Pars
- Thread starter twmills
- Start date
KACHY ?
Was pretty quick and as far as i know still holds the track record for lingfields 6f (polytrack) 1m. 8. 32s.....but how did he achieve such a good number ?
He made all and was clear turning into the straight but if we take the sectionals provided by ATR plus the early pace colour coding as being correct it surprises me to see that he was indeed the fastest horse for the first furlong but that's the only one.
Was the track particularly fast that day ?
Was the pace perfect ?
More likely it was a combination of both, i believe this is evident because those behind also did some solid sectionals as well.
Anyway it's a race well worth watching again
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Was pretty quick and as far as i know still holds the track record for lingfields 6f (polytrack) 1m. 8. 32s.....but how did he achieve such a good number ?
He made all and was clear turning into the straight but if we take the sectionals provided by ATR plus the early pace colour coding as being correct it surprises me to see that he was indeed the fastest horse for the first furlong but that's the only one.
Was the track particularly fast that day ?
Was the pace perfect ?
More likely it was a combination of both, i believe this is evident because those behind also did some solid sectionals as well.
Anyway it's a race well worth watching again
ATR Player | Replay | Saturday 02 Feb 2019 | 13:45 | Lingfield | At The Races
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13:45 | Lingfield | Saturday 2nd February 2019 | At The Races
13:45 | Lingfield | Saturday 2nd February 2019 | Betway Cleves Stakes (Listed)
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TheBluesBrother
Dam
So why would the race produce such fast numbers
TheBluesBrother , any thoughts ?
TheBluesBrother
Dam
The racing surface was running 23lbs per furlong fast over standard.So why would the race produce such fast numbers @TheBluesBrother , any thoughts ?
Mike.
Well that's interesting and it makes me wonder what the fastest ever above standard against the slowest ever might be?
I keep telling myself that the early pace is a huge factor when it comes to the final times but with numbers like 23lbs per furlong over standard i perhaps need to think again, after all this is fundamental to however we choose to find a bet including form reading.
My understanding was if you are using sec/fur going allowances and fast by 0.23 s/f then this would be approximately 23lbs for the whole race ?
I wouldn‘t have all my old sheets to hand but I used lbs as my going allowance unit and can’t remember going being faster than 15lb faster than standard very often on the all weather and that would be a going adjustment for the whole race not per furlong.
T tacker i‘ve mentioned before going allowance is vital when comparing times even on all weather surfaces, can’t just compare one time to another from a different meeting accurately without having data on how the going was helping or hindering horses on different days.
If you imagine 0.23 s/f is just that the going is helping 0.23 seconds per furlong on that day, compare those sectionals to those on a day where the going is slowing them down by 0.1 s/f and you can see you would have to add 0.33 seconds per every furlong time before you can realistically compare times from both days.
so many things can affect the going allowance on AWT , temperature, moisture, wind, how much they have had the harrow the surface and to what depth, how loose or compacted it is, has the surface degraded, have they recently re laid the course.
There is a lot more variance than you would expect.
So can we realistically accept any track records has being serious?
Firm to heavy going on turf has always struck me has being irrelevant in terms of reading form and it appears to have a similar effect on the all weather based on these calculations. What we’ve also discussed O Outlander is the early pace of a race having some sort of effect on the final times and I’m still unsure whether this can be taken into consideration?
Course records mean nothing, there are many course records set by lesser animals, going and pace distributions are key elements , final times are a product of how efficiently the race was run, even one furlong where they go too fast during the race will count for more time lost overall, one horse could do one thing for one furlong and destroy the whole race for another horse, messing around with pace is probably the biggest factor on results, you can watch horse that need the pace to collapse win and the run poorly next time when the pace is less frantic.
Found this post of mine on the forum not sure what type of ratings I was doing at the time if they were speed points or pounds but I had the going virtually neutral on 2nd Feb for Kachy race.
Kachy was very prominent in my list of fastest figures in Lingfield in that period.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Sometimes my terminology is suspect; I've attached the Excel sheet so you can review the formulas I used.
Mike.
Yes nothing wrong with your formulas or methods, just didn’t want T tacker to think the ground was speeding them up by 23 lbs per furlong instead of 0.23s/f , using multiplier of 100 that would be 23 lb for the whole race, I think some use 80 or 90 as the multiplier so even less, or entirely different methods.
TheBluesBrother
Dam
Kempton's AW - The clerk of the course always has the going description as Std Slw, since I have been compiling speed figures not once has it been that.
Newcastle AW - is the only AW course where Std-Slw (-0.25s/f) is a possibility, so many times, I have had to use 2 going allowances.
As a racing manager once stated you don't know what the racing surface will be until you turn up.
Mike.
Newcastle AW - is the only AW course where Std-Slw (-0.25s/f) is a possibility, so many times, I have had to use 2 going allowances.
