Speed Test
- Thread starter mlmrob
- Start date
ArkRoyal
Administrator
This game is hard enough as it is without being misled by the bloody clerk of courses :naughty:TheBluesBrother said:If you look at the meeting at AYR today the official going was GOING: SOFT, HEAVY IN PLACES (8.4).
I just looked at the meeting and the actual going was on the slow side of good at -0.15s/f
Great input once again Mike.
mlmrob
Sire
Going Stick Archive
Ted Walsh said that there was no trace of soft or yielding in the ground at Galway last night. When someone pointed out to him that the first race was 7 seconds slower than last year he replied he wasn't bothered if it was half an hour slower.
He's a trainer and the winners over hurdles last night had soft ground form yet the ground was reported good. Hmmm
I see Mustajeeb was another winner from the Sir John Hawkins maiden and a figure of 70 suggests that was a good performance.
Code:
http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_stick_archive.htmlTed Walsh said that there was no trace of soft or yielding in the ground at Galway last night. When someone pointed out to him that the first race was 7 seconds slower than last year he replied he wasn't bothered if it was half an hour slower.
He's a trainer and the winners over hurdles last night had soft ground form yet the ground was reported good. Hmmm
I see Mustajeeb was another winner from the Sir John Hawkins maiden and a figure of 70 suggests that was a good performance.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
My going allowances for yesterdays meetings:
Ayr: -0.15s/f (good)
Wolverhampton: +0.43s/f (standard to fast)
Windsor: +0.34s/f (Good to firm)
Galway: -0.20s/f (good)
Ted Walsh was right, the going was on the slow side of good, just because the a race was run 7 seconds outside standard
does not mean the ground was soft, there are a host of variables to take into account i.e. slow pace and most important
of all, the class of the race.
The recent record for mis-information from Ireland regarding the going is held by Limerick where the official going was given one day as Soft
when it fact, it was on the fast side of good at +0.18s/f , only 76lb per furlong out
I spent 2 years working on the method and variables required for calculating going allowances, such as the going allowance tables which come in handy
especially on the All Weather where the official going is the majority of the time returned as standard
The going at Wolverhampton yesterday was super quick +0.43s/f and the official going was returned at standard, if you look at my
all-weather going allowance table the range is 120lbs+, the term standard going doesn't even come close, I have 5 categories covering the all-weather.
AW going allowance table:
Fast +0.50s/f
Stand/Fast +0.18s/f to +0.40s/f
Standard -0.15s/f to +0.15s/f
Stand/Slow -0.48s/f to -0.18s/f
Slow -0.70s/f to -0.50s/f
Time to get off my soapbox
Ayr: -0.15s/f (good)
Wolverhampton: +0.43s/f (standard to fast)
Windsor: +0.34s/f (Good to firm)
Galway: -0.20s/f (good)
Ted Walsh was right, the going was on the slow side of good, just because the a race was run 7 seconds outside standard
does not mean the ground was soft, there are a host of variables to take into account i.e. slow pace and most important
of all, the class of the race.
The recent record for mis-information from Ireland regarding the going is held by Limerick where the official going was given one day as Soft
when it fact, it was on the fast side of good at +0.18s/f , only 76lb per furlong out
I spent 2 years working on the method and variables required for calculating going allowances, such as the going allowance tables which come in handy
especially on the All Weather where the official going is the majority of the time returned as standard
The going at Wolverhampton yesterday was super quick +0.43s/f and the official going was returned at standard, if you look at my
all-weather going allowance table the range is 120lbs+, the term standard going doesn't even come close, I have 5 categories covering the all-weather.
AW going allowance table:
Fast +0.50s/f
Stand/Fast +0.18s/f to +0.40s/f
Standard -0.15s/f to +0.15s/f
Stand/Slow -0.48s/f to -0.18s/f
Slow -0.70s/f to -0.50s/f
Time to get off my soapbox
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Going allowances for 30/7/13.
