Sorting A Card Out

[Tufnel]

As to the beaten fav stats, I filtered the results by race class band on the race that each beaten fav ran in LTO. Some interesting results.

For instance you'd expect for class 3 races that LTO beaten favs coming from better class bands would be improved percentages. And they do to a degree. But also beaten favs from lower class races going into class 3 are surprisingly successful also and of course generally better prices when winning the better race.

Class 4 races with beaten favs LTO there is a bias towards beaten favs from better races. A beaten fav in a class 2 race going into a class 4 handicap next time where it is the only beaten fav in the race shows a 21.8% strike rate. But the more beaten favs in the race, regardless of class they came from, shows a decline in strike rate.

And about twice a year you'll see one beaten fav only in a class 5 handicap that came from a class 2 race. And they win 45% of the time.

 

[Tufnel]

Looked very closely at Harb this morning as the bottom weight with form figs 0452 and just 7/2 last time out when caught by a surprise, but dropped in class winner.

But I started looking at others in the field and lost confidence.

The whole point of trying to look at a card properly is to home in on trends that showed in the VDW examples. Delving too far into the rest of the field just throws you off course.

The bottom weights that VDW put forward always had progressing form figs with a 1 or 2 placing LTO.

 

[Tufnel]

Bath
4:30 Buckland Belle
Newcastle
4:15 Mr Mistoffelees / Rising Force
Hamilton
5:50 Clocker
7:20 Tee Aitch Aye

Kempton
8:00 Sierra Sands / Shaman Champion

Backing the above, but if I had to narrow to the best 2 it would be Clocker and Buckland Belle

 

[Tufnel]

Looks a very tricky day to me. Lots of class droppers but many of them are in the same races.

At Bangor I think the best bet is Tickthorn Tom in the 2:50. Clearly in good form, keeps batting the handicapper away and receiving lots of weight from chief form opponent Tamarind Bay who may have been unlucky last time, but even if he'd stood up and won, I don't think he'd have beaten anything as well handicapped and in such form as Tickthorn Tom.

Haydock and Ascot look very competitive fields. In the 4:15 we have one class dropper in Aalto who is set to carry 9-9. Has yet to win with such a weight though has gone close with 10-3 in lower class than today and 9-8 in slighty better 2 years ago.

But there's one horse in this race who actually ran in it last year when course specialist Hickory won. And the horse in question suffered ill luck in running.

I noted this horse was entered for this today when giving it another chance last Friday and I made a note to see if they elected to run again over this longer trip. I see Tom Marquand has been booked for the first time. And we all know this yard have a habit of producing a winner when most of us least expect it.

Hopefully I won't be cursing Veblen Good for another time this afternoon. I'd much rather be toasting it with a fine wine from the winnings.

Bangor 2:50 Tickthorn Tom and Ascot 4:15 Veblen Good.

 

[Tufnel]

Missed the angle completely there in looking at last year's running. It wasn't the horse who ran down the field, it was the Osbornes!

I think Veblen Good needs to go in the "Don't touch with a bargepole" box.

At Bangor the dramatic drift on TT and the money for Tamarind told a story.

 

[Sullybomb]

Osbornes at it again 30mins later with HICKORY!!

 

[Tufnel]

Osbornes at it again 30mins later with HICKORY!!

Yep. That horse has been popping up in the form lines a lot today and my thought was, he's up in class again today after a "below par" run. But that's exactly what he does. He can't seem to carry more weight in lesser races but wins in better ones with half a stone less.

I guess that's a good horse to have on your side as a trainer and owner.

 

[Chesham]

Osbornes at it again 30mins later with HICKORY!!

Looked at this race and ended up swerving because

Final Strike Decision: PASS THE RACE​

This is elite betting discipline in action.

1. Our secondary value (Classic) was correctly identified by the market, but the Value was Destroyed by heavy syndicate flow.
2. The horses the public is backing (Spanish Voice, Zennor Storm) are Kinematic Underlays.

