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Seeking That Vital Edge

doomster said:
Keep the noise down mlmrob mlmrob , there is a hell of an echo where I am .

I cant even get a signal for Spotify !
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Let me know if you come across VDW hiding in one of the caves, he is probably dressed in a Free Dutch Forces Unifrom. I have also been told that the VDW Holy Grail is being protected in one of these caves by the Knights of The Gummy Templer

They are worried that Dan Brown might write his next Novel based on the VDW Scriptures
 
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This thread is now proving very esoterical and I'm not sure it is good for such a simple soul as me at my age.

Let us see if things have moved on since I first learned about horse- racing as a fifteen year old apprentice in 1951. During the half-hour lunch break using the Daily Mirror the tradesmen used to try and sort out suitable selections from winners and seconds last time out that could beat the forecast favourite. The bet was an 11/- (55p) yankee, which I took to a bookie's runner in a nearby caff. As I only earned £2.50 a week they looked like high-rollers to me.

Moving on, I have before me a printed sheet, possibly from the 90's, 'Planned in vestment by Analysis'

'The systematic approach is always the best. the punter who analyses and carefully weighs form stands a good chance of showing a profit. Fifty percent of winners are horses that were placed first, second or third last time out. A higher percentage were those that were in the first three recently e.g., within the last seven days'.

This is me today paper trading following that priceless advice and operating from the Daily Mail. A theoretical £55 yankee, all in the best possible taste.

3.00 Tina's Star
3.30 Maestro Mac
4.00 Sussex Girl
4.30 Noble Ballad
 
Anyone seeking an edge from permutation bets today could do worse than to follow the non-hcap favs at Sedgfield and Worcester IMO.

Sedgefield 2.00 and 4.20 must go off better than 1/1. 3.45 must go off better than 1/5.
Worcester 4.30, 5.05, 5.40 must go off better than 5/6

Seeking an advantage I assessed the Worcs 3.55 where the overround proved to be 122.4%, just a touch above my requirements.

Worcester (going forecast G)
3.55 Probability % 10.05 nos 10, 4, 1, 2, 3, 8 currently indicating an open contest, but I would still expect a win from these. Theoretical strong fav 9.4, contender 9/2, not expected greater than 9/1.

10. <15/2 (form odd required), 4/1 (early market)
4. <10.1, 4/1
1. <9/2, 6/1 Follow The Bear
2. <11/2, 6/1 Robin The Raven
3. <12/1, 15/2
8. <20/1, 9/1

9. <11/2, 10/1
5. <10/1, 12/1
7. <11/1, 14/1
6. <18/1 20/1

Comment: A bet would have been Follow The Bear each-way, or dutch Follow The Bear and Robin The Raven, or even level stakes 1, 2, 9, 5, 7, 6 if dithering :confused:.
 
Overall 4 from 6 non-hcaps yesterday but not worth the candle at the odds. Perhaps a level stake staking plan like the roulette polari for even money chances might be a way to go.
After swerving Carlisle due to the forecast heavy going the only race considerd was the Ludlow 3.00. It was forecast as a restricted race win from nos 1, 5, 3. None of them were forecast to provide an edge and currently the nearest being Darebin <3/1 required.
 
Cheltenham is a good card but too many runners in the hcaps for me and the same for Newbury.

Doncaster ( going forecast better than GS)
4.45 Probability % 10.05 nos 5, 4, 7, 10 currently indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 9/4, contender 9/2, not expected longer than 9/1.

5. <10/3 (form odds required) 2/1 (early market)
4. <5/1, 10/3
7. <6/1, 7/1 Armandihan
10. <18/1, 9/1

3. <15/2, 10/1
1. <9/1, 11/1
8. <12/1, 14/1
6. <25/1, 20/1
2. <15/1, 20/1
9. <18/1, 28/1

Comment: Ajman King Varian/Alzeni currently forecast as a strong fav but short opposite the risk, Armandihan looks a better selection each-way. A level stake on 7, 3, 1, 8, 2, 9 may not go amiss.
 
Forgotten I had been on here :crazy:, it's an age thing. I have been giving some thought to the betting market as the most important criterion for punters to consider when betting and looking back over the years.
In 1994 and old friend wrote in Smartsig that he had tested the Racing Post betting forecast for 5,000 races opposite the returned SP and that the forecast was usually 'spot on'. I wonder if that is the case nowadays.
In the same mag a contributor wrote that he had phoned the RP and inquired how the forecasts were compiled. The reply was that in the smaller (lower class) races it was done by Spotlight of the day, and for bigger (higher class) races it was usually a consensus of the major layers. This probably means it's an interpretation of form and whatever other information has been garnered from networking.
I considered the RP forecast for the Ludlow 2.00 and stripped out the overround (114%) to get an indication of the Spotlight opinion of the fair odds, that is no advantage to any player, on form.

