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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2018

pawras

pawras

Stallion
Looking at the prices available is Enable really that much better than the rest or is it just hype and weight of money?

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It's a race I like to watch but I don't bet on in any serious manner.
The auto generated numbers on my site are below, I think I'd be more inclined to have 2 or 3 each way bets instead.

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ArkRoyal said:
On which horses?
Click to expand...

I think on my next 3 after Enable i.e.
Talismanic , Waldgeist , Kew Gardens

Just for a bit of entertainment while I watch the race, but Enable might live up to the hype and win it with Dettori like last year
 
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Longchamp excellent racing these are mine

1.20 Pink Dogwood
1.55 Boitron
3.05 Enable can not see her getting beat
3.50 Wild Illusion
4.25 Battaash will lead and play catch me if you can

Good Luck
 
Hi Pawras

I dont think its hype with Enable you only have to look at her record its one of the best horses i have seen .
 
pawras said:
I think on my next 3 after Enable i.e.
Talismanic , Waldgeist , Kew Gardens

Just for a bit of entertainment while I watch the race, but Enable might live up to the hype and win it with Dettori like last year
Click to expand...

O’Brien tried the same with Capri last year, and Leading Light.

Wouldn’t be keen on a 5yo, only 4 have won it since the war, and only 2 in the last 35 years. The last (Marienbard in 2002) only made his debut halfway through his 3yo season. Talismanic failed 2 years ago.

The weight allowance for 3yo colts has been cut to 6lb, the previous 8lb put them at an advantage.

3yo fillies are still receiving 10lb.

Sea of Class and Enable are fairly close given the weights.

16 of the last 19 winners had won a G1 by 2+ lengths. Only those two and Kew Gardens have done so.
 
Enable has had a less than ideal preparation with just the one run in 12 month's( not on turf)
key trends last ten years, 3 or 4 year olds 10 from 10, weight 9st 2lbs or less 10 from 10,Odds less than 33/1 10 from 10
That leaves
Enable 1/1
Sea Of Class 5/1 ( draw in 15 is a concern)
Kew Gardens 10/l (Strong stayer and will have pacemakers trying to set the race up for him).
The win odds on Enable @1/1 wouldn't tempt me to bet.
Kew Gardens @6/4 in the 4 to be placed market is tempting.
Good luck to anyone having a bet
 
nicksar said:
Enable has had a less than ideal preparation with just the one run in 12 month's( not on turf)
key trends last ten years, 3 or 4 year olds 10 from 10, weight 9st 2lbs or less 10 from 10,Odds less than 33/1 10 from 10
That leaves
Enable 1/1
Sea Of Class 5/1 ( draw in 15 is a concern)
Kew Gardens 10/l (Strong stayer and will have pacemakers trying to set the race up for him).
The win odds on Enable @1/1 wouldn't tempt me to bet.
Kew Gardens @6/4 in the 4 to be placed market is tempting.
Good luck to anyone having a bet
Click to expand...

The prep for Enable over the last year puts a slight question mark over it for me as well.
Out of the last 18 runs all winners had contended at least one group 1 race in the last year and all winners bar one had won a group 1 race in the last year, the exception Solemia in 2012 whose best win the previous 365 days had been a group 2.
 
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