The Missing Link

[Garry]

Mjay wrote “Tonight on the brink of sleep I will be instructing my subconscious to provide the missing link ….”.

For anyone who is interested.

I believe the key to the missing link lies in two things. First, what VDW meant by his expression “you will have the same horses as myself” and second from Spells It All Out, “Figures show it can confidently be expected that a horse with the right qualifications will seldom fail to carry off the prize when it is big enough”.

Now VDW had an uncanny knack of selecting the winner of virtually every race he evaluated, so it would be a bit unfair to expect us mere mortals to do the same. Therefore, having the same horses must mean backing the same horses.

In Spells It All Out VDW evaluated 5 races in 1981. These were in order of prize money;

Sat Mar 7, Haydock, Timeform Chase £10,782 won by Little Owl 4/5F. VDW bet.
Sat Mar 7, Haydock, Greenall Whitley Hcap Ch £9,681 won by Sunset Cristo 5/1JF. VDW bet.
Sat Mar 7, Newbury, Saddle of Gold Hdle (Final) £6,140 won by Gaye Chance 11/1.
Sat Mar 7, Hereford, Sun Valley Nov Ch £2,545 won by Wild Gamble 11/2.
Sat Mar 7, Market Rasen, Cox Moore Hcap Ch £2,407 won by Kenlis 11/4F.

The following week we had;

Sat Mar 14, Sandown, Imperial Cup Hcap Hdle £8,808 won by Ekbalco 8/1. VDW bet?
Sat Mar 14, Ayr, I.C.I. Petrol Hcap Hdle £3,116 won by Justafancy 4/1. VDW bet?
Sat Mar 14, Doncaster, Grimthorpe Hcap Ch £2,754 won by Regents Garden 2/7F.
Sat Mar 14, Chepstow, Abandoned.
VDW actually described Ekbalco and Justafancy as good things.

Then we have;

Tue Mar 17, Cheltenham, Champion Hurdle £32,260 won by Sea Pigeon 7/4F.
Tue Mar 17, Cheltenham, Atkle Trophy Ch £15,204 won by Clayside 5/2F. VDW bet.
Tue Mar 17, Sedgefield, Ramside Hcap Ch £1,192 won by Twopenny Blue 16/1.

Wed Mar 18, Cheltenham, Champion Chase £20,852 won by Drumgora 25/1.
Wed Mar 18, Cheltenham, Sun Alliance Chase £19,559 won by Lesley Ann 25/1.
Wed Mar 18, Stockton, Abandoned.

Thu Mar 19, Cheltenham, Cheltenham Gold Cup Ch £44,258 won by Little Owl 6/1. VDW bet.
Thu Mar 19, Cheltenham, Triumph Hdle £15,110 won by Baron Blakeney 66/1. VDW’s bet Broadsword 7/4F finished 2nd.
Thu Mar 19, Hexham, Chollerford Hcap Ch £1,014 won by Solo Sam 7/4.
The VDW bets at Cheltenham were described as his own selections but it is safe to assume they were bets.

It is clear from the above that VDW’s bets came from the 2 highest class (highest prizemoney) races of the day. So VDW selected the horses with the right qualifications to win these big prize races.

Therefore, the missing link is not a process that leads you to a selection (the winner) in every race. It is merely the choice of which selections to back. So, if you have evaluated 5 races from the days cards and come up with 5 selections, then you should only be backing the one or two from the highest value races and leaving the rest alone. This way you will be having the same horses as VDW. Provided, of course, you followed his selection process and the prize was big enough.

 

[mick]

Hi G Garry interesting read above but if correct then why work the additional races involved. ? One of the aspects i did admire Re the VDW letters was the amount of time and effort he would have used to manually set out each race prior to evaluating but to do so knowing beforehand that you would not be betting in some regardless of findings seems strange.?

I did get the thinking Re his race selection by prize money but also felt there was a downside in respect that those two most valuable races would have included many different race types ie a 2yo contest and or a top class Hcap for 4yo + plus more variations for the NH, so the backer would need jack of all trade skills which fair dues VDW might have possessed but i suspect less likely for many of his followers ? ( including myself ).

 

[Garry]

“why work the additional races”

Hi Mick, I had thought about this and the answer lies in “a horse with the right qualifications will seldom fail to carry off the prize when it is big enough”. The prize, say a £2,500 race at a minor meeting in 1981, may well be big enough for a comparatively lower-class horse or an improving horse. So, the evaluation would still need to be done to see if such a horse with the right qualifications existed.

As you know Tony Peach requested that VDW put everything he had written previously together, which resulted in Spells It All Out. Whether he really did evaluate all those races is anybody’s guess. But that is not important because he used the examples to highlight things we should be looking out for.

 

[nicksar]

Mjay wrote “Tonight on the brink of sleep I will be instructing my subconscious to provide the missing link ….”.

For anyone who is interested.

I believe the key to the missing link lies in two things. First, what VDW meant by his expression “you will have the same horses as myself” and second from Spells It All Out, “Figures show it can confidently be expected that a horse with the right qualifications will seldom fail to carry off the prize when it is big enough”.

Now VDW had an uncanny knack of selecting the winner of virtually every race he evaluated, so it would be a bit unfair to expect us mere mortals to do the same. Therefore, having the same horses must mean backing the same horses.

