Sorting A Card Out
- Thread starter Tufnel
- Start date
Only by a short head though.
I’ve backed Rabbit’s Foot twice this season. Once when narrowly beaten in May and then again at a decent price when it came late and comfortably to beat Tiffany who despite managing to lose a shoe in at Newmarket next time has gone and won twice since including an excellent win at Kentucky Downs last night beating Breeders Cup winner Ethical Diamond.
I’m tempted to back Rabbits Foot in this afternoon’s Prix Vermeille but this might be a step above her ability. I’ll let her run, but if she wins the cat might get as unlucky as the rabbit.
I’m tempted to back Rabbits Foot in this afternoon’s Prix Vermeille but this might be a step above her ability. I’ll let her run, but if she wins the cat might get as unlucky as the rabbit.
MySportsAI
Filly
It appears to me like people are looking for a list of contenders based on VDW ideas of consistency. Perhaps Machine Learning can help.
Taking 4 obvious candidate input features namely
BeatLto1,BetaLto2 and BeatLto3 where the last 2 are the same formula but for the 2 prevkous to last races
Now if we add
and then predict on handicap data for 2011 to 2019 we get decent results on the top 4 which could form our short list
These results hold up over 2021 to 2025
So what is todays short list predicting on todays runners......next message
Taking 4 obvious candidate input features namely
BeatLto1,BetaLto2 and BeatLto3 where the last 2 are the same formula but for the 2 prevkous to last races
Now if we add
and then predict on handicap data for 2011 to 2019 we get decent results on the top 4 which could form our short list
These results hold up over 2021 to 2025
So what is todays short list predicting on todays runners......next message
MySportsAI
Filly
Apologies for the poor cropping above, here are todays where the first 4 in the ratings could be a suitable shortlist
| TrackTime | Horse | Rating |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Inspired (IRE) | 0.202894 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Callisto Dream (IRE) | 0.182383 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Rajapour (IRE) | 0.172823 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Alpha Capture (IRE) | 0.15608 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Lir Speciale (IRE) | 0.152689 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Dwindling Funds | 0.146007 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Son | 0.127401 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Illy's Roo (IRE) | 0.125192 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Substance (IRE) | 0.1234 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Daydreama | 0.122538 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Master Richard | 0.109163 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Proud Nation (IRE) | 0.106526 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | King Casper (IRE) | 0.10449 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Advance Twentyfive (FR) | 0.097187 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Canvas | 0.093679 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Melvin Udall (IRE) | 0.092464 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Barley (IRE) | 0.089522 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Empirestateofmind (IRE) | 0.088462 |
| York_17:00_2026-09-06 | Be Frank | 0.076104 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | Woohoo (IRE) | 0.212987 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | Mr Noble (IRE) | 0.210198 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | Quest For Fun | 0.178767 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | Bobby Bennu (IRE) | 0.153942 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | Northern Express (IRE) | 0.133103 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | Our Havana | 0.124723 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | Utmost Good Faith | 0.122044 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | Great Dream | 0.120933 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | U Sure Do (IRE) | 0.116547 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | Power Fizz (IRE) | 0.115986 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | Khafiz (IRE) | 0.106017 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | Humam (IRE) | 0.099559 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | He's A Monster (IRE) | 0.091992 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | Houquetot (IRE) | 0.082176 |
