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System attic

Jackform said:
Chesham Chesham, this thread is only meant to be light-hearted offering some of the ancient stuff others may never have seen. Regarding the Silver Lining I think I wrote the foreword to that for Peachy (my initials are A C - but don't tell anyone :hunter:).
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It was a Lee Type Bet on Hajaam, you were iin good company with Pat Power in that Booklet.
 
It was a shame that Lee did not write a article in the Silver Lining as I find his take on VDW to be sound. I have posted most of Lee’s Pre Race bets that he mentioned on various threads

This is another from the Thred that I mentioned and you have access to the Form Ratings that are on the Class Sheet

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Returning to staking; this is one from VDW in a sports forum letter dated March 23, 1978. I tested it along with several others and it came out best for profit but it can wrack up the losses on an extended losing run, which is never a good proposition:

"I view the the question of staking not from the point of enhancing profits but to show a profit. Stakes are increased by one point each bet until the debit is reduced to zero. However, stakes should not exceed the debit by more than one point. A winning bet has one point deducted (profit required)."

Staking plan example.
stake/result/won.lost/aim/debit
1 Lost -1 -1 2
2 Lost -2 -1 5
3 Lost -3 -1 9
4 2/1 +8 -1 2
3 Lost -3 -1 6
4 Lost -4 -1 11
5 3/1 +15 -1 0

Result: 23 won - 13 lost = 10 profit
 
VDW short odds selection system.

Chl 12.40 Apple's Shakira (1/7 won)
Dnc 1.30 Sceau Royal (1/2 won)
and what about Dnc 2.40 Maria's Benefit (10/11 won)
 
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In November 2000 Tony Peach started a monthly mag entitled Racing Titbits and this is an extract from it. Another approach along the lines of 'narrowing the field' as advised by VDW.

'Close Encounters of the 2nd Kind' by Philip Close.'
"I'd like to start by sing the basic formula fro selecting a short list of 2, 3 or 4 horse, which I outline in 'Close Encounters of the VDW Kind'. That is atke
taking the first 6 in the betting then using the speed and rating figures from the Raceform Update and racing post and starring the top 3 in each category.
Example:
Speed/Speed/Rating/Rating
109* - 74 - 119* - 127* Winter Romance
97 - 62 - 104 - 109 Sacho
115*- 89* - 115 - 119 Sandmoor Chambray
103 - 80* - 122* - 129* Weet-A-Minute
112*- 77* - 118* - 122* Ghataas
98 - 63 - 106 - 119 River Usk

Horses with 2 stars or more, one of which must be a ratings star, are short listed. In this case Winter Romance, Weet-A-Minute and Ghataas. Ghataas being the winner at 6/1.
From a short list of three how would you decide what to back? What should be our next step, or steps?"

Comment: Rather than taking the first 6 in the betting I would consider the Racing Post betting forecast. Instead of the Raceform Update figure from the PatternForm time column and the Daily Mail Formcast ratings could be employed.
 
Racing Titbits January 2001 - Close Encounters of the 2nd Kind by Philip Close. An article following on from the November issue.

"But of course there is always at least three horses in the shortlist and it is trapping plenty of winners. However, when we arrive at the list there is still plenty of work to be done. Let's try to develop our method further by introducing other pertinent factors such as - trainer form wins-placed-unplaced, class rating by prize money, class last run, distance and going as well as taking on board any race readers comments that are relevant.

In the Thomas Ping at Cheltenham on Nov 11 the 3 shortlisted horses were:

Name of horse: Trainer/Class/Class LTO/Going/Distance
Lady Cricket - 9/8/17 - 155 - 667/8th - OK - OK
Exit Swinger - 9/8/17 -93 - 175/1st - Soft - OK
Village King - 10//6/15 - 46 - 667/0 - GS - OK

All trainer form is OK, as well as distance and going. Lady Cricket Class LTO is the best buts a finishing position of 8th beaten 52L renders this meaningless. Village King's class rating is poor by comparison and after a first time out victory last season he tailed off badly. He may have lost his way but good morning money for him makes him the steamer and there must be confidence behind him. He looks at best an each-way bet and it would probably be wiser to wait for some kind of return to form before he is supported. Of the two Pipe horses Lady Cricket is higher rated then Exit Swinger in the three of the four rating categories and is the choice of the stable jockey AP McCoy. Going and distance are no problem and Lady Cricket stands out for this.
Winner - Lady Cricket 5/1

Remember we are trying to construct a method that would be easy to employ that could be used to analyse any of our qualifying races."
 
