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Retriever's 'LAYS'

retriever

Gelding
Hi Guys,

If I may, I would like to run my own little thread testing out a few 'lay' bets.
As you know, when looking for a bet, it is sometimes easier to see if you can rule out what shouldn't win and then pick from the rest.

So with that in mind I am going to put up a selection (short price at forecast odds) and then select two horses to be the bets in that race.
I am not keen on laying the actual horse as I would hate to think I have won by having one of my four legged friends fall and get hurt......:(

I am going to record results to ISP (as a baseline), and I thought about rules for non-runners and the like (ie. voiding the race if there are non-runners etc.) but I am not going to bother with those either.

I am going to continue posting until a) I lose 50pts...….b) I'm up by 100pts........c) Six months have passed and I haven't made any headway...…..d) I get kicked off !!

They are 'rules' that I will be following, so this is technically a 'system'.

Nothing for today but possibly one for tomorrow.

The lay horse will be in Red.
The bets are in Blue.
 
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Hi Guys,

If I may, I would like to run my own little thread testing out a few 'lay' bets.
As you know, when looking for a bet, it is sometimes easier to see if you can rule out what shouldn't win and then pick from the rest.

So with that in mind I am going to put up a selection (short price at forecast odds) and then select two horses to be the bets in that race.
I am not keen on laying the actual horse as I would hate to think I have won by having one of my four legged friends fall and get hurt......:(

I am going to record results to ISP (as a baseline), and I thought about rules for non-runners and the like (ie. voiding the race if there are non-runners etc.) but I am not going to bother with those either.

I am going to continue posting until a) I lose 50pts...….b) I'm up by 100pts........c) Six months have passed and I haven't made any headway...…..d) I get kicked off !!

They are 'rules' that I will be following, so this is technically a 'system'.

Nothing for today but possibly one for tomorrow.

The lay horse will be in Red.
The bets are in Blue.
Good luck!!
 

retriever

Gelding
giuseppe_esq giuseppe_esq Thanks (fingers crossed or should I say 'paws' :D) and Happy Birthday celebrations to you...…:occasion-birthdaymulticolor:

EDIT : The above 'They are 'rules' that I will be following, so this is technically a 'system' should read 'There are 'rules' that I will be following, so this is technically a 'system'. Doh!
 
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retriever

Gelding
Hi Boots Boots Could you re-read my opening post again please :cool:

This is not your traditional Lay thread - I am having two bets against a horse that I think won't win.
A bit like having one of the Aces up your sleeve when playing poker with your mates - you have a statistical advantage...
 
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Chesham

Sire
Hi retriever retriever

It be less confusing if instead of lay the Fav you put False Favourite. Although you explained that you would not be laying the Fav it would read better.

Good luck with your new thread and nice to see an OS member starting a thread
 

Boots

Mare
Sorry retriever retriever I must be coming across as incredibly dense today but I've re read your 01 and it sounds like a dutching thread so why mention laying, then I re read 06 and it sounds like a head to head, I'm mystified can anyone enlighten me. Ha I've just re read 02 and it would seem to be a dutching thread.

Best of with the new thread and I concur with Chesham Chesham on the fact its good to see new members starting threads.
 

retriever

Gelding
Hi Chesham Chesham Yes, thank you - I should have used the words 'False Favourite'.
I didn't because they are not always favourites.
And with respect, I never used the word 'Favourite' or 'Lay the Favourite' in my OP - they are 'short price at forecast odds'.

My worry with laying these selections is that they are usually Favourites based on Forecast price but if the market catches on (and it usually does) they are at a larger price come the Opening shows in the morning.
(Not going to be the case with Monsieur Noir tomorrow I fear.....lol)

If the 'lay horses' are successful (and lose on the whole) the best scenario would be to back your fancy in the race the evening before.
 
