Sorting A Card Out
- Thread starter Tufnel
- Start date
A few lessons from yesterday. Principally that Nursery handicaps, races that VDW definitely claimed to bet in as Soaf was "provided" early on in his letters, work a little differently to handicaps for older horses. The top of the weights tend to be more favoured and lots of unexposed horses suddenly find their true form on the back of less than inspiring efforts to qualify for their mark.
Yesterday I let that known situation fall to the back of my mind when I made my selection who had been beaten by such an unexposed sort Dreams Galore last time out in a 0-65 who was carrying 9-6 2nd in the weights to So Tempting who had just 8-5 and bottom of the weights. DG won next time out as joint top weight 9-6 in the same 0-65 grade. So Tempting was carrying 8-11 6 lb more yesterday as bottom weight in a race where there were class droppers higher up the weights. Same grade as Chepstow but the top weights were dropping in grade where as DG had not been when beating So Tempting.
The point being that the low weights in the examples who hadn't won had been up against class droppers and/or next time out winners in that last run.
As for the others, I think Belle Of Kt fell foul of it's rider who somehow managed to run up the rear of another horse in the straight when making headway that to an an old hand like myself looked for all the world a winning Lingfield finish. If Saffie had been on BOK she'd have won the race with that horse too.
The last race at Wolves was a painful on the nod photo. The price collapse was huge though. I was thinking 2/1, 15/8 not 5/4.
Anyway, I'm posting below my notes on all of my considerations today. I didn't post the same yesterday and of course one of them went in, but it might help show what I'm looking for rather than me writing it all out again. Excuse the rough quality of the shorthand. They are literally just noting the factors I think may prove significant.
Lingfield
4:08 My Old Mate (1) (9-7) won by 4 lens (9-7) 8/15 F same grade
5:52 Due Date (2) (9-5) winner won 2nd NTO and prev 2nd in higher class
Happier (1) (9-2) won by 1.5 lens (9-4) 9/2 slightly better grade
6:22 Von Krolock (2) (9-2) 2nd (9-4) 11/2 to winner (9-9) 2/1 prev 5th higher class but not run since but 3rd NTO winner
Chepstow
3:50 Risen Again (2) (9-4) 2nd (9-7) 12/1 to winner (9-1) 13/8 2nd F 2nd LTO same class tho 0-60 as opposed to today's 0-65 but not run since.
4:25 Honky Tonk Girl (1) (8-12) won by 2.25 lens (8-13) 5/6 F Nov race
Von Trotter (1) (9-2) won by 2.25 lens (9-6) 100/30 0-60 compared to 0-75 today
Espona Boy (1) (9-5) won by 0.5 lens (9-1) 5/1 0-70 compared to 0-75 today
Rogue Exile (1) (9-8) won by neck (9-7) 1/3 F Maiden
5:00 Marietta (2) (8-6) winner prev 8th same class not run since
Arnaz (1) (8-13) won by 2.25 lens (8-13) 9/1 0-60 compared to 0-65 today
Benavente (1) (9-4) won by 3.25 lens (9-2) 10/1 claimer
Calafrio (1) (9-8) won by 2 lens (9-9) 2/1 0-60
Wolverhampton
6:30 Inside Story (2) (9-6) 2nd by neck (9-3) 5/1 winner (10-1) 11/4 F won maiden LTO same class not run since. Same 0-85 grade.
Percy’s Lad (1) (10-5 4ex) won by shd (9-10) 5/1 0-85
7:00 Sunshine And Roses (2) (8-13) 2nd (8-11) 11/1 by 2.75 lens to winner (9-11) 7/2 prev 5th 0-70
Blue Celestial (2) (9-8) 2nd by 0.75 lens (9-1) 0-70 8/1 to winner (9-6) 100/30 3rd Nov not run since
Samrar Start (1) (9-13) won by 1.25 lens (9-9) 4/1 0-60 compared to 0-70 today
Gladiadora (4) (9-13) BF lto in a race with NTO winners
8:00 0-75
Kakirra (2) (9-0) BF 2nd by 0.75 lens (8-12) Ev F to winner (8-12) 3/1 0-80 prev 0-75 11/10 F not run since
Dance Time (2) (10-0) 2nd by 5.5 lens (9-7) 15/2 0-85 to winner (9-2) 6/4 F Prev 4th 0-85 11/4 not run since
Flash Kozo (1) (9-3) won by 1.25 lens (9-1) 9/4 0-70
So Alex (225) (10-2) 5th 11/4 0-85. Prev 2nd 0.75 lens (9-8) 11/2 0-75 with subsequent winners in 0-90 & 0-75
Out of all these noted, At Chepstow the best one seems to be Risen Again in the 3:50.
