• Hi Guest, The forum will be moving hosts on 26 July and as such will be closed from Midday until the move has completed.
    As we will be with new hosts it may take a while before DNS get updated so it could take while before you can get back on the forum.
    I think it will take at least 4 hours but could easily be 48!
    Ark Royal
  • There seems to be a problem with some alerts not being emailed to members. I have told the hosts and they are investigating.
  • Hi Guest Just in case you were not aware I wanted to highlight that you can now get a 20% discount on Inform Racing.
    Simply enter the coupon code ukbettingform when subscribing here.
    We have a lot of members who are existing users of Inform Racing so help is always available if needed.
    Best Wishes
    AR
  • Sorry for the ongoing issues that you may have been experiencing whilst using the forum lately

    It really is frustrating when the forum slows down or Server Error 500 pops up.

    Apparently the hosts acknowledge there is a problem.
    Thank you for using our services and sorry for the experienced delay!
    Unfortunately, these errors are due to a higher server load. Our senior department knows about the issue and they are working towards a permanent resolution of the issue, however, I'd advise you to consider using our new cPanel cloud solutions: https://www.tsohost.com/web-hosting


    I will have to investigate what the differences are with what We have know compared to the alternative service they want us to migrate to.
    Keep safe.
    AR

runnerjp systems test

runnerjp

Colt
Hello all!

So I thought I would test my systems here for a few months to see how they go.

Quick ramble about me and what I have learnt first (Feel free to skip this bit)

I come from an IT background which means I can code. I started off in the football world as I found it more simple looking at 2 or 3 possible outcomes compared to horse racing. In football you can either have over or under, Win Draw Lose. Simple! In horse racing you have 1 winner but can have upto 15 horses competing for the 1 spot and this always took me towards football.

From a football point of view I learnt quick(Much like horse racing) that the Bookies odds are very good so you need to think a little different tan the whole "city have score in the last 5 out of 7 games .

In football I use Inplay data along with Past data with a bot to make by bets and trades. All good but I cant really post it on here as its pretty much after booming!
I have also worked on a model that I will be running here in the new season but for now its left me some free time.

Horses I trade in running - Its great as you don't need to know anything about the horse other then how does it look, how's the jockey going. Once again this is not anything I can post on here and not had much time to do recently.... so here rolls in the horse systems..............


I have multiple systems of which some i made a while ago and left trying to find a "better system". Other I have tweaked over the last month which has enabled me to whittle away the losers while keeping the winners and some I made over the weekend after reading a few books that gave me an idea or 2!

First of all I thought I thought I would post a few tips and what I have learnt and applying to my systems to perhaps help others along the way.

First of all I am not an expert!!! Some guys on here are very knowledgeable and if you ask you can gain an insight into that and this is some of what I have picked up.

My first tip is not to try and find that 1 million pound system. What I mean here is you can become obsessed with trying to find a system you can run that will give you weekly profit (you can do this btw) but what you will find is all your eggs are in one basket. What's better it to have a portfolio of systems that backs each other up. If one is having a bad day then the others can help!

Every system needs a reason behind it. (I will go into this at a later date)

The following rules I have started to follow are:

30% sr - As close as I can as I do have a few systems that have lower but the ROI is through the roof so i found this might be a balance.
30% ROI
4+ CHI score
A/E 1.3+


Anyway like I said I am not an expect , all the above could be wrong and in a month time in -100 and we can all discuss where it all went wrong :)


So below are todays bets -

2 are due to sire's
1 to do you young horses
1 to do with distance

1622448492341.png
 

Attachments

  • 1622449088095.png
    1622449088095.png
    14 KB · Views: 4
  • 1622449114996.png
    1622449114996.png
    14.3 KB · Views: 4

newcomer

Filly
Morning runnerjp runnerjp. Thanks for sharing this really informative post. Looking forward to following. I agree with much of what you've said.

Can I check the nature of this then: you're testing two systems here, one of which has a very high strike rate, one very low, and together you're aiming (roughly) for a 30% strike with 30% ROI? Or have I misunderstood?
 

runnerjp

Colt
newcomer newcomer - its actually multipel systems that have over 30% strike rate and above 30% roi.

My other system with less of a strike rate is here: Jumping on a gold vein!