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retriever

Gelding
Haha Boots Boots I guess it is a 'dutching' thread of sorts- but I didn't use that word because to 'dutch' means to win the same amount by betting two or more horses by adjusting stakes - which I am not doing.
Also, see post 02...…...2 x 1pt Win Singles at SP

PS. Thanks all for the Good luck wishes and after Monsieur Noir flies home tomorrow I hope you all won't forsake me!!
PPS. Anyone know what that Ferdy fellow means in post 07? I am still googling......I hope it's not rude....lol
 
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retriever

Gelding
In use it often means make a profit any winner level stakes mixed stakes just make a profit.
Yes, I think we both know what we both mean....and you are right of course...…..I've usually taken it to mean winning the same amount by splitting stakes according to the odds.

As per here :- Horse Dutching For Profits | Betting Dutch Introduction

A more sensible approach is to 'divide up your stakes' so that you will return the same profit regardless of the odds of the winning horse you dutched. If your worried that this method is too complicated, please don't be as I have added a simple free calculator to my site which will show you how much to place on each of your selections based on their odds.

I thought that by putting 'LAYS' in inverted commas in my title I would imply that this wasn't your traditional LAY thread.

Hey!! This is great!! Can't see myself being a Yearling for much longer at this rate...
 
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giuseppe_esq giuseppe_esq Thanks (fingers crossed or should I say 'paws' :D) and Happy Birthday celebrations to you...…:occasion-birthdaymulticolor:

EDIT : The above 'They are 'rules' that I will be following, so this is technically a 'system' should read 'There are 'rules' that I will be following, so this is technically a 'system'. Doh!
thanks for the Birthday wishes, thats very kind!!
 

markfinn

Sire
Hi Guys,

If I may, I would like to run my own little thread testing out a few 'lay' bets.
As you know, when looking for a bet, it is sometimes easier to see if you can rule out what shouldn't win and then pick from the rest.

So with that in mind I am going to put up a selection (short price at forecast odds) and then select two horses to be the bets in that race.
I am not keen on laying the actual horse as I would hate to think I have won by having one of my four legged friends fall and get hurt......:(

I am going to record results to ISP (as a baseline), and I thought about rules for non-runners and the like (ie. voiding the race if there are non-runners etc.) but I am not going to bother with those either.

I am going to continue posting until a) I lose 50pts...….b) I'm up by 100pts........c) Six months have passed and I haven't made any headway...…..d) I get kicked off !!

They are 'rules' that I will be following, so this is technically a 'system'.

Nothing for today but possibly one for tomorrow.

The lay horse will be in Red.
The bets are in Blue.
Hi Retriever - had to re-read the 1st post but now I it A question - Why not just 2 match bets - although the the odds would be less you dont have beat the field
 

mick

Sire
retriever retriever My take on your MO is you are looking to find a race with a false fav or market leader and then back two against it. ? I can see the good thinking behind this because feeling able to take the former out of the race immediately ( in theory) increases the value options and prospects.
 

retriever

Gelding
retriever retriever My take on your MO is you are looking to find a race with a false fav or market leader and then back two against it. ? I can see the good thinking behind this because feeling able to take the former out of the race immediately ( in theory) increases the value options and prospects.
Precisely.

markfinn markfinn I am going to probably appear to be very stupid here but, not so much, What are match bets? but Where do you do these?

If the two I am betting in the race are of short odds and the structure of the race allows it I may opt to do CSF instead of singles.
 

markfinn

Sire
Precisely.

markfinn markfinn I am going to probably appear to be very stupid here but, not so much, What are match bets? but Where do you do these?

If the two I am betting in the race are of short odds and the structure of the race allows it I may opt to do CSF instead of singles.
Match bets are where you back one to finish in front of the other. So if yours finishes 2 last as long as other is last you win. You can do these defiantly on Paddy Power Betfair used to google it
 

markfinn

Sire
As you defiantly use PP you can also definitely do them them there just checked on google . Got me thinking now perhaps they allow to do these as they will not allow any other bet - shame as I thought had a good site and best odds around . Going to try its been years since I have looked at the Lousy Bs but you never know
 
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