Deauville: Turf-0.15s/f (good), AW -0.10s/f (standard)
Goodwood: -0.07s/f (good)
Beverley: +0.15s/f (good)
Yarmouth: +0.33s/f (good to firm)
Galway: 0.00s/f (good)
4.50 Goodwood Ascription +14
Ascription has improved that much since his gelding operation, the handicapper is sure to hike him up in the weights
Deauville: Turf-0.15s/f (good), AW -0.10s/f (standard)
Goodwood: -0.07s/f (good)
Beverley: +0.15s/f (good)
Yarmouth: +0.33s/f (good to firm)
Galway: 0.00s/f (good)
4.50 Goodwood Ascription +14
Ascription has improved that much since his gelding operation, the handicapper is sure to hike him up in the weights
TheBluesBrother
Dam
mlmrob said:I see you had Goodwood as good ground.The going stick reading is not available till 10am this morning. I wonder why.
If it was dry overnight at Goodwood you will see some races dip under standard, even Dave Edwards had the going yesterday at -0.08s/f (good) on the sprints,
and -0.16s/f (good) for the routes, there was no need for two going allowances looking at my figures, the ground was the same all over
You have to love the racing pundits they are like sheep, if the clerk of the course says it is soft, then soft it is
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Going allowances for 31/7/13.
Galway: -1.10s/f (heavy)
Goodwood: -0.03s/f (good)
Redcar: +0.33s/f (good to firm)
Sandown: -0.11s/f (good)
Leicester: straight 0.00s/f (good), round -0.20s/f (good)
The official going for Leicester was given as soft, if this was the case Michael Blanshard who in my book has to be the worst trainer
in the British Isles would have improved his winner Bajan Bear by +50, I don't think so
Hugh Taylor mentioned one day on At the Races, that at Leicester you can have two different going allowances on the same part of the racecourse, after yesterdays
meeting I have too agree with him, I struggled to make sense of the going
Peter Chapple-Hyam is back, and his 2yo winner at Sandown Voice Of A Leader didn't even get out of 2nd gear to earn a speed figure of 69,
I just cannot see any 2yo lowering his colours on his next run, he was that impressive
Morocco +6
Willow Beck +10
Running Deer +8
Galway: -1.10s/f (heavy)
Goodwood: -0.03s/f (good)
Redcar: +0.33s/f (good to firm)
Sandown: -0.11s/f (good)
Leicester: straight 0.00s/f (good), round -0.20s/f (good)
The official going for Leicester was given as soft, if this was the case Michael Blanshard who in my book has to be the worst trainer
in the British Isles would have improved his winner Bajan Bear by +50, I don't think so
Hugh Taylor mentioned one day on At the Races, that at Leicester you can have two different going allowances on the same part of the racecourse, after yesterdays
meeting I have too agree with him, I struggled to make sense of the going
Peter Chapple-Hyam is back, and his 2yo winner at Sandown Voice Of A Leader didn't even get out of 2nd gear to earn a speed figure of 69,
I just cannot see any 2yo lowering his colours on his next run, he was that impressive
Morocco +6
Willow Beck +10
Running Deer +8
mlmrob
Sire
I am following Captain Scooby at present and I am waiting for him to run over 5f on good to soft or soft, especially inside 5 days of his last run. He is very well handicapped at present but he was a ridiculous price last night. He is something like 1-29 over 6f and has never won on good ground, even though the Leicester executive would have you believe the going was slower. I just hope when it is Captain Scooby's day the going report is a tad more accurate.
The winner of that race last night had only ever won on good to firm and had never placed on good to soft or slower.
He is in at Thirsk on Saturday over 6f, Hamilton on Saturday over 5f and Carlisle on Monday over 6f.
He will be of definite interest at Hamilton if it turns up good to soft or soft as he is 3-5 over 5f under those conditions at the track.
The winner of that race last night had only ever won on good to firm and had never placed on good to soft or slower.
He is in at Thirsk on Saturday over 6f, Hamilton on Saturday over 5f and Carlisle on Monday over 6f.