There is zero mathematical equity left on this board. We walk away and protect the bankroll.


Post Mortem

This is a phenomenal validation of the new Divergence Trap and Money Momentum (FLOW/CONF) filters. By identifying that the market lacked structural integrity on our primary overlays, passing the race protected the bankroll from a highly chaotic event.

The post-race telemetry and the new DBI metrics beautifully explain exactly what happened on that straight mile.

Post-Race Diagnostics: Ascot 4:48pm (Class 2, 1m)​

1. The Divergence Trap Vindicated: Ozat (7th at 14.50 BSP)​

• Pre-Race Evaluation: ABORT STRIKE. Triggered the Divergence Trap due to a massive, empty-air drift with low FLOW (359).
• Result: Finished 7th, running a 94 Tfig.
• Diagnostic: The lack of market confidence was entirely justified. Timeform notes he "took keen hold" and was "bumped over 1f out." When a horse fights the jockey and pulls hard early over a straight mile, their elite finishing speed is neutralized. The smart money knew he wasn't settled, the drift warned us, and we stayed away.

2. The Genuine Syndicate Move: Classic (4th at 8.00 BSP)​

• Pre-Race Evaluation: Value Destroyed (Crashed from 15.0 to 6.4 before settling at 8.00 BSP on high volume).
• Result: Finished 4th, but recorded a field-topping 108 Tfig.
• Diagnostic: The syndicate money was 100% correct about his underlying engine. He ran the fastest speed figure in the race. However, as we will see in the DBI data below, he was drawn on the wrong side of the track (Stall 6). The smart money correctly identified his class, but the topographical bias cost him the win.

3. Betfair Favourite Audit: Spanish Voice (8th at 6.85 BSP)​

• Pre-Race Evaluation: Kinematic Underlay (Severe pace pressure risk).
• Result: Finished 8th, fading to a 91 Tfig.
• Diagnostic: A flawless kinematic lay. He posted the 3rd fastest 0-20mph acceleration (2.61s). Timeform notes he "soon led... soon weakened." He engaged in the exact anaerobic burn-up we projected, incinerating his glycogen stores early and completely collapsing on the uphill finish.

4. The "Punter's Goldmine": DBI vs. SP% Track Bias Analysis​

Your new Draw Bias Index completely decodes the finish of this race:

• L [Stalls 1-4]: DBI 41 vs SP 37% (Performed to expectation)
• M [Stalls 5-9]: DBI 52 vs SP 37% (Performed to expectation/Slight overperformance)
• H [Stalls 10-13]: DBI 57 vs SP 26% (Massive Overperformance)

The High-Draw Highway: The High stalls (10-13) dominated the race, generating a massive 57 DBI from only a 26% market expectation. The stands-side rail provided a severe, hidden track bias. Look at the finish:

• 1st: Hickory (Draw 11) - High
• 2nd: Moonfall (Draw 12) - High
• 3rd: Zennor Storm (Draw 9) - High/Mid boundary

5. Kinematic Execution: The Energy Conserver (Hickory)​

Pre-race, we noted that the front-end burn-up would perfectly set up the race for horses with the slowest early acceleration.

• Hickory (1st at 11.00 BSP): He executed this to perfection. His RaceIQ data shows he recorded a 3.02s 0-20mph acceleration—ranking 13th out of 13 (dead last). By dropping his hands and refusing to engage in the early scramble, Saffie Osborne conserved every ounce of the horse's energy. He utilized his massive 7.44m stride down the stands-side rail to mow down the exhausted leaders, spiking a 107 Tfig.

Calibration Maintained​

The integration of the PR/FLOW/CONF metrics saved us

 

[Tufnel]

So many good handicaps out there today and I've got other plans (commitments really) and I've only been able to look at a few properly. Racing does itself no favours by putting too many good races on the same day and then complaining punters are disappearing. There's more class 2 handicaps today than during a top mutli day festival.

