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VDW The Elementary Mechanical Procedure

Had a thought as an alternative Ability as you could have £20000 races but does not attract the best horses to compete . The Winner might still have won a 20000 Race but not beaten much

Perhaps use the Winning Median OR

Here is the breakdown of the highest and average Median ORs for each horse based on their Flat and All-Weather victories (or 2nd place finishes for Tabasko).

Note: National Hunt/Hurdle races have been excluded as requested. For Taritino, his July 2022 Novice win (Median OR 0) was excluded from the average calculation to provide an accurate reflection of his handicap form.

HorseBest Win Median ORAverage Win Median OR
Scarlet Moon7872.4
Russian Rumour (IRE)7763.4
Taritino (IRE)7268.1
Tabasko (2nd Places)7874.5

Breakdown by Horse​

Scarlet Moon (4 Qualifying Flat/AW Wins)

  • 78 (Sandown, 30.Jul.25)
  • 72.5 (Kempton, 7.May.25)
  • 70 (Southwell, 6.Apr.25)
  • 69 (Wolverhampton, 12.May.25)
Russian Rumour (IRE) (9 Qualifying Flat/AW Wins)

  • 77 (Nottingham, 9.May.26)
  • 69 (Lingfield, 18.Jun.25)
  • 66 (Southwell, 4.Apr.21)
  • 65 (Bath, 17.Jun.23)
  • 62 (Ffos Las, 28.Sep.25)
  • 62 (Nottingham, 11.May.24)
  • 61 (Bath, 10.Oct.24)
  • 55.5 (Southwell, 3.Nov.20)
  • 53 (Bath, 19.Aug.20)
Taritino (IRE) (5 Qualifying Flat/AW Handicap Wins)

  • 72 (Chester, 27.Jun.26)
  • 71.5 (Salisbury, 14.Jun.26)
  • 66 (Salisbury, 16.Jun.24)
  • 66 (Chepstow, 31.May.24)
  • 65 (Bath, 7.Jun.24)
Tabasko (2 Qualifying Flat/AW 2nd Places)

  • 78 (Epsom, 1.Jul.26)
  • 71 (Doncaster, 18.Jul.26)
Would you mix Flat form and A/W Chesham Chesham
 
IL SILENZIO is a strong selection here. He took this contest last year off 6lb higher and proved he retained his ability on his reappearance where he ran well for a long way until his fitness gave out. If building on that he can defeat former course winner Kilashee who went too fast last time. She continues to slide down the weights and could get an easier time up front here. Chase debutants True Harmony and Thewaybackhome have been in good form over hurdles so would be of interest if getting a run.
  1. Il Silenzio (5)
  2. Kilashee (13)
  3. True Harmony (18)
Well done Jackform Jackform :handgestures-thumbup:
 
I think the all weather and grass are so different would be dangerous mix them then once you have mixed them ability rating wise your now in the realm of what do i do with there form i personally only like taking there grass form and if there horse short in betting like top three and never raced in grass i just jump race right away.
 
If you don’t mix Flat and AW that’s fine it’s personal choice regarding measuring ability .



The question I would ask is should the going that the horse has won on also be factored in

Quite a few horses perform on both AW and Flat.

At the end of the day the idea I gave is just a measure of class the horse has achieved so far

After an initial Ability measure most would then look at the other variables involved when analysing a race

I was just offering a suggestion for an alternative measure to the VDW Ability Rating

If I remember correctly there have been discussion on should AW wins not be lumped together with Flat wins
 
Yep and good idea to Chesham Chesham a lot better i think that than the original ability but if honest i have never believed in the ability rating that piece you gave us about was it fulham was spot on with a lot how can you rate a horse ability on wins when horse runs in place in far better races take that horse that got beat by frankel few times surely being placed had hindered this horses ability rating yet unjust so.
I would say a horse finishing second in 20k race is better than a horse winning 12k race so maybe some way of awarding it points for that is better and place money not sure thats enough like say second place is 6k in the 20k race so they 12k still better but if beat say 4 lengths you could do some thing like take 4 of the 20k so that race was a 16k to the second now still better than the 12k race that to me sounds more realistic to. would be a lot more data to go through to be fair, is third in that race beaten 8 lengths taking 8 of 20k and now 12k is that the same as winning a winner of 12k race not sure it is but i dont think very often seconds and thirds get beat as far in general.
You could do it to max beat like nothing beat more than 2 lengths count some thing to bring the place horses into the picture in better races .
 
I wonder if comparing a horse's stride data between the two surfaces would ascertain whether mixing its Aw and turf form would be a wise move.

Hurdles and chase form will always be chalk and cheese to me, though.
 
