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    AR

Sorting A Card Out

I'm backing 2 today over at Leopardstown. No great prices on offer but I think both Purview in the 3:15 and Constitution River in the 5:00 Champion stakes look good things.

Purview has been brought on nicely never being sent to achieve something beyond his real ability this season. He performs at the track and I think the decision to stay at G3 again with just a 3lb penalty is a good move.

CR in the Irish Champion stakes follows the same path as last year's impressive winner. York and Leopardstown are very different tracks. He's shown he handles faster tracks better than the more galloping options. And we know this yard can certainly bring one back from a disappointing run at the highest level.

At Doncaster it's long odds on the name O'Brien will be on the winning trainer's nameplate. But which one?

AP seemed to tell us Christmas Day wasn't fit enough at York. But Lordan's mount has slowly been getting better. And then there's Joseph's fast improving horse too. I'll just watch.
 
I think it’s official now. Constitution River is not as good as Coolmore say he is (familiar story there what with the breeding empire hype required to reel in the hopeful breeders) and Christmas Day is really not very good at all.

Purview? Well Colin Keane is not everyone’s cup of tea and he really was much too far back. But end of the day I suppose sticking to G3s says it all about expectations. The winner was a one time derby fav just a few years ago.
 
Whilst I suspect one of the first 3 or 4 in the betting will win the 1:45 at the Curragh, based on class/form etc, I can't resist having a small bet on Headmaster as I'm convinced they've been playing games with this one.

But I've had my fingers burnt with him twice now. If he can win this will a small interest who knows.
 
And that's why hunches without solid evidence will always make you look silly and enrich your bookmaker.

One of the form horses from the first 3 or 4 in the betting did win. Coul Angel better off at the weights with Sondad romped away at 7/2.
 
A day for the punter who goes into their bookies, sticks on a win yankee on the first four un-named favs and collects a nice bundle before quarter past two.

3 more bets for me today and that's it.

Curragh 5:10 Thundering On - Beaten short priced fav obviously running below par. Rest and back to collect.
Doncaster 3:05 Forty Years On - Incredibly progressive 4yo filly surely good enough to get this black type win against mainly out of form and exposed opponents.
Bath 3:15 Boilermaker - Consistent class/form horse for me. Unbeaten since stepped up to 1m 6f and won easily LTO against some of these, including last year's winner 15 lengths back. And carries 1lb less.

Need them all to win to get significantly in front for the weekend.
 
Christ. I could stop a train at the moment.

I manage to find just about the only favourite who hasn't won today in the first 9 races and once again it's a horse I didn't have faith in last time that went and won anyway and I turn up for the funeral next time.

Have to say Sun Goddess was very impressive a bit earlier. Actually quickened up going into that last furlong like a greyhound. How she got beat at Ascot is a mystery other than perhaps the ground and she's just simply improved with racing.
 
So of my last 3 bets, they were all the class/form horses but Planet Seeker in Forty Years On's race was just a point apart and really was a form horse too.

But on balance I thought FYO had the better profile. Now maybe she was just one of those class/form horses who wasn't going to deliver despite the positives. So sometimes you just have to shrug and say thems the breaks.

The other 2 clear class/form horses did win their races and Thundering Home was easy watching as it was clear Ryan knew he was on the best horse from a long way out.

In other races I didn't go for Sun Goddess who was clearly the class/form horse because the price looked a bit skinny at 4/9. But she actually returned 4/7.

Valedictory was top on AR and really I don't know I didn't forgive that run in better class over a longer trip when 6/1 to the winner at York (who I backed). He's bounced back before after a seemingly below par run. I even reasoned that not having Buick was probably just because he had ridden in Canada last night and getting back to ride at the Curragh was bound to be more realistic than getting to Doncaster.

Ah well one that got away.
 
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