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  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
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System test

Both unplaced yesterday, will update numbers later.

Day 35

2:10 Wincanton - Head To The Stars
3:20 Wincanton - Coningsby
3:42 Ffos Las - Astra Via
4:15 Ffos Las - Khanisari
5:00 Chelmsford -Swissal
5:00 Chelmsford - No Diggity
 
Day 34

4:40 Warwick - Blacko - 5/6, 4.25, 2.37
4:40 Warwick - Rowland Ward - 3/6, 11.59, 4.77

Day 35

2:10 Wincanton - Head To The Stars - P/14, 45.98, 12.85
3:20 Wincanton - Coningsby - P/16, 38.82, 5.85
3:42 Ffos Las - Astra Via - P/9, 11.25, 2.90
4:15 Ffos Las - Khanisari - 7/13, 19.05, 5.77
5:00 Chelmsford - Swissal - 2/9, 20.95, 4.23
5:00 Chelmsford - No Diggity - 7/9, 15.73, 4.12
Total selections = 132 (no place market for 1 selection)

Win (LSP = +0.42, A/E = 0.94, SR = 11%, median price = 11.52)
Place (LSP = +5.89, A/E = 0.88, SR = 29%, median price = 3.36)
 
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Day 36

2:40 Musselburgh - Monsieur Co - 5/9, 14.30, 3.19
2:55 Sandown - Alnadam - 1/10, 3.80, 1.85
2:55 Sandown - Gardefort - 3/10, 9.55, 3.19

3:00 Wetherby - Multellie - void
4:19 Musselburgh - Senor Lombardy - 4/13, 17.41, 2.89
4:19 Musselburgh - West Torr - P/13, 243.15, 17.51
Total selections = 137 (no place market for 1 selection)

Win (LSP = -0.78, A/E = 0.97, SR = 12%, median price = 11.59)
Place (LSP = +5.93, A/E = 0.89, SR = 29%, median price = 3.29)
 
Day 37

2:15 Naas - Paris Texas - 10/14, 106.12, 15.47
3:10 Lingfield - Capla Crusader - 6/10, 4.79, 1.84
Total selections = 139 (no place market for 1 selection)

Win (LSP = -2.78, A/E = 0.96, SR = 12%, median price = 11.59)
Place (LSP = +3.93, A/E = 0.88, SR = 29%, median price = 3.29)
 
Day 38

1:10 Lingfield - Okhotsk
3:05 Thurles - Inviction
3:05 Thurles - Mammy Shark
3:15 Lingfield - Bailarico
4:20 Lingfield - Midnights Gift
4:25 Wolverhampton- Red Stripes
4:50 Lingfield - Strong Glance
 
Day 38

1:10 Lingfield - Okhotsk - 2/8, 5.04, 1.37
3:05 Thurles - Inviction - 8/15, 18.29, 4.23
3:05 Thurles - Mammy Shark - 4/15, 227.34, 28.55
3:15 Lingfield - Bailarico - 1/14, 8.02, 2.63
4:20 Lingfield - Midnights Gift - 2/9, 3.50, 1.49
4:25 Wolverhampton- Red Stripes - 3/10, 30.70, 4.25
4:50 Lingfield - Strong Glance - 1/7, 2.25, 1.15
Total selections = 146 (no place market for 1 selection)

Win (LSP = +0.49 A/E = 1.01, SR = 12%, median price = 11.52)
Place (LSP = +7.82, A/E = 0.93, SR = 31%, median price = 3.28)
 
Will update yesterday’s results later.

Day 40

1:45 Wolverhampton - Windsorlot
1:55 Hereford - Simply True
3:25 Dundalk - Chief Of Police
3:42 Wetherby - Pressure Sensitive
5:45 Kempton - Beauty Stone
7:20 Kempton - Stormbomber
 
I feel one of the interesting aspects about using systems is that sometimes they will force us to back a horse which left to our own devices we would have considered but swerved, and sometimes this type produce some of the systems best priced winners. I have an uncomfortable feeling that there is something worthwhile to be learned from this. ?
 
I agree mick mick (although it can work both ways - horses you fancy get excluded and beat your selection).
I sometimes look at a race that's produced a qualifier in more detail to try and see if the systemic exclusions of other horses are ones I would individually justify. Sometimes I might, sometimes I wouldn't, sometimes I wouldn't and the system proves itself right in that instance.
 
Thank you mick mick, greyabbey newcomer

I agree, Mick, I would love to have a system that will prove profitable long term. Although I really enjoy reading a race, I don’t like the stress of making a decision whether to bet or not, having a winning system will get rid of that problem. I am not sure if I will still feel confident backing a system selection though, it will have to prove profitable over a large number of selections, this one has a long way to go before I will consider backing these.
 
Day 39

5:40 Newcastle - Big Muddy - 7/8, 42.02, 2.27

Day 40

1:45 Wolverhampton - Windsorlot - 8/13, 11.45, 3.42
1:55 Hereford - Simply True - P/14, 23.36, 7.50
3:25 Dundalk - Chief Of Police - 6/14, 22.85, 5.03
3:42 Wetherby - Pressure Sensitive - 1/5, 1.90, 1.10
5:45 Kempton - Beauty Stone - 1/9, 4.23, 1.70

7:20 Kempton - Stormbomber - 2/9, 5.20, 1.76
Total selections = 153 (no place market for 1 selection)

Win (LSP = -0.38, A/E = 1.06, SR = 13%, median price = 11.45)
Place (LSP = +5.38, A/E = 0.93, SR = 32%, median price = 3.28)

I messed up the quotes above so results appear in different parts.
 
Day 41

3:20 Kelso - Vision Du Poy
3:50 Kelso - Eclair Dainey
4:22 Kelso - Kalabaloo
4:52 Kelso - Lakota Warrior
5:15 Southwell - Naval Officer
5:45 Southwell - Mack The Knife
 
Is your system recordable/measurable on something like Horseracebase or Geegeez?
Hi greyabbey newcomer, no it would not be possible to that as I am using a number of different variables that can vary from day to day, so it’s not possible to backtest this. That’s why I said to one of earlier questions from someone that this is not a system in true sense of the word.
 
Day 41

3:20 Kelso - Vision Du Poy - 4/7, 5.75, 3.00
3:50 Kelso - Eclair Dainey - 1/6, 3.59, 1.97
4:22 Kelso - Kalabaloo - 4/10, 1.95, 1.29
4:52 Kelso - Lakota Warrior - 6/9, 1.98, 1.20
5:15 Southwell - Naval Officer - 8/9, 6.51, 2.31
5:45 Southwell - Mack The Knife - 1/12, 2.19, 1.42
Total selections = 159 (no place market for 1 selection)

Win (LSP = -0.60, A/E = 1.05, SR = 14%, median price = 11.25)
Place (LSP = +2.77, A/E = 0.91, SR = 32%, median price = 3.13)
 
Day 42

2:30 Fairyhouse - Fantasia Roque
4:00 Fairyhouse - Gipsi Joe
4:30 Fairyhouse - Ben Thomson
5:10 Wolverhampton - Spartan Fighter
5:40 Wolverhampton - Angel Mill
6:40 Wolverhampton - Eponina
7:40 Wolverhampton - International Law
 
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