| York_16:25_2026-09-06 | First Time (IRE) | 0.077992 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Besieged | 0.210775 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Dark Moon Rising (IRE) | 0.173485 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Empire Of Light (IRE) | 0.160293 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Tuscan Hills (FR) | 0.151287 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Have Secret (IRE) | 0.147925 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Dhahabi (IRE) | 0.1475 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Castle Stuart (IRE) | 0.145256 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Double Parked (IRE) | 0.141661 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Wanderlust (FR) | 0.13153 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Duke's Command | 0.128849 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Teumessias Fox (IRE) | 0.120312 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Stoneacre Donny | 0.110861 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Pearl River | 0.107403 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Let's Dream | 0.084424 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Nesthorn | 0.083553 |
| York_15:15_2026-09-06 | Wahdan (IRE) | 0.076862 |
| York_14:40_2026-09-06 | Marbuzet | 0.168564 |
| York_14:40_2026-09-06 | Moon Chime | 0.160514 |
| York_14:40_2026-09-06 | High Fibre (IRE) | 0.15578 |
| York_14:40_2026-09-06 | Trojan Sun | 0.133899 |
| York_14:40_2026-09-06 | Newport | 0.124543 |
| York_14:40_2026-09-06 | Shadow Dance | 0.112079 |
| York_14:40_2026-09-06 | Call My Bluff (IRE) | 0.094288 |
| York_14:40_2026-09-06 | Percy Shelley | 0.085109 |
| York_14:40_2026-09-06 | Furhaan | 0.083901 |
| York_14:40_2026-09-06 | Rock N Roll Pinkie | 0.073892 |
| York_14:40_2026-09-06 | Pinatique (FR) | 0.071102 |
| York_14:40_2026-09-06 | Florida Dreams (IRE) | 0.060328 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Harb | 0.19864 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Explosive Finnish | 0.193119 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Little Mi Mi (IRE) | 0.187699 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Vingegaard (IRE) | 0.18138 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Call To Action (IRE) | 0.172777 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Havana Rum (IRE) | 0.154979 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Managing Director (IRE) | 0.150541 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Utmost Respect (IRE) | 0.144524 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Tanjen (IRE) | 0.131782 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Maharajas Express | 0.13159 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Duran (IRE) | 0.12779 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Curious Rover (IRE) | 0.12122 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Kinnalargy | 0.121054 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Sports Coach (IRE) | 0.118097 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Parisiac (IRE) | 0.11485 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Oriental Prince | 0.102783 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | True Promise | 0.096608 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Copper Knight (IRE) | 0.086116 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Roach Power (IRE) | 0.08202 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Bonnie's Boy | 0.074808 |
| York_14:05_2026-09-06 | Kanishka (IRE) | 0.068078 |
Chesham
Sire
I‘m not using VDW for my post
MySportsAI Ithink you might be better on the Class/Form thread where Consistency is being mentioned.
I would delete this post and put it on the Class/Form thread. Also it might be useful to explain what the screen shots are telling us. The big gaps between screen shots are also meaning plenty of scrolling between the screen shots
MySportsAI Ithink you might be better on the Class/Form thread where Consistency is being mentioned.I would delete this post and put it on the Class/Form thread. Also it might be useful to explain what the screen shots are telling us. The big gaps between screen shots are also meaning plenty of scrolling between the screen shots
MySportsAI
Filly
Apologies wrong thread
Chesham
Sire
Here is the final live market audit with under 6 minutes to the jump. The money has arrived, and the picture is crystal clear.
2. Ask A Sainte is Being Rejected The market has read the same Timeform comments we did. We noted he pulled up last time and "shaped as if amiss." The exchange agrees—his price has drifted violently from 3.5 out to 4.6. Despite being the only horse with a proven Class 4 Hurdle figure in his past, the late money wants absolutely nothing to do with him today.
No More Bolero has the verified 110 RPR Class 4 form, the uncontested front-running pace map, and now, the massive late FLOW and ACCEL velocity to back it all up.
Live Price Disparity Breakdown (Total Pool: £76.2k)
| HORSE | MATCHED (£) | POOL % | VOL. IMPLIED ODDS | LIVE ODDS | PRICE DISPARITY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No More Bolero | 34.7k | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.7 | 1.23 |
| So Proud | 17.0k | 22.3% | 4.48 | 4.0 | 0.89 |
| Ask A Sainte | 14.2k | 18.6% | 5.38 | 4.6 | 0.86 |
| Start Again | 4.7k | 6.2% | 16.13 | 13.5 | 0.84 |
| Motazzen | 5.6k | 7.3% | 13.70 | 10.5 | 0.77 |
The Final Verdict: Is No More Bolero a Genuine Favorite?
