• Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a free 7 day trial of Horseracebase here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Horseracebase so help is always available if needed, as well as dedicated section of the fourm here.
    Best Wishes
    AR

Smithys Max rating

Smithy

Smithy

Yearling
Afternoon all,

Sorry for my lack of input lately, health hasn't been the best but I'm OK now.

It's given me time to search the forum and I've been playing around with a few ideas that I've found and the one thing that struck a chord with me was @Cheshams post of the rules of Max's pro punting from the old gummy thread. Now many moons ago I did follow this with great interest and I resurrected my interest in the idea. I don't use all the details as Max posted but the main rating is basically formed from the trainer, jockey details and then checked against form.

So today I have looked at 2 races from Worcester.

2.50 Handicap Chase

200 Theo 11/4 (1pt win)
146 Adrrastos 10/3 (1pt win)

Now this race I would bet on Theo as a decent single, the only thing to temper my bet was the fact that it hasn't run for 157 days. So that has made my reading for the race diluted slightly. So a small win single on the two.

3.50 Handicap Hurdle
157 More Buck's 12/1 (1/2pt ew)
134 Jimmy Rabbitte 7/2 (1pt win)
99 Hattab 15/2 (1/2 ew)
This race is obviously tighter on the data, but again a split of stakes should be the play.

Let's see how they go, 5pts outlay in total so lets see how we go!

Smithy
 
Smithy said:
Thanks dave58 dave58 just a shame the bets where a bit disappointing today. Anyway onward and upward and look for a few races tomorrow.
Click to expand...


Nothing like the first post curse to kick you in the teeth... :headbang:

“First post curse”.... we’re old friends me and him....... a winner or two will soon sort you out... :handgestures-thumbup:
 
Hi arkle55 arkle55

Here is the way I use Max's method from Gummys board

In simple terms the rating measures the trainers win percentages against a 10% minimum strike rate.

So I use a more simplified version than the one Max used any strike rate below 10% is thrown out, I use the Racing Post for all the data but I can't find a class % so I have had to bypass that.

Step 1 Check trainers record at the course
Step 2 Check trainers record at the distance
Step 3 Check trainers record for the race type (ie handicap, Gp1, etc)
Step 4 Check trainers record with the jockey.

Step 5 Check jockey at the course
Step 6 Check jockey at the distance
Step 7 Check jockey at the race type


Check that the trainer has had horses winning or placed in the last 14 days for the current well being of the stable.

Now we should have a shortlist of runners and we now compare previous form against what it is set to race against today. We check the race value against the current race value, we compare the weight to be carried, we then check the class of todays race against the previous races.

So as an example yesterday I used Theo as a selection

It was Hand. Chase - C2 - worth 130 - 6 runners

Theo's Race Values
285,619,188 (all races are in excess of 130) so that would be +18

Weight 11-3
11-0; 10-7; 11-8 (-6)

Class 2
C1;C1;C2 (+12)

So the final figure for Theo was 1116

Hope that helps arkle55 arkle55. As always pleased to hear improvements or suggestions.

All the best
Smithy
 
Hi All,

Due to limited time today I've just looked at the 6.00 Newcastle and the one I like is the Sir M. Stoute horse DEAL A DOLLAR 1pt win - its available widely at 2/1 at the time of posting, use BOG.

Smithy
 
I did argue with myself about Dawaaleeb in the 4.00 Redcar its a great price at 11/1 so I will have a small bet EW on it.

Good Luck all
Smithy
 
Smithy Smithy, i was looking at the 4.0 Redcar last night. I did not come to any conclusions but i did notice,

Redcar - 1 mile - Class 4 - H'caps - Age Restrictions 3yo+

There had been 39 races with age groups between 3 & 8 winning all 39 races. When i looked at September and i'm not sure as to why 5yo are 0/20 with 4 placed and 7yo were 0/11 with 3 placed. 3yo & 8yo come out best. Sorry for the late post.


Arkle
 
Afternoon all,

For some reason I thought I'd posted about the 3.25 this afternoon but I obviously hadn't!! Anyway I won't dwell on it LOL!!

I have also looked at the 5.45 Kelso.

I have on my shortlist Tidal Watch, Ballyvic Boru, Sporting Press, Beautiful Ben

So in this race I'm looking at Ballyvic Boru as my top rated selection and I will play EW.

I would have to mention Tidal Watch also as the form only includes 2 chase pieces of form and its 2nd top rated but not that far behind.

Good luck all
Smithy
 
Evening all,

Well disappointment in the 5.45 today just touched out of the places.

On to tomorrow and I've looked at a few races.

3.30 Ayr - Iconic Choice 9/2
3.20 Yarmouth - Summer Moon 15/2
4.20 Yarmouth - Harrovian 2/1

Good Luck tomorrow
Smithy
 
Evening all,

A little better today 2 nice winners at 15/2 (backed in to 9/4) and 2/1

Tomorrow one bet at the moment

2.20 Newbury - Blakeney Point 7/2 in a few places 10/3 generally

Good luck all
Smithy
 
Hi all,

Disappointing run in the end from Blakeney Point. But onward and upward...

Today I've looked at 3 races and to be fair all are tight but the best rated are given below...

3.25 Leicester Shamshan EW available at 7/1 at the time of typing
4.30 Leicester Nantucket is available at 5/2 so win bet. In the same race I would give a little mention to Elena which appeared well on the rating and is a great price at 16/1 very small ew.
3.15 Warwick I have Lovato as top and is 4/1. I also like Potterman for a small rev FC.

Good luck all.
Smithy
 
Evening all,

Mixed bag today nice winner of the 3.25 at 7/1 (BOG). Nice run by Elena placed at 20/1 and a decent run by Nantucket after a drift out to 11/2 but finished 2nd. Lovato was disappointing.

Anyway I'm looking at a jumps race tomorrow 3.50 Warwick Blairs Cove ew 7/1

Good luck all.
Smithy
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top