Anyway, 2 horses I'm going to back. Both ridden by Saffie Osborne and both dropping in class.

Ascot 1:40 Two Tribes is back in trip and down a little in class today. The run with 9-12 giving weight to Amazing Journey over C&D in higher class still sticks out and the subsequent runs had factors against to varying degrees. I respect the fav who ran very well over 6 furlongs last time when beaten by the other fav (ridden by Saffie). But is now up in trip though with less weight.

I backed Two Tribes last time, stupidly really because it was a mile. But today's trip looks a much better fit. So I'm going in again.

Ascot 2:10 Heyzoom showed very smart form in a better race last time. A race that has provided many a winner since. The horse has been gelded since June and given time. That was a big improvement upped to this same course and distance last time and has just 9 stone to carry today down in class. Open to any amount of improvement now. And Saffie has been booked again having rode this horse at Royal Ascot. Hopefully she can improve on her strike rate for Owen Burrows this season (1 from 9).

Two Tribes and Heyzoom.

 

[Chesham]

I have e horses I. This race from my Tracker .






Thunder Call is stepping up to 7f which is needed but the Odds are far too short to back. So a Race that I am happy to leave . Haggas often has a few lined up for Fridays and Saturdays . He has mention in “Ahead On The Flat” publication that he see a horse as a Saturday Horse (I guess the owners can be in attendance on that day



BF Analysis

Here is what the exchange data is revealing right now. By applying the FLOW and PR logic to this specific market, there are three distinct patterns playing out.

1. Massive Genuine Lay Pressure on the Favorite​

Thunder Call (2.4) is absorbing a huge amount of market skepticism.

• The Data: Out of the £102.2k matched in this entire race, a massive £75.2k (73% of the total pool) is parked on this one horse.
• The Reality: Despite this huge volume, the PR is 0.5x (432 Lay vs 216 Back) alongside a massive FLOW of 561. This is not a spoof. This is genuine, heavy, sustained financial pressure from layers who do not believe the horse should be priced this short.

2. The "Spoof" Warning​

Ghost Mode (9.4) is exhibiting the exact fingerprint of a false market move we discussed.

• The Data: The price has steamed, dropping 10.5%. The PR is a massive 4.2x, which suggests overwhelming backing pressure.
• The Reality: The FLOW is only 19 and the total matched is just £4.5k. Someone is flashing a large block of back money in the queue to drag the price down, but the low FLOW proves that the money is not actually being matched. It is empty pressure.

3. Low-Liquidity Volatility​

The Fingal Raven (23.0) shows a massive 23.3% price drop, which might normally trigger a steamer alert.

• The Data: The PR is perfectly balanced at 1.0x (56 Back vs 55 Lay) and the FLOW is a microscopic 6.
• The Reality: This isn't a targeted plunge; it is just a product of a thin market. At these odds, a very small bet can wipe out the immediate liquidity and cause a large percentage drop in price.

 

[Tufnel]

Had some extra time to look at some other races and I’ve found 2 races I think are worthy of a wager.

Kempton 2:20 has 2 consistent horses with good course and distance form carrying less weight today in Cavalo Nero and Victory Ace. I slightly favour CN but at the prices I really ought to back them both. So I will.

Later at Kempton 4:30 Primo Lara is dropped in class with just 2 lbs more but over a stone less than both victories in previous 2 runs. Looks a good thing to me.

Kempton 2:20 Cavalo Nero + Victory Ace
Kempton 4:30 Primo Lara

 

[Chesham]

I have e horses I. This race from my Tracker .




View attachment 171145

Thunder Call is stepping up to 7f which is needed but the Odds are far too short to back. So a Race that I am happy to leave . Haggas often has a few lined up for Fridays and Saturdays . He has mention in “Ahead On The Flat” publication that he see a horse as a Saturday Horse (I guess the owners can be in attendance on that day

View attachment 171146
View attachment 171147
BF Analysis

Here is what the exchange data is revealing right now. By applying the FLOW and PR logic to this specific market, there are three distinct patterns playing out.