Yes. The late money is real, and it is aggressive. Four hours ago, layers were comfortably holding him at 2.7 on tiny volume. Now, the market has exploded. He has absorbed a massive £34.7k (nearly half the pool) with an astronomical FLOW of 8.6k—by far the heaviest, fastest-moving money on the board. The algorithm has flagged his velocity as ▲ ACCEL, meaning the backing pressure is intensifying as the jump approaches. His tactical advantage as the 'Lone Speed Anomaly' is being fully backed by the late cash.The Two Major Market Shifts
1. The "So Proud" Stable Plunge This is the big late twist. So Proud has triggered an ALERTED tag, crashing 24.5% down to 4.0. The CONF rating of 76 is massive, confirming this is a structurally sound, highly coordinated move (often seen with Jonjo O'Neill stable runners). However, look at the PR of 1.0x (559 Back vs 574 Lay) and the 0.89 Disparity. The price crashed so fast that layers have now stepped in heavily at 4.0 to stop the slide. He is the clear danger to the favorite, but he lacks the raw pacing gears No More Bolero has.2. Ask A Sainte is Being Rejected The market has read the same Timeform comments we did. We noted he pulled up last time and "shaped as if amiss." The exchange agrees—his price has drifted violently from 3.5 out to 4.6. Despite being the only horse with a proven Class 4 Hurdle figure in his past, the late money wants absolutely nothing to do with him today.
The Tactical Play
The data confirms everything we mapped out. Ask A Sainte is drifting out of contention, and So Proud is taking a plunge but remains tactically vulnerable. No More Bolero has the verified 110 RPR Class 4 form, the uncontested front-running pace map, and now, the massive late FLOW and ACCEL velocity to back it all up.
Chesham
Sire
Post Mortem
This is a textbook example of why we read the early exchange markets and why the late money isn't always right.
The early exchange layers—who aggressively held No More Bolero at 2.7 when the volume said he should be much shorter—were absolutely correct to take him on. The late public money poured in and forced him into 6/4 (1.50) favoritism, but the "smart money" layers who laid him early got the last laugh.
Looking at the post-race RaceIQ metrics, the data reveals exactly why the tactical pace map failed to materialize and where the race was won and lost.
Look at his jumping metrics compared to the favorite:
Going in, his form looked completely broken (finishing 9th, 4th, 3rd with regressing RPRs). However, his RaceIQ metrics show he ran a highly efficient, grinding race. While he didn't jump as well as So Proud (-1.04L lost), he stayed out of trouble, managed a solid 34.89 MPH top speed, and capitalized on the favorite falling apart on the front end.
This is a textbook example of why we read the early exchange markets and why the late money isn't always right.
The early exchange layers—who aggressively held No More Bolero at 2.7 when the volume said he should be much shorter—were absolutely correct to take him on. The late public money poured in and forced him into 6/4 (1.50) favoritism, but the "smart money" layers who laid him early got the last laugh.
Looking at the post-race RaceIQ metrics, the data reveals exactly why the tactical pace map failed to materialize and where the race was won and lost.
Where the Favorite Failed: The Jumping Breakdown
We noted pre-race that No More Bolero had a habit of "going in snatches" and that layers might be doubting his jumping fluency over the longer Class 4 trip. The RaceIQ jump metrics confirm this was exactly where he fell apart:- Lengths Gained Jumping: -2.26L (Ranked 4th). He was bleeding ground at the obstacles.
- Positive Jump %: 40% (Ranked 4th). He missed more hurdles than he hit cleanly.
- Time In Envelope: 4.56s (Ranked 4th). He was spending too much time in the air, killing his momentum and neutralizing that elite 30.8 exit speed we saw in his flat profile.