Lingfield shows that Von Krolock in the 6:22 has the most factors going. Though there is a possibility of a 2 horse book in the 5:52 with Happier and Due Date.
Wolverhampton Gladiadora looks the best with Inside Story 2nd best. The 8:00 has 3yo complications for So Alex and it looks too competitive.
Comparing the prospects of the best ones from each meeting leaves me with Gladiadora, Von Krolock and Inside Story.
So those are the 3 I'm backing today.
Yesterday I let that known situation fall to the back of my mind when I made my selection who had been beaten by such an unexposed sort Dreams Galore last time out in a 0-65 who was carrying 9-6 2nd in the weights to So Tempting who had just 8-5 and bottom of the weights. DG won next time out as joint top weight 9-6 in the same 0-65 grade. So Tempting was carrying 8-11 6 lb more yesterday as bottom weight in a race where there were class droppers higher up the weights. Same grade as Chepstow but the top weights were dropping in grade where as DG had not been when beating So Tempting.
The point being that the low weights in the examples who hadn't won had been up against class droppers and/or next time out winners in that last run.
As for the others, I think Belle Of Kt fell foul of it's rider who somehow managed to run up the rear of another horse in the straight when making headway that to an an old hand like myself looked for all the world a winning Lingfield finish. If Saffie had been on BOK she'd have won the race with that horse too.
The last race at Wolves was a painful on the nod photo. The price collapse was huge though. I was thinking 2/1, 15/8 not 5/4.
Anyway, I'm posting below my notes on all of my considerations today. I didn't post the same yesterday and of course one of them went in, but it might help show what I'm looking for rather than me writing it all out again. Excuse the rough quality of the shorthand. They are literally just noting the factors I think may prove significant.
Lingfield
4:08 My Old Mate (1) (9-7) won by 4 lens (9-7) 8/15 F same grade
5:52 Due Date (2) (9-5) winner won 2nd NTO and prev 2nd in higher class
Happier (1) (9-2) won by 1.5 lens (9-4) 9/2 slightly better grade
6:22 Von Krolock (2) (9-2) 2nd (9-4) 11/2 to winner (9-9) 2/1 prev 5th higher class but not run since but 3rd NTO winner
Chepstow
3:50 Risen Again (2) (9-4) 2nd (9-7) 12/1 to winner (9-1) 13/8 2nd F 2nd LTO same class tho 0-60 as opposed to today's 0-65 but not run since.
4:25 Honky Tonk Girl (1) (8-12) won by 2.25 lens (8-13) 5/6 F Nov race
Von Trotter (1) (9-2) won by 2.25 lens (9-6) 100/30 0-60 compared to 0-75 today
Espona Boy (1) (9-5) won by 0.5 lens (9-1) 5/1 0-70 compared to 0-75 today
Rogue Exile (1) (9-8) won by neck (9-7) 1/3 F Maiden
5:00 Marietta (2) (8-6) winner prev 8th same class not run since
Arnaz (1) (8-13) won by 2.25 lens (8-13) 9/1 0-60 compared to 0-65 today
Benavente (1) (9-4) won by 3.25 lens (9-2) 10/1 claimer
Calafrio (1) (9-8) won by 2 lens (9-9) 2/1 0-60
Wolverhampton
6:30 Inside Story (2) (9-6) 2nd by neck (9-3) 5/1 winner (10-1) 11/4 F won maiden LTO same class not run since. Same 0-85 grade.
