*tom*
Gelding
Toes were designed to be stepped on - its wot starts debates.
Scooter's Football Ratings and Tips Thread 2015-2016
- Thread starter Scooter_Boy
- Start date
Toes were designed to be stepped on - its wot starts debates.
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Not if it's friends toes though
*tom* 
I'm also in regular contact with a couple of groups of like-minded souls who have got their acts together but have automated their interests in footy, repeating their work almost 'verbatim' here serves no purpose 'on-forum' as I can work with them and the projects elsewhere. It's likely that we will all arrive at similar selections from slightly different angles as all are stats/form based. I have gone back to a much older method that I can rate all of Europe in a few minutes rather than a couple of days of number crunching and research, it frees me up to cause more mayhem elsewhere
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
A straightforward take on season stats.
+/- 2.00 worth investigating/keeping an eye on Homes are positives Aways negative
+/- 3.00 should in theory go the way of the rating however Aldershot and Chester could be tighter.
+/- 2.00 worth investigating/keeping an eye on Homes are positives Aways negative
+/- 3.00 should in theory go the way of the rating however Aldershot and Chester could be tighter.
Scooter_Boy
Mare
A very encouraging weekend even though two of the English Conference hotshots failed to deliver. The selection when backed up with league position, goal difference and recent form (H Vs. A) the ratings may add another useful tool to the armoury.
J
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
I have a feeling that the H:A balance may not be ideal and maybe it's something that I will need to work on.
This evenings matches from the English Leagues
J
This evenings matches from the English Leagues
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
For purely system derived ratings I really cannot complain this past weekend or last evening although a couple of sides appear to be my nemseses. I'm also coming around to thinking that any chance of profits lie away from the straight 12X and the hackneyed odds from the layers and towards others take on value.
Attachments
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Saturdays English league ratings
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Sunday plus some Euro, I haven't checked the odds yet and I still need to look at the last week data for the BTTS angles.
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Most came out +/- 5% of each other and average odds of around 1.70, a SR of 59% I think it is at those odds to B/E and mine hover at a best 56% for BTTS. Thinking cap rather than drawing board beckons There could well be other avenues to explore.
atb, J
There could well be other avenues to explore.atb, J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Saturday sorted ratings 2+ Home sides
ENG 1 Chelsea 17:30 Tottenham 4.91
FRA 1 Monaco 16:10 Marseille 4.38
GER 1 Frankfurt 14:30 Dortmund 3.70
GER 1 Bayern Munich 17:30 Leverkusen 3.69
SPA 1 FC Sevilla 19:45 Valencia 3.24
ENG 3 Scunthorpe 15:00 Oxford Utd 3.15
GER 1 FC Köln 14:30 Augsburg 3.09
ENG 5 Lincoln City 15:00 Maidstone 2.86
ENG 5 Sutton 15:00 Aldershot Town 2.71
FRA 1 Caen 19:00 Guingamp 2.69
ENG 2 Reading 15:00 Bristol City 2.51
ENG 2 Brighton & Hove 15:00 Fulham 2.49
ENG 4 Carlisle Utd 15:00 Mansfield 2.44
ENG 2 Newcastle Utd 15:00 Blackburn 2.33
ENG 5 Dagenham & R 15:00 Barrow 2.33
ENG 5 Tranmere 15:00 Torquay Utd 2.01
ENG 1 Liverpool 15:00 Sunderland 2.01
Saturday 2+ Away sides
GER 1 Ingolstadt 14:30 Wolfsburg -2.54
ENG 4 Morecambe 15:00 Plymouth -2.62
ENG 5 Wrexham 15:00 Forest Green -2.78
I'll try and round up last weeks figures later.
GL what ever you bet today.
J
ENG 1 Chelsea 17:30 Tottenham 4.91
FRA 1 Monaco 16:10 Marseille 4.38
GER 1 Frankfurt 14:30 Dortmund 3.70
GER 1 Bayern Munich 17:30 Leverkusen 3.69
SPA 1 FC Sevilla 19:45 Valencia 3.24
ENG 3 Scunthorpe 15:00 Oxford Utd 3.15
GER 1 FC Köln 14:30 Augsburg 3.09
ENG 5 Lincoln City 15:00 Maidstone 2.86
ENG 5 Sutton 15:00 Aldershot Town 2.71
FRA 1 Caen 19:00 Guingamp 2.69
ENG 2 Reading 15:00 Bristol City 2.51
ENG 2 Brighton & Hove 15:00 Fulham 2.49
ENG 4 Carlisle Utd 15:00 Mansfield 2.44
ENG 2 Newcastle Utd 15:00 Blackburn 2.33
ENG 5 Dagenham & R 15:00 Barrow 2.33
ENG 5 Tranmere 15:00 Torquay Utd 2.01
ENG 1 Liverpool 15:00 Sunderland 2.01
Saturday 2+ Away sides
GER 1 Ingolstadt 14:30 Wolfsburg -2.54
ENG 4 Morecambe 15:00 Plymouth -2.62
ENG 5 Wrexham 15:00 Forest Green -2.78
I'll try and round up last weeks figures later.
GL what ever you bet today.
J
NigelRG
Sire
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Small headway once more backing both the rating and BTTS Yes, a couple of poor results bolstered by Frankfurt however; the three 'predictions' for the Away sides lost 0.40 pts.
