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Retriever's AW selections

retriever

retriever

Stallion
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There have been a few newly begun All-Weather threads on here recently, and with some proclaiming that they are finding it tough going at the moment, and so I thought I would see if I could hammer out my own AW system using HRB.

Took me four hours to do, and I have to say I am quite pleased with the result. I have yet to get to grips with creating systems that are profitable going back years but I may have something here. The only downside is that it only runs for 3 months of the year!! lol........October, November and December.
There is a good reason for this and because that reason is based on 'good reasoning' it could well have legs.......possibly four of them!!

Here are the yearly stats.

New AW system.png

Remember each year is only three months and this October it has yet to get off the ground. It has made a profit every year back to 2008 although some years are a lot better than others. Depends on whether we get a few low-end double-figure winners in the mix along the way.

Three months only......2½ now.....until the New Year. Doesn't work later than this.
If this ends with 30-40 points profit come the end then I will deem it a success.

The first bet is on Monday at Wolverhampton but as there are no odds yet, will wait until tomorrow evening or Monday morning.
The only 'moving' parts to this system are SP < 18/1 and trainer/jockey strike rates.

Wish me luck!!
 
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The first selection on the AW for this system. Bear in mind, of course, the s/r......hopefully above 25%.

Working to BFSP with 2% comms.

7.30 Wolv.......Atalanta Breeze

Currently around 12/1.

Just to add.......ISP must be below 18/1..........Horses above this price are 0 from 55 bets for this system.
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Atalanta Breeze ran 3rd at 11/1.
Got going a bit late and was closing down at the finish.

-1pt

Tuesday's selection is:-
3.35 Newcastle.........Yazaman
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Rose Grey 4th 3/1

-3 pt

I am already beginning to get bored with this 'system' :)

Fri 23rd
5.45 Dundalk........Hyde Park Barracks
7.45 Dundalk........Party Season
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Party Season wins at 5/2 ( bfsp 4.15 ) and wins in some style getting this system off the ground.

-0.91pts..........+3.09..........-1pt..........-3pts

No bets either tomorrow or Sunday.
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Finally some action here today.

Thurs 29th
3.45 Lingfield.........Jane Maple
3.45 Lingfield.........Moll Davis
8.30 Chelmsford........Bright Start
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Three losers today.

-3.91pts..........-0.91pts.................-3pts

Fri 30th
6.00 Dundalk.........Satin And Silk

Probably a bit boring to most people doing this kind of thread.....me included......lol
Still, soon be Christmas!!
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-4.91pts...........-3.91pts.................-1pt

No bet tomorrow - thankfully.
I think this system needs the flat season to have ended and better weather.
 
Action Hero was 3rd at 14/1.
Arabian Warrior clipped heels and fell.
Loxley won at 5/2 ( bfsp 3.68 )

-4.28pts...............-4.91pts b/f.............+( 2.68*0.98 ).................-2pt

No bets today.
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retriever retriever best of for your AW system could you elaborate on your good reason thinking behind the three month operational period and the < 18/1 ISP ? rule. A few years back i used to limit my AW interest to Oct - Mar inclusive but these days work the races of interest all year round. I am an avid record keeper and so far have found no difference profit wise between the winter - summer periods. Indeed some of my best AW winners have come during the peak turf flat season and i wonder if some stables view this as a prime time to pop one in at a price when most backers are focused on the turf racing.?
 
Hi mick mick The reason for the less than 18/1 rule is purely statistical. As mentioned above in my #4 post, horses for this system above 18/1 are 0 winners from 55 bets over the past thirteen years. This is now 0 from 57........2 more recently.
No doubt somewhere down the line an 80/1 shot may pop in, but until then, I'll leave them out.

As for an All-weather system, this is just one thread in the AW tapestry, and although I probably have enough 'secondary rules' to cover my 'tracks' I am a bit reluctant to mention the general angle here, on an open forum, for fear of losing my 'edge'. I expect people will be able to get the general gist of the method if they track my selections over time.

It may as yet, totally bomb out this year, but I have a feeling one or two double-digit winners are just around the corner, which will hopefully get my 30-40pt target.

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Weds 4th
5.35 Dundalk..........Erytheia
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retriever retriever my bad as i missed your post 4. Re protecting your edge tbh i was not seeking it but asked my questions to hopefully provoke some additional interest in the thread which you feared others might find boring ( your post # 11 ). No worries and best of. :)
 
mick said:
feared others might find boring ( your post # 11 )
Click to expand...
I meant more from the perspective of a 'losing' thread.........as there are many winning ones on here.
As I am not sharing the details of the system I am not expecting any discussion on my selections.

Perhaps later, if it fails badly, I can throw it to the floor and seek explanations as to why from fellow punters here.
And perhaps I should have put this in the 'tipping' thread.

Sometimes just a 'like' is plenty enough!!
 
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