He will be of definite interest at Hamilton if it turns up good to soft or soft as he is 3-5 over 5f under those conditions at the track.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
2.05 Naas 5/8/13.
One of the most serious 2yo's Great White Eagle trained by A P O'Brien and a recent purchase, costing the Coolmore mafia
760,000 guineas made his debut and he simply hacked up earning a speed figure of 72
The official going was given as YIELDING (Good to yielding in places) and if that was the case Great White Eagle (fast by 1.40s)
would have had a approx speed figure of around 143, a new world record
In the other 6f race Doonard Prince who has an official rating of 51 also ran a fast time (slow by 0.19s), so something was not right,
there is two possible causes here, the ground was riding faster than advertised or the 6f trip was shorter than advertised
Working out the going allowance for Naas, I ended up with allowances of +0.57s/f (Firm) for the 6f trip and +0.32s/f (good to firm)
for the 7f and 8f distances, both going allowances fitted in perfectly and produced speed figures which gave a true reflection on the days racecard
So in conclusion the official going at Naas was only 86lb per furlong out, but the good news is Great White Eagle goes to the top of the 2yo's to follow,
it is only a matter of time before he earns a speed figure in the 100's
One of the most serious 2yo's Great White Eagle trained by A P O'Brien and a recent purchase, costing the Coolmore mafia
760,000 guineas made his debut and he simply hacked up earning a speed figure of 72
The official going was given as YIELDING (Good to yielding in places) and if that was the case Great White Eagle (fast by 1.40s)
would have had a approx speed figure of around 143, a new world record
In the other 6f race Doonard Prince who has an official rating of 51 also ran a fast time (slow by 0.19s), so something was not right,
there is two possible causes here, the ground was riding faster than advertised or the 6f trip was shorter than advertised
Working out the going allowance for Naas, I ended up with allowances of +0.57s/f (Firm) for the 6f trip and +0.32s/f (good to firm)
for the 7f and 8f distances, both going allowances fitted in perfectly and produced speed figures which gave a true reflection on the days racecard
So in conclusion the official going at Naas was only 86lb per furlong out, but the good news is Great White Eagle goes to the top of the 2yo's to follow,
it is only a matter of time before he earns a speed figure in the 100's
Chesham
Sire
They paid a lot of money for this 6th foal from the dam Gender Dance, (Won $38,124 in Prize money) Previous most expensive from the dam was Miss Mediator ($259,896 )who only managed $13,105 in Prize money
Another offspring Quarel managed to place in a Grp 2 at Newbury 6f (2 y-o race)
The Grand Dam Gender War best progeny was Battle Fever winners of $1,310,976 in prize money (The only Black Type Winer in the 2 generation pedigree)
Good Luck
Chesham
Another offspring Quarel managed to place in a Grp 2 at Newbury 6f (2 y-o race)
The Grand Dam Gender War best progeny was Battle Fever winners of $1,310,976 in prize money (The only Black Type Winer in the 2 generation pedigree)
Good Luck
Chesham
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Tuesday 6/8/13.
I was working on the speed figures for last nights meeting at Kempton this morning, and in the 7.00 a class 6 Median Auction Maiden
over 1m3f, I had another of those WTF moments
My par for Class 6 race is 58 and here I am looking at I'm Fraam Govan owned by Sir Alex with a speed figure of 81 so
he has just smash the class 6 par by 23lb
I had the going allowance correct at +0.16s/f (standard), and even rechecked the race time over at the Sporting Life's website.
So here we have a 5yo not yet handicapped, making light of his top weight of 9-13 and producing a class 4 par time
7.35 Cork: Sheilas Wish +8 and Crystal Earth +7
I was working on the speed figures for last nights meeting at Kempton this morning, and in the 7.00 a class 6 Median Auction Maiden
over 1m3f, I had another of those WTF moments
My par for Class 6 race is 58 and here I am looking at I'm Fraam Govan owned by Sir Alex with a speed figure of 81 so
he has just smash the class 6 par by 23lb
I had the going allowance correct at +0.16s/f (standard), and even rechecked the race time over at the Sporting Life's website.
So here we have a 5yo not yet handicapped, making light of his top weight of 9-13 and producing a class 4 par time
7.35 Cork: Sheilas Wish +8 and Crystal Earth +7
TheBluesBrother
Dam
I got bored so I had a look at the Shergar Cup at Ascot on Saturday, using my speed figures I put the jockeys and teams
in ranking order to see who would come out on top
Top Jockey: James Doyle
Team: Rest of the World
in ranking order to see who would come out on top
Top Jockey: James Doyle
Team: Rest of the World
