Selections in the style of Van Der Wheil
- Thread starter Jackform
- Start date
Chesham
Sire
downey
Yearling
Gents
The Ayr Gold Cup is always very difficult but I have had a good look at Gabriels Lads run in the Workingham at Ascot on 22/6/13 and he had to tack right across the field to get to the far side and he ran very well considering, this run establishes his ability to perform well at this level. His last two runs over 7f are encouraging and if the ground remains soft he wont be stopping at the end of the 6 furlongs. I have had a win and place bet with Hills who are paying out on the first five.
Good punting tomorrow.
Downey
The Ayr Gold Cup is always very difficult but I have had a good look at Gabriels Lads run in the Workingham at Ascot on 22/6/13 and he had to tack right across the field to get to the far side and he ran very well considering, this run establishes his ability to perform well at this level. His last two runs over 7f are encouraging and if the ground remains soft he wont be stopping at the end of the 6 furlongs. I have had a win and place bet with Hills who are paying out on the first five.
Good punting tomorrow.
Downey
formtheory
Stallion
Two horses I am interested in tomorrow are Jallota and Willie the Whipper.
Jallota went on my list when finishing behind No Nay Never in a group 1 event that has produced at least 2 good winners since in Rizeena and Brown Sugar, although Jallota is one of the more exposed runners the form speaks for itself!
This is only a class 2 event but the prize of £50,000 should be worth winning for Jallota.
Price at 5/4 at the moment with Bill Hill, not sure about Betfair yet.
Willie The Whipper has been facing top class opposition at further than is ideal, and the ground was too firm last time out but he still ran with credit, the drop back to 10f on soft ground carrying 4lb less weight against lesser opposition should see him go very close.
Good luck all tomorrow !
Jallota went on my list when finishing behind No Nay Never in a group 1 event that has produced at least 2 good winners since in Rizeena and Brown Sugar, although Jallota is one of the more exposed runners the form speaks for itself!
This is only a class 2 event but the prize of £50,000 should be worth winning for Jallota.
Price at 5/4 at the moment with Bill Hill, not sure about Betfair yet.
Willie The Whipper has been facing top class opposition at further than is ideal, and the ground was too firm last time out but he still ran with credit, the drop back to 10f on soft ground carrying 4lb less weight against lesser opposition should see him go very close.
Good luck all tomorrow !
formtheory
Stallion
Hi Nagwa,
I base my list on the formula V.D.W gave, he said many times a horse was not placed to win a particular race and this horse will be placed until he comes to the boil.
If you look at Jallota, was he expected to beat No Nay Never?
His odds suggest not, as did his ability rating.
The form of the race is rock solid so any horses that appears to be on the boil should be noted and watched, until placed to win.
Tawhid interestingly ran at Newbury 7F in his penultimate race by Gregorian, then upped to 8f , where he had a bad trip and failed to make a challenge.
He was then dropped in trip and class carrying only 1lb more physical weight, De Sousa booked and as mentioned the connections had aimed at the race in each of the last 4 years!
I like Jallota today but am sure of the price, against unexposed runners.
I base my list on the formula V.D.W gave, he said many times a horse was not placed to win a particular race and this horse will be placed until he comes to the boil.
If you look at Jallota, was he expected to beat No Nay Never?
His odds suggest not, as did his ability rating.
The form of the race is rock solid so any horses that appears to be on the boil should be noted and watched, until placed to win.
Tawhid interestingly ran at Newbury 7F in his penultimate race by Gregorian, then upped to 8f , where he had a bad trip and failed to make a challenge.
He was then dropped in trip and class carrying only 1lb more physical weight, De Sousa booked and as mentioned the connections had aimed at the race in each of the last 4 years!
I like Jallota today but am sure of the price, against unexposed runners.
formtheory
Stallion
Ayr 3.15
Remember you looks decent here with a good run on her second start back from a break, beaten by the decent sort Great White Eagle, that form is consistent and strong.
She is a soft ground winner, carries 2lb less weight this time out and faces her own sex.
My bets today are Remember you and Willie the Whipper.
1pt win on each
Jallota will be left due to the price on offer.
Remember you looks decent here with a good run on her second start back from a break, beaten by the decent sort Great White Eagle, that form is consistent and strong.
She is a soft ground winner, carries 2lb less weight this time out and faces her own sex.
My bets today are Remember you and Willie the Whipper.
