these system builders the like's of HRB and a few other very good ones , give anyone a chance to find something different from the crowd, because there are thousands upon thousands of different variations.

Its not that long ago when Graham Wheldon, The Effects of the Draw, knew he had something different well before his book came out.

I just hope we are not looking for fools gold with all these systems past and present. As the Birmingham Blues song goes, Keep Right On To The End Of The Road. and gl
 
Leodis said:
I would also recommend applying proportional staking (stake/odds) when looking at profitable systems, as long priced winners tend to make the figures look overly impressive.
Click to expand...
Hi Leodis, yes I agree, big priced winners give the figures a very unballanced look, I have been here many times before, so I am used to treading with caution. as I have said in my other replys so many times I think I have found somethinig different but still nothing has worked yet. gl.
 
Do you have Horseracebase or something similar that will allow you to back test over a greater number of years?

Having BSP odds in the system will make it difficult/impossible to get on all qualifiers in the future as the BSP is not known until the race has actually started. To me the very high chi score is more of a concern rather than a positive as it is making me think that the system is backfitted in some way.
 
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Hi, ArkRoyal

Yes ArkRoyal that makes alot of sence as I am picking odds of 5.0-25.0, I have in 2 columns SP and BSP I use BF to back so I read the results from the BSP column which is always bigger than SP, I have only been live testing for a week 6 bets 2 of them won the first one was SP 5.00 BSP 5.93 so yes that proves your point and I see exactly what you mean now, like you say its impossible, thanks for that.

I have tried HRB in the past, but in my case I am much more comfortable using the Inform Racing sytem builder it goes back to 2014, I really enjoy getting stuck into it.

As for backfitting if I have it has been done by picking Trainer/Jockey/Course/Price/Combo and matching these to the RACE TYPE that the system is looking for, the A/E from Jan 2022 is 2.47, 2023 A/E is 2.82, 2024 A/E is 3.30

I am almost sure the high chi score is down to the jockey % , a good example would be the jockeys strike rates, I have 47 jockeys

2 of them are 100% 1@75% 3@60% 8@50% 4@33% and 4 @28% 3@27% 3@25% and the rest go down to a low of 18.75%. could this be back fitting?

I suppose I am looking for reasons why it might not be profitable when I come to use it, with the average winning price of @10.0 I do feel good about it, but like I said in one of my replys I have never found any kind gambling system that works long term in the past..

Thanks for the reply Ark Royal, really appreciate it, I am taking it all in.
 
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Jack the Russell said:
Hi, ArkRoyal

Yes ArkRoyal that makes alot of sence as I am picking odds of 5.0-25.0,
Click to expand...

Hi J Jack the Russell , the above does ring warning bells to me to be honest.
Personally I won't put a filter in unless I can see some reason behind it, so why set that particular odds range ?
Why don't you back below 5 or over 25 ?
It just seems a bit random to me and maybe a case of manipulation of past results to make the figures look better ?
If I have a system that I am happy with then I back every qualifier because I believe that my systems show profit for the simple reason that I have discovered something that goes against the crowd .
Only a couple of days ago one of our members here posted a selection with detailed reasoning - it won at a fantastic price , but nobody was especially surprised because we have a few posters here that produce the goods over and over.
.
Sorry to sound a bit negative - I'm only trying to help here, but maybe you might like to think a bit deeper about putting odds limits on your systems without a good reason ?
 
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LukeyBoy said:
First I would ask is this system backfitted? That's the most certain way for it not to be future proof.
Is it built around common sense or just picking combinations that arrived a high chi score etc?
Considering the price range here and the S/R my gut instinct is that it's too good to be true.
Test it and see how it goes in the 'live' environnt.
Click to expand...

dave58 said:
Hi J Jack the Russell , the above does ring warning bells to me to be honest.
Personally I won't put a filter in unless I can see some reason behind it, so why set that particular odds range ?
Why don't you back below 5 or over 25 ?
It just seems a bit random to me and maybe a case of manipulation of past results to make the figures look better ?
If I have a system that I am happy with then I back every qualifier because I believe that my systems show profit for the simple reason that I have discovered something that goes against the crowd .
Only a couple of days ago one of our members here posted a selection with detailed reasoning - it won at a fantastic price , but nobody was especially surprised because we have a few posters here that produce the goods over and over.
.
Sorry to sound a bit negative - I'm only trying to help here, but maybe you might like to think a bit deeper about putting odds limits on your systems without a good reason ?
Click to expand...
Hi Dave, thanks for the reply this is what I want, people that know much more about this than I do, and to tell me where I might be going wrong, its easy for me to change a couple of numbers and do a test, but I have been on ages making this and the price was a problem , I did try a few ways to do it but I was better off all round with the 5.0 to 25.0. price range.