As a racing manager once stated you don't know what the racing surface will be until you turn up.
Mike.
I suppose it is simple enough to ignore kempton's clerk of the course but that shouldn't excuse it, track conditions matter.
As for newc i recall that the stands side being favoured most days but now it varies or perhaps favours the otherside, personally i am wary that they can create different track speeds which must be of benefit for those in the know, you might think a racing manager would do his/her best to find out but when money is involved ??
11:40 | Lingfield | Saturday 3rd January 2026 | At The Races
11:40 | Lingfield | Saturday 3rd January 2026 | Read Meg Nicholls' Blog At betmgm.co.uk Fillies' Handicap
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You’re tapping into one of the most important frontiers in modern handicapping. Sectionals—fractional times within a race—let you see how a horse ran, not just how fast the final time was. Integrating them into speed figures turns raw times into something far more predictive.
Below is a clear, practical framework for doing it.
Speed figures (Beyer, Timeform, RPR, etc.) mostly measure final performance.
Sectionals measure energy distribution.
When you combine them, you can:
You start with a standard speed figure, then adjust it based on how fast or slow the early fractions were relative to par.
Process:
Example:
If the early pace was –10 lengths slower than par, the final time is artificially fast.
You’d subtract from the figure to correct for the easy setup.
If the early pace was +10 lengths faster than par, the final time is suppressed.
You’d add to the figure to reward the horse for surviving a hot pace.
These quantify how evenly a horse used its energy.
Common measures:
You then integrate these into your figure by:
Track variants usually adjust for surface speed across the day.
Sectionals let you refine this by identifying:
You can apply sectional-based variants to:
This produces a more accurate final figure.
Some handicappers build a combined figure that blends:
A simple weighting model might look like:
More advanced models use regression or machine learning to determine optimal weights.
Sectionals reveal hidden trips:
You can quantify the cost of these moves (e.g., lengths lost per second) and adjust the figure accordingly.
Final time alone hides how the horse achieved it.
Sectionals expose:
This is where the real edge lies.
If you want, I can walk you through building a step-by-step model for pace-adjusted speed figures or even help you design your own weighting system.
Below is a clear, practical framework for doing it.
What Sectionals Actually Add
Speed figures (Beyer, Timeform, RPR, etc.) mostly measure final performance.
Sectionals measure energy distribution.
When you combine them, you can:
- Identify horses who ran inefficiently but still posted a strong figure
- Spot horses who were flattered by a slow early pace
- Adjust for pace bias and race shape
- Project improvement when a horse gets a more suitable setup
Core Methods for Incorporating Sectionals
1. Pace-Adjusted Speed Figures
You start with a standard speed figure, then adjust it based on how fast or slow the early fractions were relative to par.
Process:
- Establish par sectionals for the class/distance/track
- Compare the race’s actual sectionals to par
- Apply a pace adjustment (positive or negative) to the final figure
Example:
If the early pace was –10 lengths slower than par, the final time is artificially fast.
You’d subtract from the figure to correct for the easy setup.
If the early pace was +10 lengths faster than par, the final time is suppressed.
You’d add to the figure to reward the horse for surviving a hot pace.
2. Energy Distribution Metrics
These quantify how evenly a horse used its energy.
Common measures:
- % Early: proportion of total time spent in the early fractions
- Finishing Speed %: final sectional vs. race average
- Turn-of-Foot Index: acceleration between sectional points
You then integrate these into your figure by:
- Upgrading horses with strong late energy in fast-run races
- Downgrading horses who only finish fast off slow paces
- Flagging horses who ran “against the race shape”
3. Sectional-Based Variant Adjustments
Track variants usually adjust for surface speed across the day.
Sectionals let you refine this by identifying:
- Races where the surface changed mid-card
- Distances where the rail or wind affected only certain segments
- Biases that only show up in specific parts of the race
You can apply sectional-based variants to:
- Early pace
- Mid-race fractions
- Final furlong
This produces a more accurate final figure.
4. Composite Figures
Some handicappers build a combined figure that blends:
- Final-time figure
- Early pace figure
- Late pace figure
- Efficiency score
A simple weighting model might look like:
- 40% final time
- 30% early pace
- 30% late pace
More advanced models use regression or machine learning to determine optimal weights.
5. Trip-Adjusted Figures Using Sectionals
Sectionals reveal hidden trips:
- Wide moves
- Mid-race surges
- Being checked or steadied
- Being forced to run inefficiently
You can quantify the cost of these moves (e.g., lengths lost per second) and adjust the figure accordingly.
Why This Works
Final time alone hides how the horse achieved it.
Sectionals expose:
- Horses who ran better than the clock shows
- Horses who ran worse than the clock shows
- Horses who are likely to improve dramatically next time
This is where the real edge lies.
If you want, I can walk you through building a step-by-step model for pace-adjusted speed figures or even help you design your own weighting system.