1pt win on each
Jallota will be left due to the price on offer.
formtheory
Stallion
Cheers chilled!
Good luck today if backing anything!
Take care
Paul.
Good luck today if backing anything!
Take care
Paul.
mtoto
Gelding
Newm 3:40 1 Eagle Rock 2 Cosimo de Medici 3 Silver Samba
Ayr 4 :25 1 Brae Hill 2 Osteopathic Remedy 3 Two For Two
Newm 5:55 1 Clockmaker 2 My Freedom 3 Brownsea Brink
3:40 18 runners and none of them with a currant performance good enough to make the d/base, not for me .
4:25 I have this between the top two. Brae Hill while he can handle soft going he is better on good, Osteopathic Remedy won this last season and again can handle heavier going but best on good. Did think about a win book but leaving it.
5:55 This race doesn't look right for Clockmaker based on the course, and the only other proven performer My Freedom is hard to weigh up. The course... oh that settles that just been pulled out
Be Lucky
Ayr 4 :25 1 Brae Hill 2 Osteopathic Remedy 3 Two For Two
Newm 5:55 1 Clockmaker 2 My Freedom 3 Brownsea Brink
3:40 18 runners and none of them with a currant performance good enough to make the d/base, not for me .
4:25 I have this between the top two. Brae Hill while he can handle soft going he is better on good, Osteopathic Remedy won this last season and again can handle heavier going but best on good. Did think about a win book but leaving it.
5:55 This race doesn't look right for Clockmaker based on the course, and the only other proven performer My Freedom is hard to weigh up. The course... oh that settles that just been pulled out
Be Lucky
Chesham
Sire
Going Change.
Ayr now Good to Soft (Good in places)
AYR - Flat (Updated:21/09/2013 at 07:13:17)
Going
Good to Soft, Soft in Places
(GoingStick: Whole track average: 8.7; Sprint Course: S/S: 8.8;
C: 8.7; F/S: 8.6 on Saturday at 06:00)
Stalls
6f: Centre
Rails
Home bend rail moved out 6m adding approx. 18yds to race
distances 7f and further.
Weather
Dry past 24hrs
Sat - Overcast, possible light rain/drizzle (< 1mm)
Other
Whole track vertidrained since last fixture (12th August).
Ayr now Good to Soft (Good in places)
AYR - Flat (Updated:21/09/2013 at 07:13:17)
Going
Good to Soft, Soft in Places
(GoingStick: Whole track average: 8.7; Sprint Course: S/S: 8.8;
C: 8.7; F/S: 8.6 on Saturday at 06:00)
Stalls
6f: Centre
Rails
Home bend rail moved out 6m adding approx. 18yds to race
distances 7f and further.
Weather
Dry past 24hrs
Sat - Overcast, possible light rain/drizzle (< 1mm)
Other
Whole track vertidrained since last fixture (12th August).
chilled
Yearling
Been looking at a few, Saturday I find difficult.
Front Page News.. Newbury 5.10 .. Not sure the soft ground will be suitable.
Jackform
Mare
Won yesterday £90 @ 5/1 = +£450, debit 0, bank 2008pts.
The above being the case I thought I would draw a line under that approach before it gets boring just grinding it out every day and try something slightly different. This from a VDW letter to the Forum, March 18 1980, it was a resume of some of the letters published to date and captioned, ’Flying Dutchman Believes in Consistency’
I quote. ”Initially I submitted a method based on two factors with which individuals may or may not agree. First, consistent horses win a high percentage of races and second, the first five or six in the betting forecast contain a high percentage of winners. These two factors combined narrow the field down to an area of prospective winners but they are not the only ones. It is good to see some readers have pushed the idea around and devised other ways of using it.”
Later in the same letter, “Test any set of ratings yourself and you will find a certain percentage top-rated winners and indeed, it is wise not to stray from the top five or six when selecting wagers. Because there is this variation between ratings I prefer to use two sets which are compiled on different lines……….Study of the form and ratings can shoe a consistent to be out of its depth , as for instance Billbroker in the St Leger and equally that Son Of Love was a good thing in the same race.
Readers who rely on ratings may deduce that by taking the top five or six rated and coupling them with the five or six most consistent horses in the field they will trap a lot of winners. Try it and you will find it interesting. In non-handicaps may I suggest sticking to the top four rated.”