Percy’s Lad (1) (10-5 4ex) won by shd (9-10) 5/1 0-85
7:00 Sunshine And Roses (2) (8-13) 2nd (8-11) 11/1 by 2.75 lens to winner (9-11) 7/2 prev 5th 0-70
Blue Celestial (2) (9-8) 2nd by 0.75 lens (9-1) 0-70 8/1 to winner (9-6) 100/30 3rd Nov not run since
Samrar Start (1) (9-13) won by 1.25 lens (9-9) 4/1 0-60 compared to 0-70 today
Gladiadora (4) (9-13) BF lto in a race with NTO winners
8:00 0-75
Kakirra (2) (9-0) BF 2nd by 0.75 lens (8-12) Ev F to winner (8-12) 3/1 0-80 prev 0-75 11/10 F not run since
Dance Time (2) (10-0) 2nd by 5.5 lens (9-7) 15/2 0-85 to winner (9-2) 6/4 F Prev 4th 0-85 11/4 not run since
Flash Kozo (1) (9-3) won by 1.25 lens (9-1) 9/4 0-70
So Alex (225) (10-2) 5th 11/4 0-85. Prev 2nd 0.75 lens (9-8) 11/2 0-75 with subsequent winners in 0-90 & 0-75
Out of all these noted, At Chepstow the best one seems to be Risen Again in the 3:50.
Lingfield shows that Von Krolock in the 6:22 has the most factors going. Though there is a possibility of a 2 horse book in the 5:52 with Happier and Due Date.
Wolverhampton Gladiadora looks the best with Inside Story 2nd best. The 8:00 has 3yo complications for So Alex and it looks too competitive.
Comparing the prospects of the best ones from each meeting leaves me with Gladiadora, Von Krolock and Inside Story.
So those are the 3 I'm backing today.
York
1:50
*Air Force One (3) (8-13) 3rd by 0.75 lens (9-2) 9/1 to winner (9-7) 100/30 F 0-105 prev 3rd 0-95 7/2 NTO 2nd in higher class by a head 0-108
*Gold Star Hero (2) (9-2) 2nd by 1.5 lens (9-8) 20/1 to winner (10-0) 4/1 0-105 prev unpl 0-108 higher class, no runs since
Naana’s Sparkle (2) (9-3) 2nd by hd (9-0) 8/1 to winner (8-12) 6/1 0-105 prev won 0-90 not run since
Trefor (1) (9-4 4ex) won by 0.5 len (9-4) 13/2 0-97
Corolla Point (1) (9-8) won by shd (10-0) 3/1 F 0-100
Stratusnine (2) (9-12) 2nd by hd (9-5) 25/1 higher class to winner (9-0) 16/1 0-108 prev 7th 0-110 not run since
3:00
*Christmas Day (2) (9-7) 2nd by 1.75 lens (9-2) 4/1 to winner (9-2) 7/4 F G1 prev won G3 2/9 F NTO higher class 3rd G1 3/1
3:35
Item (1) (9-1) won by 2.75 lens (9-2) 3/1 G2
Constitution River (1) (9-1) won by 3 lens (8-13) 8/11 F G1
Zaydann (1) (9-8) won by 0.5 len (9-3) 30/100 F G3
*Ombudsman (1) (9-8) won by 4 lens (9-2) 11/10 F G1
4:10
Mountain Road (3) (8-7) 3rd by 1.5 lens (9-3) 10/1 to winner (9-6) 17/2 0-100 prev 5th 20/1 0-105 no runs since
Ride The Thunder (3) (8-13) 3rd by 1.25 lens (9-5) 13/8 F to winner (9-3) 13/2 0-96 prev 6th 3/1 F 0-88 NTO 2nd 11/10 F 0-100 higher class
Shrimp Shady (2) (9-1) 2nd by 1 len (9-6) 11/10 F to winner (9-6) 17/2 0-100 prev 5th 20/1 0-105 no runs since
Boatswain (1) (9-2) won by 13 lens (9-7) 6/5 F 0-90
Team Player (2) (9-4) 2nd by nose (9-8) 5/1 to winner (9-3) 13/2 0-96 prev 6th 3/1 F 0-88 NTO 2nd 11/10 F 0-100 higher class
*Small Fry (2) (9-6) 2nd by 0.75 lens (8-13) 6/1 to winner (9-8) 5/1 0-105 prev 6th 3/1 F 0-105 same class no runs since
Kirchner (1) (9-7) won by 4 lens (9-5) 11/4 0-90
*Valedictory (115) (9-5) 5th by 6 lens (9-2) 5/2 F to winner (9-8) 5/1 0-105 prev 6th 3/1 F 0-105 same class no runs since
4:45
Dolas Dream (2) (8-2) 2nd by hd (9-5) 100/30 F to winner (91) 4/1 0-80 prev 5th 10/1 0-85 not run since
Zain Primus (1) (8-9) won by 1 len (9-11) 5/4 Novice
*Tricky Tel (2) (8-10) 2nd by 1.5 lens (9-3) 10/1 to winner (9-9) 4/6 F 0-95 prev 2nd 8/1 higher class 0-105 NTO 2nd 6/5 F Listed and 5th horse won NTO lower class.