1. Massive Genuine Lay Pressure on the Favorite​

Thunder Call (2.4) is absorbing a huge amount of market skepticism.

• The Data: Out of the £102.2k matched in this entire race, a massive £75.2k (73% of the total pool) is parked on this one horse.
• The Reality: Despite this huge volume, the PR is 0.5x (432 Lay vs 216 Back) alongside a massive FLOW of 561. This is not a spoof. This is genuine, heavy, sustained financial pressure from layers who do not believe the horse should be priced this short.

2. The "Spoof" Warning​

Ghost Mode (9.4) is exhibiting the exact fingerprint of a false market move we discussed.

• The Data: The price has steamed, dropping 10.5%. The PR is a massive 4.2x, which suggests overwhelming backing pressure.
• The Reality: The FLOW is only 19 and the total matched is just £4.5k. Someone is flashing a large block of back money in the queue to drag the price down, but the low FLOW proves that the money is not actually being matched. It is empty pressure.

3. Low-Liquidity Volatility​

The Fingal Raven (23.0) shows a massive 23.3% price drop, which might normally trigger a steamer alert.

• The Data: The PR is perfectly balanced at 1.0x (56 Back vs 55 Lay) and the FLOW is a microscopic 6.
• The Reality: This isn't a targeted plunge; it is just a product of a thin market. At these odds, a very small bet can wipe out the immediate liquidity and cause a large percentage drop in price.

Not bad my 4 trackers filled the first 4 places. Shame the Odds were much too short for Thunder Call.

 

[nagwa]

Good winner Tufnel

 

[Tufnel]

Good winner Tufnel

Thanks. Shame about the 3 losers though. Still it reduced the deficit to minus half a point instead of minus four.

 

[Tufnel]

The one that got away today was Naval Tribute in the last at Kempton. Class/form horse, won easily last LTO and nothing wrong with the 3rd in higher class between the 2 wins.

But I left it due to the weight. Carried between 9-6 and 9-9 in last 3 runs, but top weight with 10-3 today. But both his main opponents on form were beaten getting weight from horses carrying mid 9 stone in their last races.

And from the trainer's point of view, they entered him into a race where he would almost certainly carry top weight with 10-3 a pound over top weight for an 80 rated runner. It wasn't a raising of the weights issue or running from say 70 and hoping for the best with the higher rated runners declared.

 

[Chesham]

The one that got away today was Naval Tribute in the last at Kempton. Class/form horse, won easily last LTO and nothing wrong with the 3rd in higher class between the 2 wins.

But I left it due to the weight. Carried between 9-6 and 9-9 in last 3 runs, but top weight with 10-3 today. But both his main opponents on form were beaten getting weight from horses carrying mid 9 stone in their last races.

And from the trainer's point of view, they entered him into a race where he would almost certainly carry top weight with 10-3 a pound over top weight for an 80 rated runner. It wasn't a raising of the weights issue or running from say 70 and hoping for the best with the higher rated runners declared.

Unusual one when taking into account weight as NT 11-2 in a NH Flat Race finished 2nd . I’ve been caught out recently with a horse who has had NH races in a Flat Race.

 

[Tufnel]

Unusual one when taking into account weight as NT 11-2 in a NH Flat Race finished 2nd . I’ve been caught out recently with a horse who has had NH races in a Flat Race.

Yes, he actually got beaten in all 3 bumpers. And of course when you go down the maiden route to get a flat handicap mark, as an older horse you have to carry over 10-0 in those races giving weight to younger and likely better horses.

He's now won 4 of his 6 handicaps and James Owen certainly knows how to place his horses well.

 

[Chesham]

Just had a look at the Dams Progeny and looks like they can carry weight . Could be worth checking out when the same question arises regarding unknown ability to carry weight.