Yep and good idea to Chesham Chesham a lot better i think that than the original ability but if honest i have never believed in the ability rating that piece you gave us about was it fulham was spot on with a lot how can you rate a horse ability on wins when horse runs in place in far better races take that horse that got beat by frankel few times surely being placed had hindered this horses ability rating yet unjust so.
I would say a horse finishing second in 20k race is better than a horse winning 12k race so maybe some way of awarding it points for that is better and place money not sure thats enough like say second place is 6k in the 20k race so they 12k still better but if beat say 4 lengths you could do some thing like take 4 of the 20k so that race was a 16k to the second now still better than the 12k race that to me sounds more realistic to. would be a lot more data to go through to be fair, is third in that race beaten 8 lengths taking 8 of 20k and now 12k is that the same as winning a winner of 12k race not sure it is but i dont think very often seconds and thirds get beat as far in general.
You could do it to max beat like nothing beat more than 2 lengths count some thing to bring the place horses into the picture in better races .
Would you place the same value to a horse running in a £20k race at say Ripon, as you would a £20K race @ Ascot? gerry gerry

1785878643530.png
 
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Had a thought as an alternative Ability as you could have £20000 races but does not attract the best horses to compete . The Winner might still have won a 20000 Race but not beaten much

Perhaps use the Winning Median OR

Here is the breakdown of the highest and average Median ORs for each horse based on their Flat and All-Weather victories (or 2nd place finishes for Tabasko).

Note: National Hunt/Hurdle races have been excluded as requested. For Taritino, his July 2022 Novice win (Median OR 0) was excluded from the average calculation to provide an accurate reflection of his handicap form.

HorseBest Win Median ORAverage Win Median OR
Scarlet Moon7872.4
Russian Rumour (IRE)7763.4
Taritino (IRE)7268.1
Tabasko (2nd Places)7874.5

Breakdown by Horse​

Scarlet Moon (4 Qualifying Flat/AW Wins)

  • 78 (Sandown, 30.Jul.25)
  • 72.5 (Kempton, 7.May.25)
  • 70 (Southwell, 6.Apr.25)
  • 69 (Wolverhampton, 12.May.25)
Russian Rumour (IRE) (9 Qualifying Flat/AW Wins)

  • 77 (Nottingham, 9.May.26)
  • 69 (Lingfield, 18.Jun.25)
  • 66 (Southwell, 4.Apr.21)
  • 65 (Bath, 17.Jun.23)
  • 62 (Ffos Las, 28.Sep.25)
  • 62 (Nottingham, 11.May.24)
  • 61 (Bath, 10.Oct.24)
  • 55.5 (Southwell, 3.Nov.20)
  • 53 (Bath, 19.Aug.20)
Taritino (IRE) (5 Qualifying Flat/AW Handicap Wins)

  • 72 (Chester, 27.Jun.26)
  • 71.5 (Salisbury, 14.Jun.26)
  • 66 (Salisbury, 16.Jun.24)
  • 66 (Chepstow, 31.May.24)
  • 65 (Bath, 7.Jun.24)
Tabasko (2 Qualifying Flat/AW 2nd Places)

  • 78 (Epsom, 1.Jul.26)
  • 71 (Doncaster, 18.Jul.26)
I would also average the OR's of the first three home (depending on field size) to form a 'class of the finish' rating. This can be used alongside the median.


Regards
 
Thank you BC and Gerry. As ever when you are pontificating you ought to put your money where your mouth is. Had to go to Ireland to find one, as did Gordon, just couldn't find anything on the UK mainland:

Roscommon 8pm

1. X0000 1* 10/1 mkt 1.05pm
3. XXXXX 5* 9/2 Kilkee Bay
4. X00XX 3* 9/2
5. X0XXX 4* 3/1 Silenzio
12. XXX00 3* 15/2
17. XX000 2* 12/1

A bet could be to dutch Kilkeel Bay and Silenzio.
atthe races form verdict for comparison:
IL SILENZIO recorded his only victory in this race last year when eased down late on. He is 6lb higher this time, but that is cancelled out by Conor Smithers' claim and everything would appear to be right for him. One Way Traffic is an obvious threat after his second at Limerick in May, while Kilkee Bay is the pick of the remainder.
Top Tip: Il Silenzio (5)
Watch out for: One Way Traffic (4)
IL SILENZIO is a strong selection here. He took this contest last year off 6lb higher and proved he retained his ability on his reappearance where he ran well for a long way until his fitness gave out. If building on that he can defeat former course winner Kilashee who went too fast last time. She continues to slide down the weights and could get an easier time up front here. Chase debutants True Harmony and Thewaybackhome have been in good form over hurdles so would be of interest if getting a run.
  1. Il Silenzio (5)
  2. Kilashee (13)
  3. True Harmony (18)
Good call. Well done.
 
Recent discussion on should AW be separate for Flat and visa a versa.

These are the results from a saved system .

Haggas surface switchers from flat to AW listed races

Note some had not won on The AW but had won on Turf

IMG_0659.jpeg
 
I wonder if comparing a horse's stride data between the two surfaces would ascertain whether mixing its Aw and turf form would be a wise move.

Hurdles and chase form will always be chalk and cheese to me, though.
Leodis Leodis
This is the average stride length difference between Turf and AW (Since 2023 anyway)

Stride Length measured in Metres.

1785879671663.png

Hope that's of some use.
 
Here is a breakdown of Stride data for each course x distance.

There are some quite startling differences between some of the tracks. 5F @ Epsom (8.091m) vs 5F @ Pontefract (7.113m) for example.

1785881566158.png
 
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