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Sorting A Card Out

Hmm. The 2nd on class/form beats the class/form horse whilst getting 4lb in a handicap at Sandown.

Weight is a great leveller.

In my view they were both consistent form horses though and perhaps the weight and previous SPs should have given me more cause for concern.

And interesting that just taking the runners by their last 2 victories for the AR brought them closer together and put Huscal just in front.
 
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gerry said:
I do need QUICKTHORN to bet AMILOC later on for decent day.
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Good luck with the race. I don't know why they didn't just sell Amiloc to the states after his Del Mar run. Here they are with a group horse trying to win a 10k conditions race at Salisbury almost a year since a 2nd to Al Riffa and a 4th in the Breeders Cup.
 
Post mortem to my 3 horse book. They managed to fill the last 3 places despite Royal Poetry making what looked like a good run in the last 2 furlongs.

The added angle on Toby Moore's mount was the fact he was able to claim 5lb in an apprentices race. The only other jockey in the race who could do likewise was Owen Lewis who rode the 12/1 winner.

:doh:
 
I approach with 2 phases

First Phase the Algorithms that I have built do not know what the betting market is and a Tissue Produced Formosa the data alone . In my Case RPR pars TheBluesBrother TheBluesBrother Pars , Timeform Tfigs and Race Comments , Pace Map RaceIq and RaceIQ data

Example Baker Blue (All Runner Treated the Same )

IMG_0898.jpeg

The 2nd Phase
About 10 mins from the Start the Live BF Streams . The Metrics analysed are not just Price Disparity. Then the Original Tissue is adjusted to take into account ”Wisdom Of The Crowd “
 
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The other Race and Post Mortem explains how the BF Market was used in the 2nd Phase ( I only tackled 2 races today

Here is the post-race diagnostic for Sandown 4:22pm.

Post-Race Diagnostics: Sandown 4:22pm (Class 3, 7f)​

1. The Elite Steamer Wins: Huscal (1st at 3.95 BSP)​

  • Pre-Race Diagnosis: 🟢 +EV STRIKE. He had elite Kinematics (104% FSP) and negative dead weight (-2 lbs). Crucially, the Phase 2 telemetry confirmed a high-confidence (81) Steamer alert backed by heavy flow (£731/min).
  • Kinematic Reality: The money was absolutely right. Huscal sat off the pace, utilizing a highly efficient stride frequency (ranked 1st in Max Frequency at 2.46 SPS) to reel in the leaders on the Sandown hill. The 104% Finishing Speed we identified in Phase 1 was the exact weapon he needed to overcome the slow early pace and assert dominance late. Capturing 3.95 BSP on a heavily backed syndicate horse is a textbook algorithmic win.
 
just one part of the data entered for the 1st Phase


IMG_0899.jpeg


Pre Race when the Live Market was fed in


The Phase 2 live market telemetry for Sandown 16:22 is a beautiful validation of our Phase 1 Kinematic map. The smart money is aligning exactly with our structural targets, while the public is walking into a massive layer trap on the horse we identified as kinematically flawed.

Here is the Phase 2 diagnostic and final strike execution for Sandown.

1. The Kinematic Trap Vindicated: The Angel King​

  • Baseline Tissue: 8.00 | Live Odds: 5.9
  • Volume Metrics: £9.3k matched (28.1% of active pool) → Implied Volume Price: 3.56
  • Price Disparity: 5.9 / 3.56 = 1.65 (Severe Layer Resistance)
  • Execution Verdict: 🛑 FADE / LAY. This is the exact same signature we saw on Vintage Clarets in the previous race. He has taken the most money in the entire pool (£9.3k), yet the layers are aggressively holding his price out at 5.9. The smart money knows exactly what our Phase 1 map exposed: he carries +1 lb dead weight and has a terrible 95% Finishing Speed. He is mathematically dead late in the race, and the syndicates are gladly laying him.

2. The Elite Steamer: Huscal​

  • Baseline Tissue: 3.50 | Live Odds: 4.0 (Steamed from 4.8)
  • Steamer Monster Profile: 17.7% Drop | CONF 81 | Flow £731/min | PR 1.8x
  • Volume Metrics: £8.8k matched (26.6% of pool) → Implied Volume Price: 3.76
  • Price Disparity: 4.0 / 3.76 = 1.06 (Slight Resistance, but supported)
  • WotC Adjusted Tissue (60/40): 3.69
  • Execution Verdict: 🟢 +EV STRIKE. This is what real syndicate money looks like. He has triggered a High-Confidence Steamer alert (81), backed by massive flow (£731/min). We know why they are backing him: he is -2 lbs well-in, gets the perfect Held Up trip, and has an elite 104% FSP. At 4.0 against a WotC tissue of 3.69, he is a primary target.
 
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Chesham said:
The other Race and Post Mortem explains how the BF Market was used in the 2nd Phase ( I only tackled 2 races today

Here is the post-race diagnostic for Sandown 4:22pm.

Post-Race Diagnostics: Sandown 4:22pm (Class 3, 7f)​

1. The Elite Steamer Wins: Huscal (1st at 3.95 BSP)​

  • Pre-Race Diagnosis: 🟢 +EV STRIKE. He had elite Kinematics (104% FSP) and negative dead weight (-2 lbs). Crucially, the Phase 2 telemetry confirmed a high-confidence (81) Steamer alert backed by heavy flow (£731/min).
  • Kinematic Reality: The money was absolutely right. Huscal sat off the pace, utilizing a highly efficient stride frequency (ranked 1st in Max Frequency at 2.46 SPS) to reel in the leaders on the Sandown hill. The 104% Finishing Speed we identified in Phase 1 was the exact weapon he needed to overcome the slow early pace and assert dominance late. Capturing 3.95 BSP on a heavily backed syndicate horse is a textbook algorithmic win.
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Huscal made all the running ??
 
Prominent, led after 1f, pushed along over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on well

3rd to reach 20mph according to the RaceIQ

The RaceIQ was fed in for the post mortem before the race comments were available
 
Chesham said:
Prominent, led after 1f, pushed along over 1f out, ridden inside final furlong, kept on well

3rd to reach 20mph according to the RaceIQ

The RaceIQ was fed in for the post mortem before the race comments were available
Click to expand...
As I recall he pretty much made all. The Angel King was only briefly in front after the gate. (All too brief for my liking too).
 
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