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Staying ?

T

tacker

Dam
Quite often we use terminology in horse racing that those outside our little clique don't fully understand and it's when you find yourself trying to explain what we mean when we trot out phrases like "didn't stay" to people that aren't au fait with racing's everyday use of words that it makes you think again what you really understand about the logic behind the words, this week i have had two similar discussions with people that don't delve too deeply into form/racing etc.

I mention this now because twice this week i believe i've tipped/backed two horses that i felt didn't stay/ get home, one was MONSEIUR KODI and the other was MACHETE BEACH who is where i'll concentrate on just to note that he was well backed yesterday including me but folded tamely at newc 1m 4f .98yd (time 2m 43 68s) his previous run was kemp he ran over 1m 3f .219yds where he took 2m 33.54s while the newc race saw him racing for about 10secs longer yet in my mind both races were over 12f. The point being here imo is i am guilty of ignoring these slight differences in distance even though i am fully aware of just how much "pace" is a huge factor in so many ways which is a much wider discussion.
So i think what i'm suggesting is that with all manner of caveats it's how long a horse is racing in terms of time that matters rather than a simplistic doesn't get 12f or whatever, i suspect both horses mentioned might drop back in distance in the near future.
 
I think one thing that always stuck with me from young age is 7fur is specialist distance as sprinters dont get it and milers are little slower and that is only one furlong differance either way , so for sure they all run at 5fur to what ever but its what class they are at certain differances.
Take frankel for instance cecil said would have run well in a july cup with its speed yet was likely best at mile.
Infact you could say possibly unbeatable against any generation at mile.
But go mile and half and it blunts its speed to keep going, so i think every horse is best at what it does its best form on and surely they are differant class at differant distances.
Take monsieur kodi for instance would think on breeding would get 7fur , yet run 32 times and never even tried it suppose that was the give away they new it just dosnt get it. But they thought dropping in class it might just get away with it and it always carries big weights but just failed and looks like a horse stepping up in class at 6fur with slightly less weight will suit again loves soft and likes easy tracks.
 
First of all gerry gerry thanks for the reply and just to focus on one of your points above for instance Frankel ?
I would agree with you that his best distance was probably 8f but let's not forget he won the Juddmonte 10.5 f and from what i saw that day it's very likely he would have won over 12f but we'll never know, obviously it's not all about the distance it must also be about the opposition on the day and imo as good as Frankel was he perhaps dominated in an era where the opposition wasn't that great but clearly such opinions are subjective. If we think back to a horse like HAWK WING ? Unlucky in the 2000gns and was perceived by many to have failed to stay in the derby but while i might agree he didn't run to his very best over that 12f to say he didn't "stay" his a misnomer imo, i say that because if you were to take HIGH CHAPARRAL out of the race he might have been likened to a derby winner like SHERGAR given how far back the 3rd & 4th were, truth is CHAPARRAL was a very good horse at that distance but HAWK WING looked to be ready to go past him around 2f pole but couldn't quite do it although i think it's worth noting that HW certainly didn't fall into a hole.

 
You get horse that need a certain type of 5f even, to do with the time as much as the distance, there are horses that excel at the likes of Lingfield Turf 5f and Ffos Las 5f two of the fastest courses where the standard time would be around 56 seconds or Epsom 5f where it’s even faster , then we have the 5f horses that like Pontefract and Beverley because it takes 61 seconds, the 5 seconds makes a difference, then the going that makes a different a horse that like to run in 56 second races if the ground is soft then that 56 second track can turn into a 59+ second track.
Picking winners is too complicated, that’s why I haven’t picked one since about 1991.
 
They all stay to some degree, going 0.5 seconds too fast in an earlier sectional could mean you don’t get home and weaken dramatically, does that mean the horse doesn’t stay or does it mean the circumstances of the race or the jockeys judgement was more to blame , even in one race there are 100s of things to do with pace, pressure , jockey, position , horse not settling that will mean a horse won’t finish its race, probably doesn’t mean it won’t ever stay the same distance In the future.
Horse do almost certainly have an optimum distance/time/going but most will be retired before you could work it out to perfection, and other horse being a bit more versatile would make it a futile task trying to work it all out.
 
Whatever rubbish era Frankel was dominating in , there is evidence from times that he was a geniune superstar, there are really good horses then add about 10lb and you have Frankel, the only horse that has got anywhere near him for true merit was the US horse Flightline who put up some ridiculous performances but that was on dirt.
 
Age Course and Distance must be the biggest factors - we can work out “Pars” for all - which should indicate if horse can achieve the req effort - can it beat the others is another question or should that be - will it be allowed too on any given day.

Frankel - a super star but that’s where the handicap comes in - there are “ Stars” in all divisions
 
Outlander said:
Whatever rubbish era Frankel was dominating in , there is evidence from times that he was a geniune superstar, there are really good horses then add about 10lb and you have Frankel, the only horse that has got anywhere near him for true merit was the US horse Flightline who put up some ridiculous performances but that was on dirt.
Click to expand...
FRANKEL was certainly one of the best ever and it's a pointless exercise trying to determine who might be the greatest ever but without the use of times etc i believe were left with the idea that whichever era a horse proves itself in it is the standard of those behind that helps directs us to a particular view and for me SEA BIRD had some great horses finish behind him and he beat them with pounds to spare.
In many ways it comes down to your own timescale and many would argue for RIBOT or DANCING BRAVE and that's based on horses that raced between 8f - 12f.
 
tacker said:
FRANKEL was certainly one of the best ever and it's a pointless exercise trying to determine who might be the greatest ever but without the use of times etc i believe were left with the idea that whichever era a horse proves itself in it is the standard of those behind that helps directs us to a particular view and for me SEA BIRD had some great horses finish behind him and he beat them with pounds to spare.
In many ways it comes down to your own timescale and many would argue for RIBOT or DANCING BRAVE and that's based on horses that raced between 8f - 12f.
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I never understood the Dancing Brave hype, maybe it was the nice name.
We had a better horse than him win the Arc last year.
 
Outlander said:
I never understood the Dancing Brave hype, maybe it was the nice name.
We had a better horse than him win the Arc last year.
Click to expand...
To be fair to DANCING BRAVE it was a very good arc and i'm not sure if it was the camera angle or not but he appeared to flash past them at the finish, we had a contact in the Lady Herries stable that worked their horses at pulborough and there were many there that felt he wouldn't "stay" 12f hence jockey tactics that helped get him beat in the derby, starkey got all the blame which was unfair imo.
 
He was a very good horse but he was beating Tryptych a few lengths, nothing out of the ordinary, Mtoto did just as much and he’s not heralded as one of the greatest.
 
To be fair swinburn stole that derby with out relizing it i think, when he kicked sharastani on clear and dancing brave was last turning in.
 
Outlander said:
They all stay to some degree, going 0.5 seconds too fast in an earlier sectional could mean you don’t get home and weaken dramatically, does that mean the horse doesn’t stay or does it mean the circumstances of the race or the jockeys judgement was more to blame , even in one race there are 100s of things to do with pace, pressure , jockey, position , horse not settling that will mean a horse won’t finish its race, probably doesn’t mean it won’t ever stay the same distance In the future.
Horse do almost certainly have an optimum distance/time/going but most will be retired before you could work it out to perfection, and other horse being a bit more versatile would make it a futile task trying to work it all out.
Click to expand...

StandardTimes.xls

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