Chesham Chesham, I don't know anything about him except for these couple of pieces in the mag. In fact these were the only two although it was promoted as a series. The mag folded after 14 months even with articles from Ken Hussey, Philip Alexander and Bryan Cottam from the old Sporting Chron
 
Jackform said:
Chesham Chesham, I don't know anything about him except for these couple of pieces in the mag. In fact these were the only two although it was promoted as a series. The mag folded after 14 months even with articles from Ken Hussey, Philip Alexander and Bryan Cottam from the old Sporting Chron
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Hi Jackform Jackform

Philip Close wrote a Booklet Published by Tony Peach

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I had this letter published in the Raceform Update Forum Page

‘At the time of writing, I have just read `Close Encounters of the VDW Kind`. The author may find the the analysis of race 4148 enlightening and increase profitability of his selection method. I would ask the question why move from the original platform?.By coincidence, race 4148 was the next engagement for Stanton Harcourt. To save space, I have reduced the original field to the main contenders.

Race 4148 (Class 135) One Mile Handicap, Doncaster Sept 13th 1997.

Horses : Restructure, Stanton Harcourt, Yorkie George, Jo Mell, Al Azhar, Russian Music, Pomona.

Previous Race & Distance : Restructure (98/7f) Stanto Harcourt (171/1m) Yorkie George (482/6f) Jo Mell (235/7f202yds) Al Azhar (97/1m1f) Russian Music (235/7f202yds) Pomona (47/1m)

Restructure, Al Azhar and Pomona can be discarded as they are all raised in class. Pomona achieved a decent speed figure last time, but note the course was Windsor Doncaster is a different proposition.
Yorkie George ran in the highest class, but could only finish 17th, hardly the kind of form to win this race.Jo Mell ran in the same race as Russian Music and is not weighted to reverse the placing.
Stanton Harcourt is again dropping in class, but showed a downturn in form judged by the speed figure achieved. Also has not raced for 55 days.Why?

In race 3051 (class 123) Russian Music recorded a SF of 51. Next pushed up in class to 225, recorded a season best of 78, giving an indication that the horse is being primed to win.Now being dropped in class for this race and set to carry 1lb less having shown improved form and is shown to be a probable winner in the race.

Result Russin Music won 8/1.”

I’m have just realised that Lee seems to use this approach, although at the time I had no knowledge of Lee’s Work
 
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Trying to get away from VDW for a while I came across this from Bryan Cottam in the first edition of Racing Titbits, November 2000 (over 17 years ago). I recall reading the original letter about the system discussed In the old SCHB sports form, and that ceased publication mid-July 1983 (so the original letter was over 35 years ago).The point of all that is when you have read the system somebody might like to check if it is still practicable nowadays.
The original letter was from a Mr J Webley of Newport, regarding his Owner/Trainer system, which was throwing up some big-priced winners.

"Some simple rules were drawn up, which were as follows:
1. All races qualify up to 14 runners maximum.
2. If two qualifiers in any one race, divide stakes. No bet if more than two.
3. The trainer must be the owner or related, both having the same surname.
4. The horse must have raced within the last 30 days and must be at least 4/1 in the betting prior to the race.

However (from Bryan Cottam)
The rules are flexible depending on how the punter decides to operate the method. The problem was that some days there were too many qualifiers to handle and there were plenty of losers so it is all about sorting the wheat from the chaff, even though some good price winners slip through the net in the process. Personally I would only keep to races with ONE qualifier as this drastically cuts down the number of bets. Do not eliminate a horse just because it is the only one trained by a permit holder. Remember Nortons Coin produced to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup 1990 at 100/1.
 
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