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sussex stakes

T

tacker

Dam
SISKIN fav which surprisers me, his irish 2,000gns win was good but was up to the english equivalent ? I doubt it and without bothering to go into all the formlines i believe the collateral form supports the case for KAMEKO.

MOHAATHER was very unlucky at ascot and impressive back there in a group 2, might be good enough but the bare form isn't.

WICHITA has done little wrong and is held by KAMEKO but should be there abouts.

VATICAN CITY was beaten by SISKIN but didn't get the clearest of runs, has since run in the derby but i would ignore that and so could go well.

CIRCUS MAXIMUS not good enough for me along with SON DONATO.

Conclusion...KAMEKO is the form horse imo and the 11/2 is quite generously priced.
 
Chesham Chesham Yes i very much agree, the speed figures demonstrate MOHAATHER could be best horse here but the bare form doesn't support the claim imo, funny enough until i took another look, mohaather was my original choice and there's every chance i've got this wrong.
I'm guessing most of us on here don't get to see TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother speed ratings now but Simon Rowlands talks about Mohaathers " ELECTRFYING LATE SPLITS" so again everything points to MO.
One worry i have is who will make the running ?
There's a danger that the race will turn into a sprint and mess the race up.
There's so much to be discussed about this race.
 
tacker said:
Chesham Chesham Yes i very much agree, the speed figures demonstrate MOHAATHER could be best horse here but the bare form doesn't support the claim imo, funny enough until i took another look, mohaather was my original choice and there's every chance i've got this wrong.
I'm guessing most of us on here don't get to see TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother speed ratings now but Simon Rowlands talks about Mohaathers " ELECTRFYING LATE SPLITS" so again everything points to MO.
One worry i have is who will make the running ?
There's a danger that the race will turn into a sprint and mess the race up.
There's so much to be discussed about this race.
Click to expand...
TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother publishes his speed ratings for all to see Compiling Speed figures.

You can view TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother Speed Figs on the Class Sheets. Click on the Form Sheet and TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother Figs are in the TBB Column (You have Inner Sanctum access)

Mohaather = 93 and Kameko = 78

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Chesham Chesham
Thanks for your efforts and these numbers need plenty of interpreting, clearly many experts think MOHAATHER[S speed numbers were a bit special but to my untrained eye the st james palace stakes had similar numbers, add to that horses in behind MOH were a little short of top class and therefore flatter the performance on the eye.
The truth is that for me there is little in this race today who knows what games O'brien will get up to but if either PALACE PIER or KHALOOSY might have been my choice if they were here.
good luck.
 
tacker said:
Chesham Chesham
Thanks for your efforts and these numbers need plenty of interpreting, clearly many experts think MOHAATHER[S speed numbers were a bit special but to my untrained eye the st james palace stakes had similar numbers, add to that horses in behind MOH were a little short of top class and therefore flatter the performance on the eye.
The truth is that for me there is little in this race today who knows what games O'brien will get up to but if either PALACE PIER or KHALOOSY might have been my choice if they were here.
good luck.
Click to expand...
You are leaving the race alone then ?
 
SUSSEX STAKES.
14 years of data

14-14 WINNERS HAD RUN IN A GROUP 1
Only 11 horses hadn't run in a Group1 but none of them placed.

14-14 WINNERS HAD WON OVER DISTANCES BETWEEN 7F AND 8.5F BUT NO FURTHER.
Those that hadn't have returned 0-17 with just two places.

14-14 WINNERS HAD PLACED IN THE FIRST THREE LAST TIME.
Those that hadnt returned 0-39 with three places

14-14 WINNERS LAST RACE WAS BETWEEN 8F-10F
Those that hadn't returned 0-17 with four places.

Combining all four trends has found all 14 winners from 37 selections and achieved a profit of 27 points.

Siskin, Mohaather and Wichita are this years qualifiers.

What price would Pinatubo be if he run in this? He would be short possibly first or second favourite. Yet, a horse that finished a head behind him last time in a key race, St James Palace, is sitting around 7/1. In the last 22 years,nine winners of this have come from the St James Palace and Wichita comes from that race. He has been beaten less than 1.5ls combined in two Group 1s this season. The form of the St James Palace is rock solid with Pinatubo winning the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat. Aidan O Brien has won this five times, all 3yos. Every one run a in a Group 1 last time.

Siskin is going to find Goodwood quite alien after spending every race bar one on the Curragh. Every winner of the Sussex Stakes in the last 22 years had had a race in the UK. The last horse to win this race from stall 1 or 2 was in 2007 and before that was in 2001.

Mohaather has to give 8lbs WFA and with 3yos responisble for 13 of the last 22 renewals it looks a tough ask. The last 4yo to win this was Frankel but is possible for older horses to win as they have won three of the last five. He is by Showcasing whose progeny don't convince me at this level.

Conclusion: The winner is most likely to come from the trends but Wichita is 4lbs better than Siskin according to Timeform and 1lb better than Mohaather, without WFA, and he is too big a price, Whatever wins though it is set to be a cracker.
 
Have my head in different place right now and had overlooked the continuing WFA at this time of year - Mark Johston qouted the the other 3 year olds WFA - make them unbeatable in correct class - 3yr olds getting 8lb against 4yrs today

1596011632434.png

1596011536763.png

I would not back Against Siskin - Ii fact I would not back against 3yr at the moment
 
TheBluesBrother said:
To me, Siskin is an enigma, his speed figures do not match the hype.

Looking at my class figures I have Siskin 13lb inferior to Mohaather, we will learn a lot today about Siskin, this is a proper race...

Mohaather - 106
Siskin - 93

View attachment 86719

Mike.
Click to expand...
If you have speed figures as your guide then this is a race you are interested in because Siskin is taking out nearly 30% of the market and hasn’t ever ran to a high speed figure, on the face of it Kameko and Wichita look overpriced, but every time I think about betting I have a vision of Siskin sprinting past them.
Siskin hasn’t had a chance to run fast yet because he has just quickened past in slower run races, there is no saying he isn’t capable of staying in the comfort zone at a faster pace, lm gonna leave the race for betting but think Siskin might do it.
 
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