Sunday
atb, J
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Scooter_Boy
Mare
The Away sides failing once again, only a small loss of 0.55 pts (all on paper naturally, I wouldn't try backing them with hard earned until there's enough data to support the ratings) overall another 'profitable' day with 2.24 pts and 2.79 pts without the Away data which looks ropey, maybe home advantage is making the difference as form-wise/ goal difference wise the Away sides have a significant advantage. With yesterday's performance there may be a chink of sunlight through the clouds.
Back 1pt Home win and BTTS is a bit of a risk, however numerous ratings of mine over an extended period have all suffered from well fancied sides failing to take advantage of superior form so this new approach may offer some relief in the longer term.
I did think to attempt to cover a further angle, but this can wait for now. Backing to win a point or risk a point has it's pro's and cons the former risking a rather large hit if it all goes pear shaped (again). The very short odds of the Home sides are too much of a gamble to risk to win one point, again only more data can settle the argument.
The odds offered by the more exotic offshore and foreign layers exceed those with the 'Majors' that I have accounts with, as I have noted far better odds with them although I have no knowledge of how they treat punters, depositing is usually as easy as pie, a successful punter trying to withdraw may face more complicated factors.
Utrecht V Feyenoord finished 3-3.
+12.67 pts Saturday and Sunday and possibly a rather fortunate weekend, more data will reveal the truth and with plenty to consider.
atb, J
Back 1pt Home win and BTTS is a bit of a risk, however numerous ratings of mine over an extended period have all suffered from well fancied sides failing to take advantage of superior form so this new approach may offer some relief in the longer term.
I did think to attempt to cover a further angle, but this can wait for now. Backing to win a point or risk a point has it's pro's and cons the former risking a rather large hit if it all goes pear shaped (again). The very short odds of the Home sides are too much of a gamble to risk to win one point, again only more data can settle the argument.
The odds offered by the more exotic offshore and foreign layers exceed those with the 'Majors' that I have accounts with, as I have noted far better odds with them although I have no knowledge of how they treat punters, depositing is usually as easy as pie, a successful punter trying to withdraw may face more complicated factors.
Utrecht V Feyenoord finished 3-3.
+12.67 pts Saturday and Sunday and possibly a rather fortunate weekend, more data will reveal the truth and with plenty to consider.
atb, J
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NigelRG
Sire
Scooter_Boy
Mare
A paper trial only
NigelRG ,
tonyafc I wouldn't attempt to put money on these until this time next season, and as I mentioned, the away ratings seem askew, it really does need a raft of data as we've all seen it only too often before - a purple patch to kick things off then the inevitable regression to the mean 
I'll be cross checking with Kev and Lee's ratings whenever I can..
Napoli play at home this evening and qualify 2+ Win Odds 1.33 and BTTS 1.83, Atl. Bilbao make the cut playing away with a similar rating of -2+ 2.85, 1.78. The latter on stats only do look the risk.
atb guys, J
Edit: I see Napoli are also on Kev's list today, this could be the beginning of a useful cross compiling exercise.
NigelRG ,
tonyafc I wouldn't attempt to put money on these until this time next season, and as I mentioned, the away ratings seem askew, it really does need a raft of data as we've all seen it only too often before - a purple patch to kick things off then the inevitable regression to the mean I'll be cross checking with Kev and Lee's ratings whenever I can..Napoli play at home this evening and qualify 2+ Win Odds 1.33 and BTTS 1.83, Atl. Bilbao make the cut playing away with a similar rating of -2+ 2.85, 1.78. The latter on stats only do look the risk.
atb guys, J
Edit: I see Napoli are also on Kev's list today, this could be the beginning of a useful cross compiling exercise.
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Scooter_Boy
Mare
Some conference action tomorrow evening before I forget
I'll also check Kev's ratings as per to see if there's any consensus
I feel that there will need to be a cut off point for the Home win odds, I envisage 1.67 which will give a B/E SR of around 60% or just under I reckon but it'll be data collection for the time being
J
I'll also check Kev's ratings as per to see if there's any consensus
I feel that there will need to be a cut off point for the Home win odds, I envisage 1.67 which will give a B/E SR of around 60% or just under I reckon but it'll be data collection for the time being
J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
Napoli like so many heavy odds on favourites concede a late equaliser on this occasion against Sassuolo. The scenarios were:
Home win to nil lose -0.67 pts,
scoring draw lose 0.05 pts
win with both sides scoring Ca. +1.26 or
lose outright -2pts
so a bit of a saver with the 82nd minute away goal and -0.05 pts this evening should have been better but could have been a worse outcome.
atb, J
Home win to nil lose -0.67 pts,
scoring draw lose 0.05 pts
win with both sides scoring Ca. +1.26 or
lose outright -2pts
so a bit of a saver with the 82nd minute away goal and -0.05 pts this evening should have been better but could have been a worse outcome.
atb, J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
A bit of a loss this evening dabbling in the Conference, the Dagenham loss a bit of a surprise (0-1) as Chester win 3-0 and Lincoln 1-0, perhaps a league too far as the away goals were in short supply other than where it wasn't wanted and best look to the upper echelons next time perhaps? -2.88 pts I think, will update.
atb, J
atb, J
Scooter_Boy
Mare
OK, we stand at +9.74 ignoring the ropey Away data which doesn't fully seem to allow for Home advantage. Disappointing evening , the expected dip in results not unexpected the culprit lying firmly with the crude staking strategy whilst accepting it has assisted thus far, I'm now looking/working on a more refined solution.
atb, John
atb, John