So here is one system That is running today:

As you see the win rate each year of above 30% ... the RIO but one is above 30% and the BF a/e is above the 1.3 i am looking for.
1622473884284.png


Not many selections a year but going by the numbers they should follow suit this your and carry on giving me profit for the next few years.

add another 10/20 more of these systems together and you have a nice little strike rate :)
 

runnerjp

Colt
newcomer newcomer 100%

I have 6 filters in the above one -

1622479261226.png

That's 4 and I have 2 more which are just as simple ... so much so i have hid them or you would have the full system lol

I have tried to create the systems to have as little filter as possible- that way its very simple , you avoid back fitting and a couple of the good guys on here have said that their longest running systems are the simplest

The test itself (this is how i have been stung ALOT in the past) is just because its happened in the past , does not mean its sure to happen in the future
 

runnerjp

Colt
Here is an example of how I would put something together.

Trainers are creatures of habit (direct quote i got from here btw :) ) so with that in mind lets see if we have any trainers who like to pop out some winners in June

1622479688604.png

so if we just look at trainers we see one the right away jumps out

1622479822343.png

Not a bad start for blind backing!

The first thing I would do is check year on year to make sure its not all thrown off by 1 big result (the max odds kind of tells me no but lets check)

1622479934394.png

All looking good here so far but I want to see if i can remove anything keeping the winners but removing the losers!

1622480022474.png

So some people may see something like cheekpieces and say its not making profit and remove it. Well i think the the other way round here as in - its not doing any harm and could produce 1 winner next time and bring it into profit so i will leave it!

1622480364409.png
But when looking at class 5 races look at those stats!

1622480428864.png
Year on year its rather level so shows me this could be his aim every year - get some good horses out in class 5 runs!

1622480475264.png

And here we have a possible system :)
 

newcomer

Filly
Thanks runnerjp runnerjp. This is where I get a little wary (and why it's great to test) as these numbers are so small as to suggest coincidence/good fortune. I generally avoid any system reliant on individual trainers/jockeys unless there's an idea behind it - if Murtagh is targeting horses in June/Class 5 races then great. But if not... why June? Why Murtagh? Why class 5?
 

runnerjp

Colt
very true newcomer newcomer and this was little test to show people what I have learnt and what can be achieved. I actually made up that "system" on the spot while typing it out.

1622527925610.png
Its not as if he just had a lump of them running in just as they are spread through year but the sr jumps up.

and like i said just following him blindly for me has been in in route to something no one has possibly sucked any value out of.

1622528041376.png
I suppose the thought here is i run this over june ... see how it goes and if shows a profit and same pattern again i shall be brave enough to but some cash on it.

I wonder if not always knowing the story of a pattern helps as its harder to explain for everyone and hence why its not had its odds adjusted to suit?

Anyway like I said - I am not why the expert here by any means :)
 

newcomer

Filly
Thanks runnerjp runnerjp - very best of luck with them.

A potentially useful test is to run the same breakdowns for years prior to last year (eg 2017-2019) and see how those then performed in 2020. Or 2016-2018 for 2019 and 2020. If they're still profitable in 2020 then that would be quite promising.
 

runnerjp

Colt
newcomer newcomer great advice - thats exactly what i tried to do but last years racing was an off year due to the lockdowns so took some leeway and was happy if some broke even.

A day of nearly yesterday!

Wings of war 2nd
Rectory 3rd
Imperial 3rd
Fathersday 2nd


Todays

1622619517662.png
 

runnerjp

Colt
Oh I must add in the background im checking each system to ensure it matches the output so not only checking the overall profit or loss but each system.... Thenni can pick out the ones who have sided with the research
 

runnerjp

Colt
1622656406607.png

All the value was sucked out on Gin On Lime but i will take bfsp!

o.45 for the win but -3 for losers!

-10.55 points :|
 
Last edited:

runnerjp

Colt
1622789731138.png
1622789751066.png
1622789772012.png


Hope for some profit today :)

BTW we have a 100pt imaginary bank with these and expect down swings. The data says it should be profitable so we keep going until my 100pt bank is kaput!
 

runnerjp

Colt
Legal Attack 2nd
Gelee 6th!
Centruan Steel 1st @ 7.2
Misstempo 1st @ 2.3 (i think... will need checking)

=-5.05 (Abetter day!)
 
Top