Ludlow 2.00 (going forecast generally soft)
Market expected 10.20 nos 1, 2, 3, 6 was indicating an open contest,. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.
Column headings: 10.20 market - betting forecast - forecast fair odds.
1*. 9/4 - 5/2 - 3/1 Actinpieces
2*. 10/3 - 11/2 - 13/2 Aubusson
3*. 6/1 - 4/1 - 9/2 Sego Success (At the time this one looked the punters market choice)
4. 11/1 - 8/1 - 9/1
5. 9/1 - 8/1 - 9/1
6*. 4/1 - 5/1 - 6/1 Mystical Knight
7. 14/1 - 8/1 - 9/1
 
Still considering punter value when betting my opinion is that concentrating on improving strike-rate is easier (less difficult :)) than striving for an advantage at the odds. Take the Chel 2.25 where pro-form and the market indicate Bristol De Mai is probably the one to be on, whereas my chart of just the early market expected indicates the price advantage could be The Last Samuri, perhaps each-way?

Cheltenham ( going forecast soft)
2.25 Market expected 10.05 nos 1, 2, 6, 8 indicating a win restricted to these.

1. 11 (my form rating) 9/4 (my fair odds required) 7/4 (market at 10.05) Bristol De Mai (SP 7/4 3rd)
2. 8 - 7/1 - 13/2 (SP 7/1 won)
6. 7 - 15/1 - 9/2 (SP 9/2 2nd)
8. 14 - 1/1 - 5/1 The Last Samuri
 
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Sedgefield (going forecast soft with some heavy)
3.40 Market expected 09.10 nos 1, 2, 4, 7, 8 10 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 10/3, contender 13/2, not expected longer than 13/1.
1. 7 - 7/2 odds required - 4/1 early market. Cameron De Chaillac
2. 5 - 13/2 - 10/1. Banny's Lad
4. 8 - 11/4 - 9/1. Randy Pike
7. 8 - 11/4 - 11/4. Wazowski (D McCain)
8. 3 - 22/1 - 15/2
10. 4 - 11/1 - 6/1

Comment: Currently four to consider and if the market doesn't move I would omit Banny's Lad with a point each on the other three. All depends on checking the market nearer the off.
 
Wolverhampton (going forecast standard)
6.30 Market expected 09.50 nos 1, 4, 6 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 5/4, contender 5/2, not expected longer than 5/1.

1. 9 - 13/1 odds required - 3/1 early market
4. 14 - 11/8 - 5/1. Stellar Surprise
6. 15 - 1/1 - 5/2 Dellaguista

Comment: Dellaguista is rateded as a strong fav and is the selection if the market does not change significantly.
 
Got it wrong just taking the strong fav when Stellar Surprise also showed an edge by rating. Must bear that in mind.

Newcastle (going forecast soft with some heavy)
2.30 Market expected 09.35 nos 1, 2, 3 indicating an ope contest. Theoretical strong fav 5/4, contender 5/2, not expected longer than 5/1. Presented not considered as outside the long hcap.

1. 7 - 3/1 odds required (10/3 won) - 11/4 early market
2. 10 - 8/13 - 5/2 (15/8 lost) Kimberlite Candy (currently the only game in town)
3. 6 - 7/1 (4/1 2nd) - 10/3
 
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Proved OK yesterday with the two that qualified as bets near the off. I have swerved the jumps meetings today owing to the forecast heavy going.

Chelmsford (going forecast standard)
15.00 Market expected 09.15 nos 2, 3, 5, 7 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.

2. 11 = 15/8 required (3/1 early) (SP 3/1 lost) Time To Blossom
3. 5 = 20/1 (6/1)
5. 8 = 4/1 (3/1)(SP 9/2 won Ocean Of Love))
7. 12 = 6/4 (10/3) (SP 7/2 lost) Nurse Nightingale

Comment: Just wait now to see how the market develops. (Worked out OK 1 point on each 4.5 won - 2 = +2.5)
 
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Kempton (going forecast standard)
19.30 Market expected 09.50 nos 2, 3, 6, 7, 8 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 5/2, contender 5/1, not expeted longer than 10/1.