The "So Proud" Plunge Validated
The late, aggressive money we saw for So Proud (crashing 24.5% to 4.0 with an ALERTED tag) was highly accurate, even though he just missed out on the win.Look at his jumping metrics compared to the favorite:
- Lengths Gained Jumping: +2.74L (1st in field).
- Positive Jump %: 80.00% (1st in field).
- Top Speed: 35.54 MPH (1st in field).
The Motazzen Anomaly
Motazzen (15/2) pulling off the win is the pure volatility of Class 4 jumps racing.Going in, his form looked completely broken (finishing 9th, 4th, 3rd with regressing RPRs). However, his RaceIQ metrics show he ran a highly efficient, grinding race. While he didn't jump as well as So Proud (-1.04L lost), he stayed out of trouble, managed a solid 34.89 MPH top speed, and capitalized on the favorite falling apart on the front end.
Chesham
Sire
T
Tufnel
I have posted this not long ago on another thread where I post my Benchmark Ratings On Tuesdays . I did not analyse today’s race beforehand or even consider a bet on the horse.
However, the horse prior to today’s race , Was flagged as being overlooked for the performance 2 races ago. NTO despite being well in , compared to its BHA rating did not seem to perform
So surprised to see the horse hose up today
Anyway I think that I have found but missed pre race what the Trainer was up to
The article underneath my obser actions is an article by Rob Taulbot an American write
I have noticed this lately. Especially trainers like Jim Goldie
The above was 2 runs go and a Median OR = 67
Perhaps Jim Goldie realised that he had got away with Hndicapper leaving him on 69. He then want to give the horse a bit more conditioning and pushed the horse into a Median OR 86 and was 2 Lbs out of the Handicap
Today is dropped to median OR = 75 , but the Prize Money is greater than by some way than LTO
Wins today at 10/1 by o er 5 lengths
This article springs to mind
I did not analyse the race berhand but went in my Tracker 2 runs ago and taken by surprise that LTO put a poor performance on paper for a horse that was well handicapped . But looking after the race JG Hndicapper his own horse LTO\
The trainer, so to speak, is the middle man in racing. With few exceptions his livelihood depends upon winning purse money. Never forget that a trainer can be fired if he fails to produce. A second fact that should never be overlooked is that all horses do not respond to identical methods of training. Thus, we encounter different methods of procedure which we sometimes call racing angles. Therefore, one must familiarize oneself with what a trainer has done in the recent past and what he is doing today. And more important-why he is doing it. We believe every reader will agree that he could improve his winning margin if he knew that every selection he backs is a fit horse, well-meant, and properly placed.
Let's look briefly at a type of move which tells us what the trainer is up to. A horse turns in a fair effort over a six-furlong distance. Next start the trainer enters this horse in a route race, and gives it an easy conditioning race. Today he has again entered him in a sprint race.
What does this trainer move tell a selector? It tells him that after the horse turned in a fair sprint effort its trainer decided it needed more stamina. Therefore, he entered it in a route race in order to leg his horse up a bit. Today he has entered his horse in a sprint race, which means he believes his horse is now ready and he is going to try. If the horse is a figure contender, the selector knows it is a real threat-it figures well and the trainer has practically told us he is going to crack down.
There are three kinds of racing angles that help the selector in his work: trainer angles, performance angles, and a combination of the two. The trainer angles reveal the method the conditioner has employed to get his horse ready for the race. The performance angle reveals the condition of the horse through the manner in which it has recently performed. When we have both trainer and performance angles present in the chart we have a strong combination angle.
A third fact that should be remembered and accepted is a two-part fact:
1) Sharp condition contributes more toward a winning effort than any other single factor.
2) There is no such thing as a sure thing in horse racing.
Any horse in the field may win or lose. This fact, if remembered, should prevent the common mistake of going overboard on a horse that looks like an extra good selection. In short, it is bad business to bet two dollars on one selection and ten dollars on another.