In Spells It All Out VDW evaluated 5 races in 1981. These were in order of prize money;

Sat Mar 7, Haydock, Timeform Chase £10,782 won by Little Owl 4/5F. VDW bet.
Sat Mar 7, Haydock, Greenall Whitley Hcap Ch £9,681 won by Sunset Cristo 5/1JF. VDW bet.
Sat Mar 7, Newbury, Saddle of Gold Hdle (Final) £6,140 won by Gaye Chance 11/1.
Sat Mar 7, Hereford, Sun Valley Nov Ch £2,545 won by Wild Gamble 11/2.
Sat Mar 7, Market Rasen, Cox Moore Hcap Ch £2,407 won by Kenlis 11/4F.

The following week we had;

Sat Mar 14, Sandown, Imperial Cup Hcap Hdle £8,808 won by Ekbalco 8/1. VDW bet?
Sat Mar 14, Ayr, I.C.I. Petrol Hcap Hdle £3,116 won by Justafancy 4/1. VDW bet?
Sat Mar 14, Doncaster, Grimthorpe Hcap Ch £2,754 won by Regents Garden 2/7F.
Sat Mar 14, Chepstow, Abandoned.
VDW actually described Ekbalco and Justafancy as good things.

Then we have;

Tue Mar 17, Cheltenham, Champion Hurdle £32,260 won by Sea Pigeon 7/4F.
Tue Mar 17, Cheltenham, Atkle Trophy Ch £15,204 won by Clayside 5/2F. VDW bet.
Tue Mar 17, Sedgefield, Ramside Hcap Ch £1,192 won by Twopenny Blue 16/1.

Wed Mar 18, Cheltenham, Champion Chase £20,852 won by Drumgora 25/1.
Wed Mar 18, Cheltenham, Sun Alliance Chase £19,559 won by Lesley Ann 25/1.
Wed Mar 18, Stockton, Abandoned.

Thu Mar 19, Cheltenham, Cheltenham Gold Cup Ch £44,258 won by Little Owl 6/1. VDW bet.
Thu Mar 19, Cheltenham, Triumph Hdle £15,110 won by Baron Blakeney 66/1. VDW’s bet Broadsword 7/4F finished 2nd.
Thu Mar 19, Hexham, Chollerford Hcap Ch £1,014 won by Solo Sam 7/4.
The VDW bets at Cheltenham were described as his own selections but it is safe to assume they were bets.

It is clear from the above that VDW’s bets came from the 2 highest class (highest prizemoney) races of the day. So VDW selected the horses with the right qualifications to win these big prize races.

Therefore, the missing link is not a process that leads you to a selection (the winner) in every race. It is merely the choice of which selections to back. So, if you have evaluated 5 races from the days cards and come up with 5 selections, then you should only be backing the one or two from the highest value races and leaving the rest alone. This way you will be having the same horses as VDW. Provided, of course, you followed his selection process and the prize was big enough.

Although of a similar age to yourself and sharing another thing in common with you (almost) I've never really looked at anything VDW related, and to be honest never post on any thread where the VDW thing is mentioned but can I ask did VDW post up those two horses he said we're good things before or after they had run ?.

 

[Outlander]

Although of a similar age to yourself and sharing another thing in common with you (almost) I've never really looked at anything VDW related, and to be honest never post on any thread where the VDW thing is mentioned but can I ask did VDW post up those two horses he said we're good things before or after they had run ?.

Just reading your reply made me realise something in the good old days late 80s and early 90s I could pick winners before they had run, then after that I couldn’t really pick many winners before they had run but I could understand why they had won after they had won…now I don’t even understand how they have won after they have won

 

[mick]

Although of a similar age to yourself and sharing another thing in common with you (almost) I've never really looked at anything VDW related, and to be honest never post on any thread where the VDW thing is mentioned but can I ask did VDW post up those two horses he said we're good things before or after they had run ?.

Hi nicksar the initial VDW letters and claims created a huge amount of interest but i do not recall him ever providing a pre race selection and both then and in some cases now this is the aspect which often causes trouble on VDW threads and apparently also on the dedicated VDW forums. At the time there was no internet but a quick phone call to the respected editor of the weekly publication which printed his letters would have sorted it, and by validating the claims would have further increased the interest.

What actually happened was a loss of interest caused by increasing frustration as most tried but failed to understand best use of his method. I was one and blaming myself moved on end of. But apparently the VDW method for dealing with this was to then create additional identity's which enabled him to have letters posted praising himself and posing as third parties claiming to have cracked his method . When i belatedly discovered this then imo the man lost all creditability others may feel different and that's there prerogative.

While most members of this forum would accept an occasional after timed winner used to example something being discussed, if or when the poster continuously talks of past and current success then requesting a few pre race picks to evidence his hinted at advanced knowledge of the method does not appear an unreasonable ask. ? As i mentioned previously this applies to any method or system but the VDW one attracts more hinters than most.

Having previously posted versions of the above i have just asked myself why repeat, with the answer being perhaps there are lessons to be learnt. ? Ending on a lighter note It is a source of disappointment that i cannot break through Admins defences when attempting to create my own second identity on this forum, because while there would be no self praise involved it is odds on that there would be plenty of entertaining arguments between Me and Him.