My approach will be to consider the first five or six consistency ratings to be confirmed by both RPR and Formcast up to four possibles in non-handicap races and six in handicaps. Then being reduced to a final selection by checking out the form of their last race. The VDW staking plan as before with a starting bank of 200 points at £10 a point for paper trading.
Catterick 4.30 on the basis of 66% winning form in the past three outings.
Villa Royale – dropped 11lbs never involved trailed off 7 of 9 -30 lengths Chester 0-85 good
Ailsa Craig - dropped 28lbs (also 7lb claimer) chased led kept on strongly won 1 of 11 +6 lengths Haydock 0-70 GF
Bayan Kasirga – dropped 15lbs (also 3lb claimer) headway soon led kept on well won +3.5 lengths Musselburgh 0-70 good.
The selection is Ailsa Craig 1pt £10) bet.
The above being the case I thought I would draw a line under that approach before it gets boring just grinding it out every day and try something slightly different. This from a VDW letter to the Forum, March 18 1980, it was a resume of some of the letters published to date and captioned, ’Flying Dutchman Believes in Consistency’
I quote. ”Initially I submitted a method based on two factors with which individuals may or may not agree. First, consistent horses win a high percentage of races and second, the first five or six in the betting forecast contain a high percentage of winners. These two factors combined narrow the field down to an area of prospective winners but they are not the only ones. It is good to see some readers have pushed the idea around and devised other ways of using it.”
Later in the same letter, “Test any set of ratings yourself and you will find a certain percentage top-rated winners and indeed, it is wise not to stray from the top five or six when selecting wagers. Because there is this variation between ratings I prefer to use two sets which are compiled on different lines……….Study of the form and ratings can shoe a consistent to be out of its depth , as for instance Billbroker in the St Leger and equally that Son Of Love was a good thing in the same race.
Readers who rely on ratings may deduce that by taking the top five or six rated and coupling them with the five or six most consistent horses in the field they will trap a lot of winners. Try it and you will find it interesting. In non-handicaps may I suggest sticking to the top four rated.”
My approach will be to consider the first five or six consistency ratings to be confirmed by both RPR and Formcast up to four possibles in non-handicap races and six in handicaps. Then being reduced to a final selection by checking out the form of their last race. The VDW staking plan as before with a starting bank of 200 points at £10 a point for paper trading.
Catterick 4.30 on the basis of 66% winning form in the past three outings.
Villa Royale – dropped 11lbs never involved trailed off 7 of 9 -30 lengths Chester 0-85 good
Ailsa Craig - dropped 28lbs (also 7lb claimer) chased led kept on strongly won 1 of 11 +6 lengths Haydock 0-70 GF
Bayan Kasirga – dropped 15lbs (also 3lb claimer) headway soon led kept on well won +3.5 lengths Musselburgh 0-70 good.
The selection is Ailsa Craig 1pt £10) bet.
formtheory
Stallion
Cheers Chilled!
Got a run for my money at least! He was obviously in form, I felt if there was a bit more pace, he would have got there.
Got a run for my money at least! He was obviously in form, I felt if there was a bit more pace, he would have got there.
formtheory
Stallion
Hi all!
Not really a V.D.W selection as such but thought I would post him up anyway!
Plumpton 4.00
Hawkhill looks a big price here, both trainer and jockey have good strike rates here and Hawkhill has conditions to suit.
He has moved up 10lbs in actual weight but moves down 10lbs in class.
Last time out ran 2nd behind the progressive Laudatory, who was Fav and received 7lbs from Hawkhill who was having only his second start back from a break.
LTO Laudatory also won as Fav, he won here stepping up in class and showing much improvement.
Hawkhill ran a decent race and should come on for it.
The race was ran at a true pace, using the speed ratings and RPR Hawkhill is clear.
He should out run his current price of 9.2.
E.W bet.
Not really a V.D.W selection as such but thought I would post him up anyway!
Plumpton 4.00
Hawkhill looks a big price here, both trainer and jockey have good strike rates here and Hawkhill has conditions to suit.
He has moved up 10lbs in actual weight but moves down 10lbs in class.
Last time out ran 2nd behind the progressive Laudatory, who was Fav and received 7lbs from Hawkhill who was having only his second start back from a break.
LTO Laudatory also won as Fav, he won here stepping up in class and showing much improvement.
Hawkhill ran a decent race and should come on for it.
The race was ran at a true pace, using the speed ratings and RPR Hawkhill is clear.
He should out run his current price of 9.2.
E.W bet.