I have just tested the prices again and here are the main results, Ark Royal proved when testing results it should be done with SP as I had a set price of my odds, but as the rest of thread is about BSP i will stick with BSP results From January 2022

Price in Bets 545, wins142, S/R 26.06, P/L BSP 945, ROI% 175.07 Chi score 138.51, A/E 2.47 Min win BSP 5.00 Max win BSP 24.83,
No Price Bets 809 wins 187 S/R 23.11 , P/L BSP 1,002 ROI% 123.90 Chi score 88.45, A/E 1.88 Min win BSP 2.39 Max win BSP 42.07

No Price is better off P/L BSP by £57, Price in with the a much bigger S/R, and ROI% and 264 less bets, looks to be a much better option imo

I wanted to try and find bigger priced winners rather than odds on, evens, or 2/1or3/1 shots thats not what I wanted, I know most of the replys if not all think it dosent look right, but I am not conviced its totally wrong, as long as the live testing goes well I have to stick with it.

Thanks for the input dave
 
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J Jack the Russell I think you may have misunderstood my BSP comment. Whether you use SP or BSP does not matter. The issue is that both are unknown until after the race has started so you would not know if a selections odds fell within your odds range filter until after the race had started.

It might be worth producing a graph showing the P/L over time for both of the following options:-

Price in Bets 545, wins142, S/R 26.06, P/L BSP 945, ROI% 175.07 Chi score 138.51, A/E 2.47 Min win BSP 5.00 Max win BSP 24.83,
No Price Bets 809 wins 187 S/R 23.11 , P/L BSP 1,002 ROI% 123.90 Chi score 88.45, A/E 1.88 Min win BSP 2.39 Max win BSP 42.07

This should allow you to see what effect losing runs will have on your bank.
 
Hi ArkRoyal, I think I understand now, but as far as I am concerned I asked for a min of 5 and max of 25 and all qualifiers are recieved are in this price range at the time of me getting them which is the day before, I dont know the ins and outs of how the software works, there is plenty of information and videos on how everything works on site and youtube just have not got round to seeing alot of it,

I have been on a US web site over the w/e that showed quiet a few ready made systems with all the figures and how it was made in the US although in a differnt stye to ours, and there was info on back fitting I think they called it something else, and how and why not to do it, I think now this is backfitted, and not to be trusted , but its all part of a learning curve and I appreciate your help and all the other replys

So its back to the drawing board for me,

I have learned alot since the short time of being on this site, and I will be back gl all.

Thank you for all your help and to all that replied to this post



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Hi J Jack the Russell

One think you can do is to do is to look at a Micro System

It helps if you have reason why the components make sense

For instance some Trainers will use a particular Claiming Jockey who is under the radar to ride on of their horses in a handicap as they take valuable Lbs off

Pre Race example from yesterday

Note that their are few Criteria Rules

IMG_1163.jpeg
 
Hi Chesham,

I thought it had to be the jockeys giving the very high Chi score, I did not know when I made the system the Chi score could go that high and its oviously put everything out of sync, and the Micro System it all makes sence now, when all the numbers came out big I did get a bit carried away at first, but soon realised it would be impossible to make these kind of profits, thats when I thought if I join up here, there are bound to be people on this forum that would know why the figures & sytstem look so unrealistic,

I now will look to start one of my other idea's, this time with a bit more knowledge going forward,and mothball this system,
and thanks for your help Chesham its much appreciated.
 
Hi J Jack the Russell

I think that you maybe missing out on not continuing with HRB. There are so many angles

Example

HRB have hundreds of Big Trends Races that you can study and save for the future

This years running has not happened yet but, this is one of my saved that seems to be performing well since it was saved.

In recent years it has only missed out once, although the Trend results on the screen shot go back to 1998

Please note the number of Rules are only 2, less chance that Back Fitting is coming into play

IMG_1180.jpeg
Recent results seem to be improving and I suspect that is the the Official Rating mean a certain class of horse is essential and lesser Rated are disadvantaged

IMG_1181.jpeg
 
Hi Chesham,
That looks a great system, really top notch, I know HRB is very highly recommended I did alot of research on it a while back , but I tried it and could not get away with it at the time, I have used Racing Post on and off for over the years but every couple of years I would change over to football trading which I thoroughly enjoy, and that trend from switching from one to the other although my football is out of favour at the moment, seem's be to ongoing every couple of years although I have only ever been a break even player after subs have been paid in both hobby's

I also got interested in the Inform speed figures and inrunning tool,and every now and then I use the system builder,and I have found a few profitable systems under the normal rules lol, but was more interested in the inrunning and ratings than following the system's, through, I just fancied doing something completly different like this one that I posted.

I am going to get more into sytsem builder and other ideas with Racing Post in future and make time to live test the idea's here.

Thanks again Chesham
 
One way to check a System for back fittings using Horseracebase is to set up my missing a year e.g. include 2021 2022 2024 2025 then add your criteria.
If it looks good remove all those years and add 2023 and look again .
Often a losing year .
 
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