B
BecomeRichasap, I noted the
hedgehog comments in passing and have to say I know nothing about football betting. However, years ago I did have a guy inquire if I thought something like the VDW 5racing system of narrowing the field could be used with it.? He sent me the followingfootball betting plan that
i have never checked out as at first glance I couldn't see how it would work - but it might still be of interest:
MULTIPLE BETTING BANKS
It may come hard to dedicated form students, but the simple fact is multiple banking works regardless of the number of runners covered, form is meaningless. If it was not for the logistical problems you could back every runner in every race and still profit. Very few listen let alone understand!
When employing retrieve staking the biggest mistake made is to attempt to retrieve all losses. Look at the facts, if you are anywhere near competent you ought to be able to identify a selection method that if combined with level stakes would provide no worse than a 10% loss. Just backing favourites forecast between Evens and 2/1 should provide that. Consider that, long term for every 100 points the expected loss is about 10, so why is it necessary to retrieve every point lost at once – it isn’t!
There is the problem of the losing run, but with a reasonable size bank we know it is not all going to be lost often. Months could go by without a losing run that will break the bank, although eventually one will arise. How is that to be dealt with?
Simple, spread the risk to cover more than one horse. If the risk of a losing run is small with one bank. How much smaller is the risk of a losing run in two banks, or three, or four banks at the same time? If losses start to creep up share the losses with the other banks and that will reduce the stakes in any one bank, at the same time increasing chances of finding a winner.
For example, two banks were run on a racing campaign. The average price for bank A 6/4 and B 5/2. Bank A had a losing run of nine bets yet overall there is a small profit. If one bank had been used with a normal retrieve staking plan there would have been a loss, but using two banks to spread the risk makes the campaign profitable.
In the European football championship three banks were used, one for each outcome – home win, draw, away win and a fourth bank, referred to as the profit bank. Of the three working banks two of them are always in deficit and they show a nett loss between them. The profit comes from the profit bank.
Each match one of your banks has to achieve the aim owing to the fact that one of the three results has to transpire. The aim for the campaign was £20 from a £500 bank. Each match one bank achieved the aim, and about 80% of the time a little of the previous losses. £20 won goes into the profit bank and any remainder comes off the previous losses of the bank that had the winner.
After 25 matches you are guaranteed a profit because 25 x 20 = £500. From that point on any returns added to the profit bank are guaranteed nett profit. The idea is to keep the three working banks balanced by spreading the risk. Although they are always negative they still have enough in them to provide stakes to produce profit in the profits bank.
It is trickier with horse racing as you do not have a guaranteed winner each time. One way round this is to concentrate on small fields (one bank per outcome); another is to look in areas where the odds compensate.
If you backed the first four in the betting in handicap races with ten runners or less, your expected strike-rate would be about 70% with better odds of about 3/1 on the favourite. This takes the pressure off as the four banks you are running are able to absorb the losses better.
Another way may be to back all the selections on VDWs narrowed field via the mechanical process advised. Yet again one bank per outcome where the odds again are likely to be better as the races are generally more competitive owing to the class of races concentrated on.
www.thestakingmachine.com