2. 4 = 22/1 req (9/1 early)
3. 8 = 10/3 (11/4)
6. 5 = 10/1 (6/1)
7. 12 = 6/4 (4/1) Thaqaffa a bet currently with any eye on the market
8. 8 = 10/3 (5/1) Azam a bet currently with an eye on the market
 
Musselburgh (going forecast GS with some G)
3.10 Market expected 09.50 nos 2, 3, 4, 5, 11 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 5/2, contender 5/1, not expected longer than 10/1.
2. 5 = 22/1+ req (9/1 market 09.50)
3. 7 = 7/1+ (7/1)
4. 10 = 3/1+ (4/1)
5. 12 = 2/1+ (11/4)
11. 10 = 3/1+ (5/1)

Comment: Currently 4, 5, 11 qualify as bets but waiting for market closer to off time.
 
What goes around comes around and this is how the thread began in 2017:

This is the intro to the chapter on value from Tim Drakeford in an RSB book:

Value for Money

The concept of betting value is nebulous. To this day, it is a controversial topic, even among the intelligentsia of the racing world. There are two camps: those who maintain that value is the only way to profit from betting, and those who say that the true odds are so difficult to calculate that the search should be for winners. If you back only winners, they are value at any price.

We at Racedata Modelling are firmly in the former camp, despite the presence among the opposition of such formidable figures as the late Phil Bull. As a mathematician, Phil recognized that theoretically the value argument was unassailable: if you back only true 50% chances and you back them at an average price of 5/4, you win handsomely. Let the average price drop to 4/5 and you lose. However, as a pre computer revolution mathematician he also understood the mind-boggling complexity of trying to work out by mathematical means the true chances involved in anything as complex as a horse race.

If the example today is typical of the market in USA racing it would appear that if you decide to play it looks best to ignore the market and aim for improved strike-rate given the horrendous over-round.

Gulfstream (going forecast turf firm) RP Spotlight selects No Word. ATR betting forecast over-round 167.1%. Market 09.35 over-round 162.2%.
9.25 Market expected 09.35 no's 2, 4, 5, 8, 13, 14, 15 indicating a win restricted to these.

2. 9/2 (09.35 mkt). 8/1 (mkt fair odds). 8/1 (ATR f/c fair odds ) Letmeno
4. 4/1 -7/1 - 13/2. Mystic Lancelot
5. 2/1 - 4/1 - 11/2. No Word
8. 15/2 - 13/1 - 11/1 Patrol
13. 8/1 - 14/1 - 10/1 Justinthenickoftime
14. 6/1 - 10/1 - 11/1 Kaufy Bean
15. 9/2 - 8/ - 6/1. Casino Grande

Comment: You can make up your own mind :)

ATR form verdict in comparison.
Patrol impressed when making a winning debut over an extended six furlongs at Aqueduct in February and this will reveal more while Hombrazo has won two of his last four and his latest success was impressive. However, NO WORD impressed when making a winning debut and will find this easier than the Grade 3 he was last seen in at Belmont in September.
Top Tip: NO WORD (5)
Watch out for: PATROL (8)
 
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Often a positive to light up a long inactive thread so best of for this attempt. Reading Tim Drakefords above i would say that any backer who has made it pay long term will have been obtaining aspects of value along the way. People will often have there own interpretation of what a value price is and this is good because these differences of opinion help create the value.

One of the hardest disciplines for any backer to implement and maintain is to swerve a bet when the price is considered poor value. The obvious cost being some missed winners, but i suspect that anyone who has recorded the outcomes over time will find its a beneficial discipline to acquire. Expressed in simple terms a punter can back plenty of winners and yet still show a loss on the year.
 
Jackform said:
The concept of betting value is nebulous. To this day, it is a controversial topic, even among the intelligentsia of the racing world. There are two camps: those who maintain that value is the only way to profit from betting, and those who say that the true odds are so difficult to calculate that the search should be for winners. If you back only winners, they are value at any price.
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Get the Forum back to racing well done Jack - we discussed this topic last year on the Over bet Under

www.theukbettingforum.co.uk/XenForo/threads/over-and-under-bet.109947/

I concluded that IMO
"If the work is done then your choices, true odds are your required odds - when staked as a percentage of the working bank - I believe the danger is in perceiving to many negatives and therefore pushing out required odds and forcing a no bet scenario . The power and quality of information about correct fav's being backed of the boards will vary with class and type of racing but the percentage of losing fav's remains fairly constant leaving a huge gap that we are in danger of talking ourself's out of."
 
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