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Statting Island

mlmrob said:
FIRTH OF THE CLYDE 3.00 MARKET RASEN

Malcolm Jefferson has had 28 runners in the last month and 8 have won. However, those that started at 4/1 or less and were ridden by Brian Hughes improved the record to 6-12. Since January 1st their record reads; 311113.

Firth Of The Clyde beat Tahiti Pearl and Alpha One last time and both have franked the form, Tahiti Pearl finishing second twice off marks 3lbs and 5lbs higher and Alpha One was second off the same mark. The fifth home, Granville Island has also won. Previously second to Definite Dream in bottomless ground at Carlisle Firth Of Clyde should go on the heavy. Lightly raced for a 9yo, he looks a typical Jefferson slow burner.

Upetito beat Upsilon Bleu 28ls in an AQPS race when last seen. Upsilon Bleu is rated in the mid 130s now so he could be feasibly handicapped off 129 but he’s been off a long time. Venetia is 3-35 in handicap chases here. She did saddle Mudita Moment to win after 18 months off on his first run for her but she is 0-4, none placed with French Breds. In fact her record of 4-86 with French breds on their UK debut for her is very off putting.

Charlie Longsdon is 8-34 in handicap chases at Market Rasen so the chance of Munsaab has to be taken seriously. He has only had two chase starts and showed nothing but he is sure to strip fitter today. Though he has won on soft he has never placed in six runs on heavy ground. He is 0-7 in fields of 12 or less runners.

Flaming Gorge is the only other one with a chance as he has conditions to suit. He is 5lbs higher than his last win, though he is on the same mark when winning a novice for Paul Nicholls. Flaming Gorge has never beaten a horse with a higher rating than him. Fleur Hawes doesn’t have many in her yard but they do run their race.

Conclusion: Firth Of The Clyde is 7lbs higher than his win last time but the exploits of Tahiti Pearl have suggested that won’t be enough to stop him. He has had a nice rest, record when returning between 1-2 months off reads 2261. Jack The Gent and Great Oak will make the pace and he should just be able to hack round at the back for a circuit and pick them off late on.
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Hi Rob

Another excellent analysis from you, and a well deserved result.

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Have been snowed under recently and haven't as much time as I would like on the forum.
Its good to see that some things don't change, well done Rob!
 
Top Man Rob...

BX2ps4w.png
 
In the 4.30 at Wolverhampton today there has been a huge gamble on Catalyze. Nothing unusual there.

Have a look who 'owns' Catalyze and the other horses they 'own'. Now take a look who used to own the horses belonging to Pallet and Recycling Ltd.

Pallet and Recycling Ltd don't own those horses they lease them.

Whose money is it?

I think you can guess.
 
Hi Rob
Ann Stokels yard inherited a sudden influx of horses from another yard which I think lost its lease. Her Strike rate has recently doubled LOL

Good Luck

Chesham
 
Last edited:
He had 21 horses with Violet Jordan and sent the lot to Ann Stokell. Ann Stokell didn't have enough licensed boxes hence the Brown Pete affair the other week. Even though he is 'warned off' for three months, he still owns the horses and leases them.
 
The same owners as todays runner

DANIEL THOMAS (IRE) confirmed previous promise to come out on top on first outing since leaving Violet M. Jordan

This horse when it last won was owned by Rakebackmypoker.com
 
HALKIRK 4.15 CATTERICK

Halkirk represents a stable who are 10-32 in bumpers at Catterick, 5-9 on their racecourse debut. That improves to 8-17 when they are in the first two of the betting and 3-3 when making their racecourse debut. Alan Swinbank has only ever had three runners in this race and two won on their racecourse debut. The other finished second on their third public appearance. Halkirk is by Nayef who is 5-14 with his progeny in bumpers on their debut in the UK. Alan Swinbank has trained two of those; Royal Riviera won first time out and Blue Blooded who was third to Bygones Of Brid. Halkirk holds three entries this week so it is interesting he comes here where his trainer has an excellent record. Conor Shoemark travels north for just the one ride, his first for Alan Swinbank.
 
MIDNIGHT CHARMER 3.30 FAKENHAM

Midnight Charmer probably run his best race in defeat last time when beaten 3.5ls into third by Free World in a 0-105. Free World has since placed, btn 2.5ls, off 5lbs higher in a 0-120 behind Chicklemix who was winning his second race in a row and the fifth home has won a 0-95 by 10ls. Midnight Charmer is 12lbs higher than when he won over course and distance in October but this is a bad race and his main rivals have question marks about them.

Cruising Bye has improved in his second stint at Peter Bowen and the hood looks to have brought about that improvement. He has won two of his four races in the headgear and doesn’t have many miles on the clock, this is only his third chase start. He beat Saroque last time who has subsequently won. However, he has to carry 11-9 today compared to 10-6 and 10-8 in his previous victories. He struggled in a handicap hurdle at Exeter with 11-10 two runs back. He got outpaced over this distance last time but rallied to win his race but that was more down to the horses in front stopping. Peter Bowen is 3-20 in handicap chases here, last two have won.

Full Ov Beans won 57ls here last time but that doesn’t tell the full story. Favourite Upton Mead refused at the first and King Ozzy fell at the second leaving three runners. Zhukov wasn’t on a going day and Minella Ranger finished second by default when Zhukov decided to walk home. Fullovbeans has picked up a 7lbs penalty for what was a walkover. He is 0-10 off marks above 90 though he is 2-3 at Fakenham.

Bill The Lad beat Carli King at Towcester in December and that horse franked the form by winning the worst ever 0-100 at Leicester. Bill The Lad then followed up with a third to Le Grand Chene at Towcester on Boxing Day. Paul Cowley has just had two winners from 130 runners under rules.

Goring Two hasn’t won for two years and is still 5lbs higher than that mark.

Got Attitude has his third race for Tony Carroll but he hasn’t won for over three years and he is 0-6, never placed in single figure fields.

Phoenix Des Mottes wins in his turn, usually every two years.

Conclusion: The morning prices suggest that just four hold any sort of chance here. Fullovbeans can be discounted as he doesn’t win off this sort of mark. With Got Attitude, Phoenix Des Mottes, Goring Two and Bill The Lad all liking to race prominently, they should set this up for Cruising Bye and Midnight Charmer. I’m not convinced with Cruising Bye’s win last time and with an extra 15lbs in the saddle, admittedly this is much weaker, he may well not get home. Midnight Charmer is proven in the conditions, will have this run to suit and looks the one to beat.
 
Held up in touch, headway to chase leaders 10th, went 2nd 4 out, challenged from 2 out, just under 1 length down and every chance when fell last
Would it or wouldn't it?
Great analysis Rob just a shame the obstacles get in the way now and then.
 
Name of
dicko14 said:
Held up in touch, headway to chase leaders 10th, went 2nd 4 out, challenged from 2 out, just under 1 length down and every chance when fell last
Would it or wouldn't it?
Great analysis Rob just a shame the obstacles get in the way now and then.
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Name of the game Dicko:cool:
 
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