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Reversing The Form....

Yeah mick mick ...... excellent day just shy of +35 points on the day. Just need to keep the momentum going which is the tough part it would seem.
 
Racked up seven more for this afternoon for Reckless Abandon and not looked at the evening meets yet. Going with them all as I'm too scared to start messing with it after yesterday. No reason why I should TBH, but 20 runner nurseries aren't normally my thing, but maybe they should be. Puter says it's chances are better than the odds on offer so who am I to argue.
Strat' 1.30 Heronord 1pt win
Chep' 2.15 Correllian Star 1pt win
Strat' 2.40 Present & Counting 1pt win
Chep' 3.55 Lunar Landscape 1pt win
Chep' 4.30 Galactic Glow 1pt win
York 4.45 Lincoln Legacy 1pt win
York 5.20 Unequal Love 1pt win
I'll just be happy to break even from all this lot anything more's a bonus. Back later with CC.
 
Doesn't get much more binary than this. 0/7 on the day so far with 3 to come all at CC.
CC 7.05 Last Hoorah 1pt win
CC 7.35 Riot 1pt win
CC 8.05 Ask Peter 1pt win
 
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Disappointing day yesterday although there were a few places none of them managed to get their head in front. Today there are 4......
Newm' 3.50 Yellow Lion 1pt win
York 5.15 Bajan Bandit 1pt win
Ham' 5.45 Streetzoffilly 1pt win
Ham' 6.55 Struth 1pt win
 
Another disappointing day yesterday landing me with a run of 14 consecutive losers although, several ran into places so it's not as though I shouldn't be too surprised. Have to keep reminding myself of the reason as to why I called this version 'Reckless Abandon'.... the clue is in the name. Struggling today with either short priced fav's or ridiculously competitive cavalry charges and can't rationally arrive at a one horse conclusion. Also Goodwood is reporting soft ground and as luck would have it that's where my short list has had the most success with three horses all of which are reasonably priced, but that could just be down to the fact that there's only one of the three that ran close on good/soft, so now I'm thinking it might be best to use my soft ground veto and not get involved at all. So tough afternoon on the flat for me but there is still Windsor and Redcar left to look at for tonight. Only two I have left for this afternoon are both at Cartmel which is hosting a very good card by summer jumps standards and the races I'm in are grades 2 & 3 handicaps. Both likely to go off shortish but looking at the figures they are entitled to.

Cart' 4.00 Young Merlin 1pt win
Cart' 5.36 Judicial Law 1pt win

Back later after I've taken a look at Windsor and Redcar.
 
Young Merlin ends the drought @ 7.57 :handgestures-thumbup:........... but I took 6.4 earlier cos I thought it was a bargain and didn't expect it to drift. :stinker: I'll get the b'stards back next time :crazy:
 
Nothing floating my boat for tonight just Judicial Law in the 5.36 to play. So might treat my partner to a ruby tonight. Got to make the effort now and again. 😮
 
After taking out Goodwood due to the ground and a non runner at Yarm' I only have one left at Beverley to put up for today. Not gone completely unnoticed in the betting but should go off around the 7.0-7.5 mark I'm hoping.
Bev' 4.35 Hale End 1pt win
 
Going went soft at Beverley after the course was deluged half way through the meeting. So decided against backing it as the horse had had only one run on soft ground and it wasn't brilliant to say the least. Despite that the horse got backed in and only just went down by a flared nostril. That sums up soft ground for me. Unless you have inside information you might as well not bother. The going was good, good/firm in places when I put it up, so just exactly how soft the going actually was remains a moot point.
 
Cartmel comes to my rescue today (never thought I'd ever say that on here), but summer jumps appears to be doing well and the way the weather is at the moment nothing is for certain as far as the flat goes. It's somewhere between good and good to soft everywhere today so only god knows what it will actually turn out to be at any of the tracks.
Cart' 1.20 Arbennig 1pt win
Cart' 2.20 Sword Of Fate 1pt win
 
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A 2nd @ 8.96 for SOF was best that yesterday's two bets could manage. Four for today...........
Nb 3.05 Flying Spirit 1pt win
Nb 3.40 Cabinet Of Clowns 1pt win
Nb 4.50 Forest Demon 1pt win
Wc 5.15 Favori De Sivola 1pt win
Wc 7.55 Blue Sans 1pt win
 
Not so much as a place from mine for yesterday with the high spot of the day being the withdrawal of Blue Sans (7.55). At least it didn't cost me anything. Nothing from me for this afternoon/evening either and TBH looking at them I'm happy to take a back seat.
 
Another blank day for me. Not that I don't have anything it's the same old story of a lack of competitive events throwing up some very short fav's (too short for me anyway), and I'm all snagged out with the rest of them. Missed nothing yesterday with only one of them obliging (at 9/4) from a possible nine bets, so don't feel like I'm missing out on anything.
 
Just had a look at tomorrow's and with the possible exception of Salisbury it looks very much like more of the same.
 
Working on Reckless Abandon v1.2 here which I will be rolling out over September/October but it's a killer for time although as the days go by it will get easier as once it's done it's done, leaving less to do for the next day. So I will be putting up the evening meets later in the day so as to make it more manageable for the next couple of weeks. Afternoon bets to follow shortly just waiting on the database to update.
 
I didn't have anything to post on Friday afternoon and then after playing around with it for a while I thought it would be better if I made some more mod's. Good news is it's all done along with the jumps version too, bad news is that it took a hell of a sight longer than I thought it would. Also decided to start a new thread as this one is somewhat misleading as there is very little of the original concept left.
 
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Anything that starts with 'ignoring value' is doomed to fail. Better to start with, 'finding value' Its very simple. You study form and a race and see what has a chance, what is the best value amongst that pared down field, back it, go and collect. The difficulty is to assess form. And take no notice of what anyone else says. They just repeat the same old tropes. Work it out yourself. If you do it often enough it becomes second nature, so that you can assess a race very quickly. A typical Saturday takes me around 6 hours to arrive at 6 to 12 bets. Onto exchanges, back whats value. Always ignore hype. Challenge every assertion and remember the pundits make their money from having an opinion, not backing winners. I watched a pundit on youtube justify a selection by saying it had dropped steadily down the handicap all season. I looked it up. 3lb. repeat, 3lbs. The winner, which I backed had dropped 17lbs over a season and a half. And been unlucky on the wrong side in big handicaps. Yes, you might fancy a horse, something that you are too lazy to study, but to dress it up as some kind of logical selection shows the nonsense out there.
 
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