When the effectiveness of a sharp current condition is mentioned many fans ask: "What about horses that win when there was no evidence in their chart to indicate sharpness?"
First, the horse won, therefore it ran faster than any other horse in the field, so it was fit and ready. And now to the key question: Was there any evidence that the trainer believed his horse was fit and ready despite its poor public form?
No one can answer that question unless he is familiar with all of the good trainer angles. We can tell you, however, that in many instances such angles are present, and if you knew about them you could pick up many an extra good priced winner. Here are the top two races of a horse that was cleverly prepped by its trainer:
$3,000
1-1/4 Clm 3500 45 921 923 925 30.90
6f Clm 3599 59 59 421/2 99 6.30
Note that this horse was beaten by 25 lengths last time out and nine lengths in its previous race. To the casual observer the horse appears in no way ready to win a race. But let us look at how the horse was handled by the trainer. The penultimate race appears dull until we see that the horse was allowed to run in one burst of speed from the half-mile pole to the eight pole, making up 6-1/2 lengths on the leader.
Its "race within a race" shows us that the horse was sharp. Sharp enough for the trainer? No. Perhaps the jockey told him the horse had flattened out.
Accordingly the trainer next entered him in a race of 1-1/4 miles where he could employ the race workout and distance switch angles. Was this the time for the horse to try for such a win after its six furlong speed sharpener? No, the horse received some backing in its next-to-last race but next time out it went off at 30-1. After being close to the pace for half a mile the horse was allowed to amble along behind its field.
What did the trainer achieve? He gave the horse a workout both for speed and endurance. Further by now he has shaken off about 90 percent of the novice racetrack handicappers. But how can we tell if the trainer is really trying in today's sprint contest? We get a pretty good tip-off in the fact that he has chosen a race where he must drop the horse $500 in value. This horse won returning $87.40.
Drops in claiming prices do not always signify that a trainer is trying. But when you get 40-1 odds you can afford to make a few mistakes. Bear in mind that if you can beat the price you can beat the races.
We wonder how many of our readers know that slightly more than 50 percent of the races won during the past 20 years were won by horses that finished in-the-money in one of their last two starts? And that when horses that finished fourth, beaten no more than 1-1/2 lengths, are included the percentage climbs higher. Isn't this fact of racing important to the selector's work? We think so. How many readers know what percentages of races are won by horses that have previously won 35 percent of their starts? We can tell you it is surprisingly high, although the prices on some are too short for profitable speculation.
Another fact that every racing fan should accept is that:
"Every race a horse runs either contributes to the furtherance of sharp conditions or tends to dull whatever degree of sharpness the horse enjoyed at that time."
This is why speed ratings are not always a true indication of the degree of current sharpness. In some instances the speed rating will reveal the sharpest horse in the field, in other instances it will not. We must first consider the probable effect of the last race upon the horse's condition before we can accurately judge the true value of a speed rating. Let's look at an example that will make this clear. Examine the running line of the two following races:
Horse A 54 33 22 21 speed 95
Horse B 11/2 11/2 1nk 1 no speed 95
It is clear that Horse B had a very hard race, one in which it was under severe pressure from the first call to the finish. Horse A, on the other hand, was never under hard pressure and, as a result might improve today, while Horse B will almost certainly tail off. The problem becomes even more complicated when the two races were run over different distances, or when the two horses earned their respective speed ratings over different tracks. Speed ratings, which include the beaten lengths, if any, are a factor that are usable in certain conditions, but to accept the figure blindly at face value in every instance is a dangerous procedure.
I have posted this not long ago on another thread where I post my Benchmark Ratings On Tuesdays . I did not analyse today’s race beforehand or even consider a bet on the horse.
However, the horse prior to today’s race , Was flagged as being overlooked for the performance 2 races ago. NTO despite being well in , compared to its BHA rating did not seem to perform
So surprised to see the horse hose up today
Anyway I think that I have found but missed pre race what the Trainer was up to
The article underneath my obser actions is an article by Rob Taulbot an American write
I have noticed this lately. Especially trainers like Jim Goldie
- signal).
