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Tennis tournament betting - trialling an approach

N

numbercrunching

Yearling
I've enjoyed having a play around with some data and modelling approaches to tennis tournament betting, and I've settled upon a model that I want to try out. In this thread, I'll list bets on tournaments outright. Generally this will be before the tournament starts, but occasionally I might run it during a tournament depending on how it plays out.

Rationale: I've created a model based on various data sources to assess the chances of each individual player in a tournament. I then compare that to the market. Where there is a large edge identified by the model vs the market, I'll back it. I've set the edge as 5 percentage points, but we'll see how that works in time.

As i'm betting on tournaments rather than individual matches, this will be a slow burner over the coming months. It may also need a bit of revisiting to look at the Exchanges during the Slams (e.g. SkyBet's overround for Indian Wells right now is 146% which is ridiculous) but I'd sooner try and use definitively replicable odds.

Wish me luck.

WTA Indian Wells 1000
Aryna Sabalenka: 1 point win at 11/4 (available at SkyBet, William Hill and elsewhere)
 
I'm actually going to pivot this to match betting on the Exchange. The data is just a bit too fiddly to do at the tournament level without a lot of manual entry, that I just know I'm not going to maintain to the same degree.

So, the same rationale but instead I'm going to use the Betfair Exchange. Liquidity on matches is generally decent enough that if this seems successful over time, it could be a workable option for me/others.

I'll try to run the model reasonably close to match time so that the markets have firmed up enough (e.g. as it's Indian Wells, I'll run tonight UK time).
 
Two bets so far today (I'll run the model again later this afternoon).

Raphael Collignon vs Grigor Dimitrov - BACK COLLIGNON at 2.26

Elena-Gabriela Ruse vs Antonia Ruzic - BACK RUZIC at 2.48
 
Marcos Giron vs Martin Landaluce - BACK GIRON at 1.60

Alexandre Muller vs Matteo Berretini - BACK MULLER at 4.60

Magda Linette vs Iga Swiatek - BACK LINETTE at 22

Jennifer Brady vs Sloane Stephens - BACK STEPHENS at 3.00
 
Arthur Cazaux vs Marcelo Tomas Barrios - BACK CAZAUX at 1.61

Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexander Shevchenko - BACK ARNALDI at 2.18

Adam Walton vs Sebastian Baez - BACK BAEZ at 1.78

Gabriel Diallo vs Yibing Wu - BACK WU at 1.88
 
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