Miss Yechance (3) (8-8) 3rd by 2 lens (9-4) 17/2 to winner (9-8) 5/1 JF 0-95 prev 9th 16/1 Listed race higher class NTO
*Baker Blue (3) (9-1) 3rd by 1.75 lens (9-7) 6/1 to winner (9-7) 2/1 F 0-105 prev 3rd 5/1 0-100 no runs since
Patan (3) (9-6) 3rd by 1 len (9-4) 17/2 to winner (9-9) 15/8 F listed prev 2nd Cold 4/6 F sim class not run since
*Naana’s Shadow (1) (9-9) Won by 1.75 lens (9-8) 5/1 JF 0-95
Carlisle
4:20
*Native Instinct (1) (9-5) won by 1.25 lens (9-2) 5/2 2F 0-80
King Of Fury (1) (9-8) won by neck (9-9) 12/1 0-85
4:55
Yellow Diamonds (2) (9-8) 2nd by 2.25 lens (9-8) 7/1 to winner (9-7) 7/2 F 0-65 prev 2nd 0-65 higher class not run since
5:30
*Hostility (1) (9-6) won by 1 len (9-13) 2/1 F 0-65
Ephron (1) (9-10) won by neck (8-10) 11/1 0-75
Keep An Eye On It (1) (9-13) won by 1.25 lens (9-7) 3/1 F 0-70
Between Me And You (1) (10-2) won by 4.5 lens (9-8) 5/1 0-65
At York I see the best bet as Ombudsman with 2nd best being Christmas Day.
I also think both Small Fry and Valedictory are a good 2 horse book.
Over at Carlisle Hostility looks best with Native Instinct 2nd best.
I'm probably pushing the luck today but I'm going to back Ombudsman, Christmas Day, Small Fry/Valedictory, Hostility and Native Instinct.
All of the horses marked with * are the ones I think have the live chances based on the factors.
I'm tempted to have a small bet on Tricky Tel at York because the price looks too big to resist. (Which means I almost certainly will have a tenner on it).
Good luck all.
1:50
*Air Force One (3) (8-13) 3rd by 0.75 lens (9-2) 9/1 to winner (9-7) 100/30 F 0-105 prev 3rd 0-95 7/2 NTO 2nd in higher class by a head 0-108
*Gold Star Hero (2) (9-2) 2nd by 1.5 lens (9-8) 20/1 to winner (10-0) 4/1 0-105 prev unpl 0-108 higher class, no runs since
Naana’s Sparkle (2) (9-3) 2nd by hd (9-0) 8/1 to winner (8-12) 6/1 0-105 prev won 0-90 not run since
Trefor (1) (9-4 4ex) won by 0.5 len (9-4) 13/2 0-97
Corolla Point (1) (9-8) won by shd (10-0) 3/1 F 0-100
Stratusnine (2) (9-12) 2nd by hd (9-5) 25/1 higher class to winner (9-0) 16/1 0-108 prev 7th 0-110 not run since
3:00
*Christmas Day (2) (9-7) 2nd by 1.75 lens (9-2) 4/1 to winner (9-2) 7/4 F G1 prev won G3 2/9 F NTO higher class 3rd G1 3/1
3:35
Item (1) (9-1) won by 2.75 lens (9-2) 3/1 G2
Constitution River (1) (9-1) won by 3 lens (8-13) 8/11 F G1
Zaydann (1) (9-8) won by 0.5 len (9-3) 30/100 F G3
*Ombudsman (1) (9-8) won by 4 lens (9-2) 11/10 F G1
4:10
Mountain Road (3) (8-7) 3rd by 1.5 lens (9-3) 10/1 to winner (9-6) 17/2 0-100 prev 5th 20/1 0-105 no runs since