The Manhattan Output (The Grid Evaluator)
- Flagged: Oriental Prince (GB)
- Why: The Manhattan grid demands structural balance under pressure. Oriental Prince generated a 99.67% FSP to overcome a +11.0 lb pace deficit and grab 2nd. BHA left his mark untouched on 69. Carrying a +11.0 lb True Advantage, he is sitting on a powder keg mark for 5f handicaps.
Revised Race Summary & RobustScaler Chart
(Note: CCR Ratings are calculated using the field's median BHA of 67 + Individual BHA. TFR strictly reflects the Win marks).| Horse | TFR (Win) | Tfig | BHA (Off / Perf / New) | CCR Rating | Hidden Penalty | Gemini Mark | FSP % (IQR Filtered) | True Adv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Little Mi Mi | 85 | 83 | 70 / 76 / 76 | 137 | +5.4 lbs (Pace) | 75.4 | 98.85% | -0.6 lbs |
Oriental Prince  | 78+ | 77 | 69 / 69 / 69 | 136 | +11.0 lbs (Pace) | 80.0 | 99.67% | +11.0 lbs |
| Hundred Caps | 82 | 82 | 75 / 74 / 74 | 142 | +1.3 lbs (Pace) | 75.3 | 97.33% | +1.3 lbs |
 Tiriac | 74+ | 74 | 71 / 67 / 69 | 138 | +11.7 lbs (Dwelt/Traffic/Pace) | 78.7 | 99.85% | +9.7 lbs |
| King's Crown | 75+ | 75 | 71 / 67 / 69 | 138 | +9.9 lbs (Pace) | 76.9 | 99.94% | +7.9 lbs |
The above was 2 runs go and a Median OR = 67
Perhaps Jim Goldie realised that he had got away with Hndicapper leaving him on 69. He then want to give the horse a bit more conditioning and pushed the horse into a Median OR 86 and was 2 Lbs out of the Handicap
Today is dropped to median OR = 75 , but the Prize Money is greater than by some way than LTO
Wins today at 10/1 by o er 5 lengths
This article springs to mind
I did not analyse the race berhand but went in my Tracker 2 runs ago and taken by surprise that LTO put a poor performance on paper for a horse that was well handicapped . But looking after the race JG Hndicapper his own horse LTO\
The trainer, so to speak, is the middle man in racing. With few exceptions his livelihood depends upon winning purse money. Never forget that a trainer can be fired if he fails to produce. A second fact that should never be overlooked is that all horses do not respond to identical methods of training. Thus, we encounter different methods of procedure which we sometimes call racing angles. Therefore, one must familiarize oneself with what a trainer has done in the recent past and what he is doing today. And more important-why he is doing it. We believe every reader will agree that he could improve his winning margin if he knew that every selection he backs is a fit horse, well-meant, and properly placed.
Let's look briefly at a type of move which tells us what the trainer is up to. A horse turns in a fair effort over a six-furlong distance. Next start the trainer enters this horse in a route race, and gives it an easy conditioning race. Today he has again entered him in a sprint race.
What does this trainer move tell a selector? It tells him that after the horse turned in a fair sprint effort its trainer decided it needed more stamina. Therefore, he entered it in a route race in order to leg his horse up a bit. Today he has entered his horse in a sprint race, which means he believes his horse is now ready and he is going to try. If the horse is a figure contender, the selector knows it is a real threat-it figures well and the trainer has practically told us he is going to crack down.
There are three kinds of racing angles that help the selector in his work: trainer angles, performance angles, and a combination of the two. The trainer angles reveal the method the conditioner has employed to get his horse ready for the race. The performance angle reveals the condition of the horse through the manner in which it has recently performed. When we have both trainer and performance angles present in the chart we have a strong combination angle.
