Tennis Momentum

[MySportsAI]

I found this interesting

There are snippets you can pull out without getting bogged down in the weeds

A multidimensional momentum chain model for tennis matches based on difference equations

In the process of pushing the limits of human performance, competitive sports are dedicated to the pursuit of excellence. In this context, the concept of "momentum" has gained significant attention, as it is widely acknowledged to influence the outcomes of competitions. The question of whether...

journals.plos.org

 

[MySportsAI]

There are 3 immediate things you could potentially take from this paper without getting bogged down. He highlights the correlation between unforced error count, outright winners and ground covered. My first thought was that these may have predictive value in running of course the market may also react to them accurately. I took a casual look at the womens final although I admit the paper suggests mens tennis may be better suited due to the testosterone factor. After 4 games Noskova (the outsider at pre match approx 2.25) was ahead with 3 UE, to Muchovas 5 and 2 OWs to Muchova 1. Ground covered is a little harder to monitor but I think she was ahead there as well. The Betfair reaction was to make her now 8/11 fav which is quite a reaction but you could have traded that price as the momentum continued during the first set. Food for thought and perhaps additional features you could use for modelling pre match odds