Ride The Thunder (3) (8-13) 3rd by 1.25 lens (9-5) 13/8 F to winner (9-3) 13/2 0-96 prev 6th 3/1 F 0-88 NTO 2nd 11/10 F 0-100 higher class
Shrimp Shady (2) (9-1) 2nd by 1 len (9-6) 11/10 F to winner (9-6) 17/2 0-100 prev 5th 20/1 0-105 no runs since
Boatswain (1) (9-2) won by 13 lens (9-7) 6/5 F 0-90
Team Player (2) (9-4) 2nd by nose (9-8) 5/1 to winner (9-3) 13/2 0-96 prev 6th 3/1 F 0-88 NTO 2nd 11/10 F 0-100 higher class
*Small Fry (2) (9-6) 2nd by 0.75 lens (8-13) 6/1 to winner (9-8) 5/1 0-105 prev 6th 3/1 F 0-105 same class no runs since
Kirchner (1) (9-7) won by 4 lens (9-5) 11/4 0-90
*Valedictory (115) (9-5) 5th by 6 lens (9-2) 5/2 F to winner (9-8) 5/1 0-105 prev 6th 3/1 F 0-105 same class no runs since
4:45
Dolas Dream (2) (8-2) 2nd by hd (9-5) 100/30 F to winner (91) 4/1 0-80 prev 5th 10/1 0-85 not run since
Zain Primus (1) (8-9) won by 1 len (9-11) 5/4 Novice
*Tricky Tel (2) (8-10) 2nd by 1.5 lens (9-3) 10/1 to winner (9-9) 4/6 F 0-95 prev 2nd 8/1 higher class 0-105 NTO 2nd 6/5 F Listed and 5th horse won NTO lower class.
Miss Yechance (3) (8-8) 3rd by 2 lens (9-4) 17/2 to winner (9-8) 5/1 JF 0-95 prev 9th 16/1 Listed race higher class NTO
*Baker Blue (3) (9-1) 3rd by 1.75 lens (9-7) 6/1 to winner (9-7) 2/1 F 0-105 prev 3rd 5/1 0-100 no runs since
Patan (3) (9-6) 3rd by 1 len (9-4) 17/2 to winner (9-9) 15/8 F listed prev 2nd Cold 4/6 F sim class not run since
*Naana’s Shadow (1) (9-9) Won by 1.75 lens (9-8) 5/1 JF 0-95
Carlisle
4:20
*Native Instinct (1) (9-5) won by 1.25 lens (9-2) 5/2 2F 0-80
King Of Fury (1) (9-8) won by neck (9-9) 12/1 0-85
4:55
Yellow Diamonds (2) (9-8) 2nd by 2.25 lens (9-8) 7/1 to winner (9-7) 7/2 F 0-65 prev 2nd 0-65 higher class not run since
5:30
*Hostility (1) (9-6) won by 1 len (9-13) 2/1 F 0-65
Ephron (1) (9-10) won by neck (8-10) 11/1 0-75
Keep An Eye On It (1) (9-13) won by 1.25 lens (9-7) 3/1 F 0-70
Between Me And You (1) (10-2) won by 4.5 lens (9-8) 5/1 0-65
At York I see the best bet as Ombudsman with 2nd best being Christmas Day.
I also think both Small Fry and Valedictory are a good 2 horse book.
Over at Carlisle Hostility looks best with Native Instinct 2nd best.
I'm probably pushing the luck today but I'm going to back Ombudsman, Christmas Day, Small Fry/Valedictory, Hostility and Native Instinct.
All of the horses marked with * are the ones I think have the live chances based on the factors.
I'm tempted to have a small bet on Tricky Tel at York because the price looks too big to resist. (Which means I almost certainly will have a tenner on it).
Good luck all.