Predicting price movements

[MySportsAI]

Amongst the modelling and system fraternities plenty of thought is devoted to finding winners or finding value bets but little is dedicated to predicting price movements. We all know about closing line value or you should do so predicting price movement with an acceptable degree of accuracy and movement will guarantee and long term profit. I have done some work on this and wondered whether others on here have considered it ?. For the more risk averse it can also be a trading opportunity

 

[tony spencer]

Yes Mark

 

[tony spencer]

Today
lay to lose £250 max liability per selection — today’s uploaded file for 2026-07-13 shows:

Target	Selections	Hits	Hit %	Profit/Loss
Target 8	17	14	82.35%	+£50.34
Target 10	17	13	76.47%	+£65.36

So today, Target 10 was best again:
Lay to lose £250 = +£65.36 profit
No commission included.
The losers / bad ones on Target 10 were:

Horse	Entry Lay	1-min Lay	Target 10 P/L
Point Cartwright	3.65	3.05	-£18.56
Maria Mes	8.60	6.40	-£11.31
Quatre Bras	5.50	5.00	-£5.56

One missed Target 10 but still made money at 1 minute:

Horse	Entry Lay	1-min Lay	Target 10 P/L
Cascade Hall	3.45	3.70	+£6.89

Best read: good day — 17 selections, 13 full Target 10 hits, only 3 actual losing trades on the £250 liability calculation.