A third fact that should be remembered and accepted is a two-part fact:
1) Sharp condition contributes more toward a winning effort than any other single factor.
2) There is no such thing as a sure thing in horse racing.
Any horse in the field may win or lose. This fact, if remembered, should prevent the common mistake of going overboard on a horse that looks like an extra good selection. In short, it is bad business to bet two dollars on one selection and ten dollars on another.
When the effectiveness of a sharp current condition is mentioned many fans ask: "What about horses that win when there was no evidence in their chart to indicate sharpness?"
First, the horse won, therefore it ran faster than any other horse in the field, so it was fit and ready. And now to the key question: Was there any evidence that the trainer believed his horse was fit and ready despite its poor public form?
No one can answer that question unless he is familiar with all of the good trainer angles. We can tell you, however, that in many instances such angles are present, and if you knew about them you could pick up many an extra good priced winner. Here are the top two races of a horse that was cleverly prepped by its trainer:
$3,000
1-1/4 Clm 3500 45 921 923 925 30.90
6f Clm 3599 59 59 421/2 99 6.30
Note that this horse was beaten by 25 lengths last time out and nine lengths in its previous race. To the casual observer the horse appears in no way ready to win a race. But let us look at how the horse was handled by the trainer. The penultimate race appears dull until we see that the horse was allowed to run in one burst of speed from the half-mile pole to the eight pole, making up 6-1/2 lengths on the leader.
Its "race within a race" shows us that the horse was sharp. Sharp enough for the trainer? No. Perhaps the jockey told him the horse had flattened out.
Accordingly the trainer next entered him in a race of 1-1/4 miles where he could employ the race workout and distance switch angles. Was this the time for the horse to try for such a win after its six furlong speed sharpener? No, the horse received some backing in its next-to-last race but next time out it went off at 30-1. After being close to the pace for half a mile the horse was allowed to amble along behind its field.
What did the trainer achieve? He gave the horse a workout both for speed and endurance. Further by now he has shaken off about 90 percent of the novice racetrack handicappers. But how can we tell if the trainer is really trying in today's sprint contest? We get a pretty good tip-off in the fact that he has chosen a race where he must drop the horse $500 in value. This horse won returning $87.40.
Drops in claiming prices do not always signify that a trainer is trying. But when you get 40-1 odds you can afford to make a few mistakes. Bear in mind that if you can beat the price you can beat the races.
We wonder how many of our readers know that slightly more than 50 percent of the races won during the past 20 years were won by horses that finished in-the-money in one of their last two starts? And that when horses that finished fourth, beaten no more than 1-1/2 lengths, are included the percentage climbs higher. Isn't this fact of racing important to the selector's work? We think so. How many readers know what percentages of races are won by horses that have previously won 35 percent of their starts? We can tell you it is surprisingly high, although the prices on some are too short for profitable speculation.
Another fact that every racing fan should accept is that:
"Every race a horse runs either contributes to the furtherance of sharp conditions or tends to dull whatever degree of sharpness the horse enjoyed at that time."
This is why speed ratings are not always a true indication of the degree of current sharpness. In some instances the speed rating will reveal the sharpest horse in the field, in other instances it will not. We must first consider the probable effect of the last race upon the horse's condition before we can accurately judge the true value of a speed rating. Let's look at an example that will make this clear. Examine the running line of the two following races:
Horse A 54 33 22 21 speed 95
Horse B 11/2 11/2 1nk 1 no speed 95
It is clear that Horse B had a very hard race, one in which it was under severe pressure from the first call to the finish. Horse A, on the other hand, was never under hard pressure and, as a result might improve today, while Horse B will almost certainly tail off. The problem becomes even more complicated when the two races were run over different distances, or when the two horses earned their respective speed ratings over different tracks. Speed ratings, which include the beaten lengths, if any, are a factor that are usable in certain conditions, but to accept the figure blindly at face value in every instance is a dangerous procedure.
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